ENERGY TRANSITION AND CHALLENGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY (original) (raw)

Abstract

This article deals with the debate on the challenges generated by the Energy Transition. " Energy Transitions " are based on the notion that an energy resource, or a group of energy resources, dominates the market for a period or era, until it is challenged and eventually replaced by other(s) resource(s) (Melosi 2010). Since the 1970s, when the world watched two major oil crises, states and corporations began discussing alternatives that could replace oil as the basis of the global energy mix. In recent years, this process has intensified. The use of clean energy sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, biofu-els) emerge as possible replacements for fossil fuels. However, this is not an easy transition. There are many questions about the ability of these new sources to meet world energy demand, which is growing. In addition, proposals that include increased use of new forms of fossil fuels (shale gas, tar sands, ultra-heavy oil) keep the world dependent on finite fuels and generate huge impacts on the environment. In this sense, the WEC seeks to discuss possible solutions to this energy challenge. Ie, how to perform the transition to a post-oil era without affecting energy supply, maintaining equitable distribution of electricity and without destroying the environment.

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the likelinood or conflicts in the twenty-nrst century, marking disputes between different States’ energy security strategies, especially if they are willing to dispute the last largest reserves of oil and gas (Fuser 2008). With the increase in oil prices in the 2000s, this debate has been resumed, partly by new environmental pressures, but mainly due to limitations presented by the actual energy model. The current energy mix is composed by 86.9% of fossil energy, with 33.1% of oil, 29.9% of coal and 23.9% of natural gas (British Petroleum 2013). In percentage terms, the global energy mix reduced dependence on fossil fuels about 10% over the last 30 years, which was at 95% in 1973. Crude oil remains the main energy resource; however, their representation in the overall mix was not so low in 13 years. However, considering that the world has doubled the total energy consumption, in reality the dependence on these energy sources has increased in absolute terms (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Although nuclear energy in its current stage of technological development is still dependent on finite energy resources (uranium, plutonium, thorium), this alternative to fossil fuels increased its participation in the global energy mix to 4.5%, while hydropower is at 6.6% and other renewable energies (wind, solar, geothermal) reached 1.9% of the total primary energy produced (British Petroleum 2013). Therefore, as it can be seen, the current model, based on fossil fuels, can be considered “monoenergetic’, i.e., one major source is responsible for most of the energy produced (Nogueira 1985).

the likelinood or conflicts in the twenty-nrst century, marking disputes between different States’ energy security strategies, especially if they are willing to dispute the last largest reserves of oil and gas (Fuser 2008). With the increase in oil prices in the 2000s, this debate has been resumed, partly by new environmental pressures, but mainly due to limitations presented by the actual energy model. The current energy mix is composed by 86.9% of fossil energy, with 33.1% of oil, 29.9% of coal and 23.9% of natural gas (British Petroleum 2013). In percentage terms, the global energy mix reduced dependence on fossil fuels about 10% over the last 30 years, which was at 95% in 1973. Crude oil remains the main energy resource; however, their representation in the overall mix was not so low in 13 years. However, considering that the world has doubled the total energy consumption, in reality the dependence on these energy sources has increased in absolute terms (Kerr Oliveira 2012). Although nuclear energy in its current stage of technological development is still dependent on finite energy resources (uranium, plutonium, thorium), this alternative to fossil fuels increased its participation in the global energy mix to 4.5%, while hydropower is at 6.6% and other renewable energies (wind, solar, geothermal) reached 1.9% of the total primary energy produced (British Petroleum 2013). Therefore, as it can be seen, the current model, based on fossil fuels, can be considered “monoenergetic’, i.e., one major source is responsible for most of the energy produced (Nogueira 1985).

Image 1 - Energy demand by 2035 and share of global energy consumption growth 2012-2035

Image 1 - Energy demand by 2035 and share of global energy consumption growth 2012-2035

Source: Developed by the authors based on data from British Petroleum (2013).

Source: Developed by the authors based on data from British Petroleum (2013).

Moreover, hydropower has advantages in regards to the possibility of its storage, which may be accomplished through the construction of large artificial dams. This differentiates it from other forms of energy production such as solar or wind, whose production does not allow storage. Also in these terms, when compared to other energy sources that also enable storage, such as biomass, hydroelectricity has a relatively lower cost (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Sauer and Carvalho 2013). However, the construction of artificial lakes and dams has environmental and social costs, especially due to the fact that the flooding of large areas implies the displacement of several species of animals and riparian populations, as well as the destruction of large green areas. On the other hand, the hydrological changes caused by water storage enables the construction of waterways, facilitating transport and logistics, which in some regions may even facilitate regional integration (World Energy Council 2014).

Moreover, hydropower has advantages in regards to the possibility of its storage, which may be accomplished through the construction of large artificial dams. This differentiates it from other forms of energy production such as solar or wind, whose production does not allow storage. Also in these terms, when compared to other energy sources that also enable storage, such as biomass, hydroelectricity has a relatively lower cost (Kerr Oliveira 2012; Sauer and Carvalho 2013). However, the construction of artificial lakes and dams has environmental and social costs, especially due to the fact that the flooding of large areas implies the displacement of several species of animals and riparian populations, as well as the destruction of large green areas. On the other hand, the hydrological changes caused by water storage enables the construction of waterways, facilitating transport and logistics, which in some regions may even facilitate regional integration (World Energy Council 2014).

Image 3 - Uranium Installed Capacity by Region. ‘The possibility of nuclear energy becoming an alternative in the Energy Transitio lies in the possible use of more conventional radioactive elements, other than uraniur and plutonium, or in changes in the production process of this energy. Uranium an plutonium can be used for purposes other than the production of energy, i.e. fe war purposes. Moreover, uranium reserves are small compared with world demanc and are concentrated in specific regions such as Oceania, which accounts for about third of the world reserves (World Nuclear Association 2014). Another problem is th residue derived from the uranium enrichment process since nuclear waste is high dangerous, either by security issues, or for environmental reasons. In this sense, the use of metals such as thorium can prove to be a paradigr

Image 3 - Uranium Installed Capacity by Region. ‘The possibility of nuclear energy becoming an alternative in the Energy Transitio lies in the possible use of more conventional radioactive elements, other than uraniur and plutonium, or in changes in the production process of this energy. Uranium an plutonium can be used for purposes other than the production of energy, i.e. fe war purposes. Moreover, uranium reserves are small compared with world demanc and are concentrated in specific regions such as Oceania, which accounts for about third of the world reserves (World Nuclear Association 2014). Another problem is th residue derived from the uranium enrichment process since nuclear waste is high dangerous, either by security issues, or for environmental reasons. In this sense, the use of metals such as thorium can prove to be a paradigr

From the study of the Trilemma Energy, World Energy Council (2013) produced a report with scenarios for the situation of global energy in 2050 and launched 10 key messages:

From the study of the Trilemma Energy, World Energy Council (2013) produced a report with scenarios for the situation of global energy in 2050 and launched 10 key messages:

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