Portfolio diversification in energy markets (original) (raw)
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Portfolio optimization of financial commodities with energy futures
Annals of Operations Research
The recent growth in economic and financial markets has brought the focus on energy derivatives as an alternative investment class for investors, financial analysts, and portfolio managers. The financial modeling and risk management of portfolios using the energy derivatives instrument is a requirement and challenge for researchers in the field. The energy and other commodity futures force the expert investors to investigate the broader investment spectrum and consequently diversify their portfolios using the futures instruments. Going beyond the conventional portfolios and developing out-of-the-box strategies that comply with the changing financial and economic advancements are the keys to long-term sustainability in the financial world. This study investigates the impact of diversification with five energy futures from January 2011 to July 2020 on three traditional commodity futures portfolios. The results show that diversification increased the returns while simultaneously reducing the portfolio volatility in all portfolios. The diversified portfolios provided higher returns than the traditional portfolios for the same level of risk. This study also revealed that the results might improve when a short position in the futures contracts is allowed. Moreover, we conclude
The risk premia of energy futures
Energy Economics, 2021
This paper studies the energy futures risk premia that can be extracted through long-short portfolios that exploit heterogeneities across contracts as regards various characteristics or signals and integrations thereof. Investors can earn a sizeable premium of about 8% and 12% per annum by exploiting the energy futures contract risk associated with the hedgers' net positions and roll-yield characteristics, respectively, in line with predictions from the hedging pressure hypothesis and theory of storage. Simultaneously exploiting various signals towards style-integration with alternative weighting schemes further enhances the premium. In particular, the style-integrated portfolio that equally weights all signals stands out as the most effective. The findings are robust to transaction costs, data mining and sub-period analyses.
Modeling, Risk Assessment and Portfolio Optimization of Energy Futures
This paper examines the portfolio optimization of energy futures by using the STARR ratio that can evaluate the risk and return relationship for skewed distributed returns. We model the price returns for energy futures by using the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1)-PCA model with stable distributed innovations that reflects the characteristics of energy: mean reversion, heteroskedasticity, seasonality, and spikes. Then, we propose the method for selecting the portfolio of energy futures by maximizing the STARR ratio, what we call "Winner portfolio". The empirical studies by using energy futures of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas traded on the NYMEX compare the price return models with stable distributed innovations to those with normal ones.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020
This paper investigates returns and volatility transmission between SPGCE (index of clean energy stocks), SPGO (index of oil and gas stocks), two non-renewable energy commodities (natural gas and crude oil), and three products of crude oil distillation (heating oil, gasoline, and propane). We estimate a VAR(1) asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH(1,1) using daily U.S. data from March 1, 2010, to February 25, 2020. The empirical findings reveal a vast heterogeneity in spillover patterns of returns, volatilities, and shocks. We employ the empirical results to derive optimal portfolio weights, hedge ratios, and effectiveness measures for SPGCE and SPGO diversified portfolios. We find dynamic diversification advantages of energy commodities, especially heating oil, for energy-related stock markets. We also find that SPGCE and SPGO stocks possess the highest average optimal weight and hedging effectiveness for each other, implying that the positive performance of SPGCE stocks considerably compensates for the negative performance of SPGO stocks. For investors and regulators, the advancement and implementation of clean energy programs and policies, while reducing environmental debt and enhancing "green" growth and sustainable development, provide instruments and strategies to hedge the equity risks inherent in the oil and gas industry.
Does 'Paper Oil' Matter? Energy Markets’ Financialization and Equity-Commodity Co-Movements
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
We construct a uniquely detailed, comprehensive dataset of trader positions in U.S. energy futures markets. We find considerable changes in the make-up of the open interest between 2000 and 2010 and show that these changes impact asset pricing. Specifically, dynamic conditional correlations between the rates of return on investable energy and stock market indices increase significantly amid greater activity by speculators in general and hedge funds in particular (especially funds active in both equity and energy markets). The impact of hedge fund activity is markedly lower in periods of financial market stress. Our results support the notion that the composition of trading activity in futures markets helps explain an important aspect of the distribution of energy returns, and have ramifications in the debate on the financialization of energy markets.
Jump spillovers in energy futures markets: Implications for diversification benefits
Energy Economics, 2012
In this paper, we investigate jump spillover effects of five energy (petroleum) futures and their implications for diversification benefits. In order to identify the latent historical jumps for each of these energy futures, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate a jump-diffusion model for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities of pairs of energy futures and the probabilities that jumps in crude oil (and natural gas) cause jumps or usually large returns in other energy futures. In all cases, we find significant evidence that the diffusion-jump process is a better characterization for energy futures prices. We further find that jump spillovers significantly reduce the diversification benefits of an energy futures portfolio in a tranquil (rather than crisis) period.
Energy Commodities: A Review of Optimal Hedging Strategies
Energies, 2019
Energy is considered as a commodity nowadays and continuous access along with price stability is of vital importance for every economic agent worldwide. The aim of the current review paper is to present in detail the two dominant hedging strategies relative to energy portfolios, the Minimum-Variance hedge ratio and the expected utility maximization methodology. The Minimum-Variance hedge ratio approach is by far the most popular in literature as it is less time consuming and computationally demanding; nevertheless by applying the appropriate multivariate model Garch family volatility model, it can provide a very reliable estimation of the optimal hedge ratio. However, this becomes possible at the cost of a rather restrictive assumption for infinite hedger's risk aversion. Within an uncertain worldwide economic climate and a highly volatile energy market, energy producers, retailers and consumers had to become more adaptive and develop the necessary energy risk management and optimal hedging strategies. The estimation gap of an optimal hedge ratio that would be subject to the investor's risk preferences through time is filled by the relatively more complex and sophisticated expected utility maximization methodology. Nevertheless, if hedgers share infinite risk aversion or if alternatively the expected futures price is approximately zero the two methodologies become equivalent. The current review shows that when evidence from the energy market during periods of extremely volatile economic climate is considered, both hypotheses can be violated, hence it becomes reasonable that especially for extended hedging horizons it would be wise for potential hedgers to take into consideration both methodologies in order to build a successful and profitable hedging strategy.
Speculation, risk aversion, and risk premiums in the crude oil market
Journal of Banking and Finance, 2017
Speculative activity in commodity markets has increased dramatically since 2002. This paper investigates how aggregate risk aversion and risk premiums in the crude oil market covary with the level of speculation. Using crude oil futures and option data, we estimate aggregate risk aversion in the crude oil market and find that it is significantly lower between 2005 and 2008 when speculative activity increases dramatically. Risk premiums implied by the state-dependent risk aversion are also negatively correlated with speculative activity and are on average lower and more volatile during this period. These findings, together with the increased index fund and managed-money infusion in the commodity market, suggest that speculators who demand commodity futures for the purpose of portfolio diversification are willing to accept lower compensation for their positions. Decreasing speculation after 2009 amid increased producers' hedging demand has a reverse impact on the market risk aversion and risk premiums.
Futures markets, production and diversification of risk
Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 1985
This paper lays out a framework for the analysis of the risk transfer role of speculators on futures markets and the impact of their trading on the production decisions of firms. We show that when speculators diversify their portfolios over a large number of markets, the equilibrium risk premium converges to an asymptotic premium, the behaviour of which is determined by the stochastic dependence between the spot price and an index of average returns on other markets-the idiosyncratic risk arising from the variability of the spot price itself is diversified away. In the independent and negatively dependent cases this diversification of risk leads to a Pareto improving property.