Economic Assessment and Systems Analysis of an Evolvable Lunar Architecture that Leverages Commercial Space Capabilities and Public-Private-Partnerships (original) (raw)
Abstract
This study's primary purpose was to assess the feasibility of new approaches for achieving our national goals in space. NexGen assembled a team of former NASA executives and engineers who assessed the economic and technical viability of an Evolvable Lunar Architecture (ELA) that leverages commercial capabilities and services that are existing or likely to emerge in the near-term.
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References (37)
- Evolvable Lunar Architecture Timeframe Event Milestone 2017 Lunar lander demonstration 2015-2017 DDTE of scouting / prospecting technologies for the landers 2018 Deployment in phased sorties for scouting operations 2019-2020 Launch and deployment of robotic prospecting assets 2015-2019 DDTE on Earth of ISRU capability 2020 Site selection for ISRU operations and base plant, including "Go/No-Go" decision for production of flight systems for lunar ISRU propellant systems. 2021 Begin robotic construction phase for launch/landing pads, power systems and infrastructure at chosen lunar site 2021 Human Lunar Landing at Equator 2023 Robotic setup and testing of ISRU demo operations at selected test site 2025 Begin testing of integrated ISRU production systems on Moon 2031+ Initial polar facility (propellant production) operations Evolvable Lunar Architecture 1982). Mr. Kraft came to NASA from its predecessor organization, the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA), serving as a member of the Space Task Group in 1958, which was entrusted with the responsibility for putting America's first man in space.
- Steve Isakowitz: Mr. Isakowitz is President of Virgin Galactic. Prior to that he was NASA Deputy Associate Administrator for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate, former CFO of the U.S. Department of Energy, and a former White House OMB manager with NASA oversight. He is the author of International Reference Guide to Space Launch Systems.
- David Leestma: Mr. Leestma is a former NASA astronaut, who most recently managed NASA JSC's Technology Transfer and Commercialization Office. He also served as JSC's Project Manager for the Space Launch Initiative, Assistant Program Manager for Orbital Space Plane, and Manager of JSC's Exploration Programs Office.
- Michael Lopez-Alegria: Mr. Lopez-Alegria is a former NASA astronaut and previously served as President of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. At NASA he served as ISS commander, and assistant director of flight crew operations.
- Thomas Moser: Mr. Moser served for over 40 years in various NASA positions in the development and operations of human space exploration, including Deputy Associate Administrator for Human Spaceflight and Space Station, first NASA Program Director for Space Station, and Director of Engineering at JSC. In the private sector he was V.P. of Space Systems at ANSER, and V.P. at Fairchild Space & Defense, and Executive Director of Texas Aerospace Commission.
- James Muncy: Mr. Muncy is the founder of PoliSpace, a space policy consultancy focused on the nexus of business, public affairs, and space technology. He has worked in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and on the Professional Staff of the House Science Committee's Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee.
- Gary Payton: Mr. Payton is a former NASA astronaut who served as Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force for Space Programs, and NASA Deputy Associate Administrator for Space Transportation Technology where he managed the X-33, X-34, X-37 and DC-XA projects. He is a Professor at the USAF Academy where he teaches Astronautical Engineering.
- Eric Sterner: Mr. Sterner is former NASA Associate Deputy Administrator for Policy and Planning and Chief of Strategic Communications. He is a former Staff Director for the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics.
- Will Trafton: Mr. Trafton is a former NASA Deputy Associate Administrator and Associate Administrator for human spacefight, former President of Boeing Sea Launch, former President of Kistler Aerospace, and former President of International Launch Services. He served as Chair of COMSTAC from 2006 to 2012. He is currently CEO at Evolvable Lunar Architecture Boston Capital Leasing.
- James Vedda: Mr. Vedda is senior policy analyst at Aerospace Corporation, and a former Associate Professor of Space Studies at the University of North Dakota. He is the author of Becoming Spacefarers: Rescuing America's Space Program and Choice, Not Fate: Shaping a Sustainable Future in the Space Age.
- Robert Walker: Mr. Walker is the former Chairman of the House Committee on Science and Technology, Chief Deputy Whip, and Vice Chairman of the Budget Committee. In 2001, he served as chair the Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry. In 2004, he served on the President's Commission on Implementation of the U.S. Space Exploration Policy. Gordon Woodcock: Mr. Woodcock has 60 years of experience in aerospace engineering, including over 100 technical papers and articles. He worked for Boeing, NASA, Space America, and Gray Research consulting on flight simulation development, image processing, propulsion, and space mission architectures. Evolvable Lunar Architecture End Notes i NASA, "Commercial Market Assessment for Crew and Cargo Systems Pursuant to Section 403 of the NASA Authorization Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-
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- David Mittman, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, www.ri.cmu.edu/pub\_files/2012/3/96.pdf xxxix Dispelling the myth of robotic efficiency: why human space exploration will tell us more about the Solar System than will robotic exploration alone, Ian A. Crawford, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Birkbeck College London, Astronomy and Geophysics, 2012, web.eecs.utk.edu/~leparker/publications/Handbook99.pdf xl Propellant Depot Alternate DRM 34B, Mission Risk, Reliability, and Availability Analysis HAT/Depot Team TIM (Preliminary), David L. Cheuvront, NASA, JSC S&MA (2011) xli Ibid xlii This distinguishes the PANY-NJ from organizations and agencies that depend upon federal appropriations for annual operations, such as the TVA during its first several decades of operation. The PANY-NJ clearly has received other types of intermittent government support, such as competitive grants and contracts. xliii "The Economic Impact of the New York-New Jersey Port Industry 2008", http://www.panynj.gov/about/pdf/reg-in-port-impact-2008.pdf xliv Interview of Huge Welsh by Charles Miller, April 17, 2012 xlv "History of CERN, Volume I (Launching the European Organization for Nuclear Research)", A. Hermann, J. Krige, U. Mersits, D. Pestre, Elsevier Science, 2000 xlvi "Shutdown Looms at Pioneering American Atom Smasher", MSNBC, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44706228/ns/technology\_and\_science- science/t/shutdown-looms-pioneering-american-atom-smasher/ xlvii "The Crisis of Big Science", Steven Weinberg, New York Review of Books, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/may/10/crisis-big-science/ xlviii http://www.tva.com/abouttva/keyfacts.htm#howfunded xlix TVA at Age Fifty-Reflections and Retrospect", http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/975916?uid=16801048&uid=3739600&uid =2&uid=3&uid=16746128&uid=67&uid=62&uid=3739256&sid=56028100503 Evolvable Lunar Architecture l Reagan criticizes TVA, PBS Newshour, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/biography\_pages/reagan/biography.html li Barry Goldwater proposes to sell TVA, NYTimes, http://www.nytimes.com/books/01/04/01/specials/goldwater-obit.html lii "Why Big Government Infrastructure Projects Go Wrong: Lessons from the Tennessee Valley Authority", Reason magazine, Powell, March 2, 2009, http://reason.com/archives/2009/03/02/how-big-government-infrastruct liii "Billion Dollar Technology: A Short Historical Overview of the Origins of Communications Satellite Technology, 1945-1965", NASA History Office, http://history.nasa.gov/SP-4217/ch9.htm liv AT&T corporate history website, http://www.corp.att.com/attlabs/reputation/timeline/62trans.html lv "Communication Via Satellite: A Vision in Retrospect", Delbert Smith, page 124, http://books.google.com/books?id=V3Iwri7jZx8C&pg lvi "Communication Via Satellite: A Vision in Retrospect", Delbert Smith, page 58, http://books.google.com/books?id=V3Iwri7jZx8C&pg
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