What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy? (original) (raw)

China's changing growth pattern

Bank of England Quarterly …, 2011

... By Ed Dew and Jeremy Martin of the Bank's International Economic Analysis Division, Julia Giese of the Bank's Prudential Policy Division and Gabriele Zinna ... of the past 30 years and, in particular, in the decade leading up to the world financial crisis (Branstetter and Lardy (2006 ...

The estimation of China's economic growth rate

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement

Many scholars of the Chinese economy have concluded that official estimates of China's GDP growth rate are too high. Journalists have popularized this view, but we disagree. We use a method that examines several strategic indicators that are suggested by basic social accounting principles and conclude that principal components of these indicators reflect the movement of official estimates of the Chinese economy. This conclusion holds whether one uses annual, quarterly or monthly indicators. It cannot be claimed that we have proved that GDP as officially measured is correct. No one knows the correct estimate; that is the whole point of showing how different such estimates can be, depending on how they are calculated, and this is true the world over. Our estimates survive diagnostic tests, within-sample interpolations and outside-sample extrapolations in monthly, quarterly, and annual time frames. It is reasonable to expect that introduction of quality adjustments will justify higher estimates.

A medium-term outlook for the Chinese economy

MKI POLICY BRIEF, 2023

In 2023, the Chinese economy exhibited mixed results, with analysts correspondingly divided between two extremes regarding the future of the Chinese economy. One viewpoint suggests that China will continue its rapid growth and will soon surpass the United States, while analysts of the opposite opinion argue that China is vulnerable and could collapse at any moment. The assessments are also influenced by propaganda, making clarity even more challenging. This analysis examines the reserves of the Chinese economy, the growth factors and opportunities that are still available, and how they affect the medium-term prospects of the country. Extensive and intensive growth factors, significant governmental leeway, the resilience and flexibility of the society, the central role of innovation, and the peculiarities of the Chinese economy indicate that China can continue to grow in the coming decade. However, the pace of expansion might decelerate further.

A Contemporary View of the Economic Growth in China

The present paper concentrates on the rapid development of the Chinese economy in the last three decades on the back of the thrust in the exports with the use of one of the largest pool of labour in the world which is now gradually depleting as the economy is approaching full-employment and the aging-population which has made labour scarce and is pushing wages higher, thus making the economy lose competitiveness. The fast growth-rate of the last three decades has resulted in bloated private, public and foreign debt and is reinforcing expectations of bubble in the specific sectors such as housing and excess-capacity in others, which has turned the economy slow in the presence of low demand in the most of the developed countries. The Chinese economy is trying is gain from depreciation and higher nominal exchange-rate which might start retaliatory currency-adjustments in the trading-partners economy to lower trade-deficit, therefore China is eventually trying to reorient itself from an export-led economy to a domestic-demand driven economy which could lift imports and global-growth.

Sustaining China's Economic Growth in the Twenty-first Century (review)

China Review International, 2005

As is well known, the People's Republic of China has experienced rapid economic development since liberalization began almost twenty-five years ago. In fact, the broadest measure of its economy, GDP, has increased by almost 0 percent a year since 980, the fastest multi-decade rate of economic growth of any country in the last hundred years. 1 But can China's rapid pace of economic development continue? This book attempts to provide a partial answer to this question by focusing on a related question, "How should economic reforms and openings-up be further enhanced so that high economic growth could be maintained?" (p. ). Sustaining China's Economic Growth in the Twenty-first Century originated in a conference of the same name sponsored by the Chinese Economic Association (UK) in 2000. The editors are Shujie Yao, professor and chair of economics at the Middlesex University Business School as well as consultant for the World Bank, and Xiaming Liu, senior lecturer in international business at the University of Aston Business School and managing editor of the Journal of Chinese Economics and Business Studies. The twenty-three contributors are mostly academics with extensive research interests in China. The editors make it clear that the intention of the book is not to provide a complete overview of China's reforms but rather to bring together a series of studies related to the sustainability of China's economic growth. These studies are organized around three topics: general economic development; industry, agriculture, and the financial market; and openness and social issues. There are eighteen figures, sixty-six tables, and an index. The first chapter in the section on general economic development, "Confronting Restructuring and Stability" (pp. 3-40), by Wing Thye Woo of UCLA, focuses on the 996-999 downturn in the Chinese economy. The author seeks to determine not only the causes of the downturn but also the long-term implications of the policies adopted by the authorities to deal with it. This very interesting study concludes that the downturn was caused not by China's structural problems, such as the increases in SOE losses and in the nonperforming loans of the state banks, but rather by the combined effects of the government's austerity program and a collapse in export markets as a result of the Asian financial crisis. However, the author does believe that failure to correct China's structural problems will cause a slowdown in the near future. John Wong, from the National University of Singapore, compares China's development to that of the other East-Asian economies and analyzes the impact of

Whither China's Economic Growth

Policy Center for the New South - Policy Brief PB - 53/22, 2022

Chinese economic figures released since August's beginning have shown a slowdown in its growth. New Omicron coronavirus outbreaks in the context of the Covid-zero policy, the housing slump and heat waves have been, decelerating the economy's pace.

The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown? *

Asian Economic Papers, 2007

The Chinese statistical authorities recently revised the Chinese GDP level and real growth rate for the period 1993-2004 following China's first national economic census for 2004. However, the methodology used in their revision is opaque. Using a trenddeviation interpolation approach, this study has managed to replicate the basic procedures of the revision and reproduced the official estimates. Through this exercise, we have found that the estimates that could be obtained by the straightforward interpolation procedures were significantly modified. Based on a political economy argument, we attempt to explain why the revision had to leave the growth rate of 1998 intact and why it had to bypass the price issue and directly work on the real growth rate revision. Based on previous studies and other observations, we also question the census results on non-service industries.