Fuzzy logic for pipelines risk assessment (original) (raw)
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Fuzzy logic in risk assessment of failures and accidents for trunk oil pipelines
The majority of existing methods of risk assessment of trunk oil pipelines is based on probability and classical set theory. These methods do not take into consideration the fact that any complex system, such as trunk oil pipelines, is a dynamic system with a set of uncertain data. The results of risk assessment (likelihood), obtained by the traditional methods, don’t reflect the real situation about the condition of system. The article presents a methodical approach to identification of risk factors sources and assessment of the level of risk based on system analysis and fuzzy set theory, and this approach allows us to receive output conclusion about risk level in dynamic area of a complex system. The principles of fuzzy logic in the evaluation of diverse parameters of risk factors allow bringing them to a qualitative common denominator. As a result, we can perform comparative research of separate risk factors and also summarize them for assessment of current risk level of trunk oil pipelines. We reviewed causes of incidents and failures on trunk oil pipelines and have identified the most important risk factors that have greatest consequences. Risk factors in our method are determined by fuzzy set rules, which are a result of data analysis (accident reports, failure records for the similar pipelines) and experts evaluation of related input parameters. Risk factors and their parameters are classified in accordance with their relation to different environment and life-cycle stages. The article presents an example of evaluation of risk factor . Consequently, the indicator of risk factor was calculated in accordance with procedure of Mamdani fuzzy inference system (using the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Designer). This method of risk assessment brings high opportunities for identification of the pipeline segments, where the risk level is most probably high and helps the decision maker to take remedial actions to mitigate potential risks. The operator can more effectively manage resources and improve efficiency of actions. Ability to reflect the current risk level is key advantage of our approach to risk assessment of risk management of trunk oil pipelines.
Development of Risk Optimisation Model for Oil and Gas Transportation Pipeline Routes
IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 2019
Identifying safe routes for the pipelines that transport Oil and Gas (O&G) products is a challenging topic in the current environment; particularly in the insure countries. Because the relevant data about the probability and severity levels of the Risk Factors (RFs) that affect the safety of these pipelines are rare. Which makes the existing risk assessment tools ineffective to analyse these RFs and identify safe route for these pipelines. Hence, this paper aims to develop a risk assessment tool that can identify safe routes for the new O&G pipelines in Iraq in a systematic way using the following steps. Firstly, an industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to gather the data about the probability and severity levels of the RFs in such projects in Iraq. Secondly, the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) in MATLAB was used to analyse and rank the RFs. Because the FIS can reduce the uncertainty in risk analysis, which results from the lack of data and the biasness of stakeholder’s judg...
A Water Supply Pipeline Risk Analysis Methodology Based on DIY and Hierarchical Fuzzy Inference
Symmetry
The standard manufacturing organizations follow certain rules. The highest ubiquitous organizing principles in infrastructure design are modular idea and symmetry, both of which are of the utmost importance. Symmetry is a substantial principle in the manufacturing industry. Symmetrical procedures act as the structural apparatus for manufacturing design. The rapid growth of population needs outstrip infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railway lines, commercial, residential buildings, etc. Numerous underground facilities are also installed to fulfill different requirements of the people. In these facilities one of the most important facility is water supply pipelines. Therefore, it is essential to regularly analyze the water supply pipelines’ risk index in order to escape from economic and human losses. In this paper, we proposed a simplified hierarchical fuzzy logic (SHFL) model to reduce the set of rules. To this end, we have considered four essential factors of water supply pipe...
Decision Analysis Framework for Risk Management of Crude Oil Pipeline System
Advances in Decision Sciences, 2011
A model is constructed for risk management of crude pipeline subject to rupture on the basis of a methodology that incorporates structured expert judgment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk model calculates frequency of failure and their probable consequences for different segments of crude pipeline, considering various failure mechanisms. Specifically, structured expert judgment is used to provide frequency of failure assessments for identified failure mechanisms of the pipeline. In addition, AHP approach is utilized to obtain relative failure likelihood for attributes of failure mechanisms with very low probability of occurrence. Finally, the expected cost of failure for a given pipeline segment is estimated by combining its frequency of failure and the consequences of failure, estimated in terms of historical costs of failure from the pipeline operator’s database. A real-world case study of a crude pipeline is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed method...
A CASE STUDY ON FUZZY LOGIC-BASED RISK ASSESSMENT IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
Risk assessment is a process of categorizing and measurement of risk related outcomes from a specific incident and in a particular scenario. While risk itself is considered as the combination of likelihood and severity of the consequences of hazards. Typically, the qualitative approach of risk based inspection (RBI) is applied in oil and gas industries to measure the risk levels of hazards. But with this qualitative approach sometime the risk ranking ties among the different factors can lead to problem in selecting the most critical factor. To address the problem, this study aims to develop a fuzzy logic-base risk assessment model using a quantitative approach of RBI that will assist to mitigate the risk ties in risk ranking process of hazard. In this proposed model, fuzzy membership functions and ranges have been assigned for likelihood, severity of consequences and for total risk levels. A case study on ammonia hazard is presented to demonstrate the vitality of the proposed fuzzy risk assessment model with samples of four categories (people, environment, asset and reputation) from an oil and gas industry. The outcomes of this study indicate that the developed model has a strong potential application in oil and gas industry in assessing the severity levels of risk, and resolving risk ranking ties.
Today, the use of risk assessment methods in various industries is expanding, as there are currently more than 70 different types of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods in the world. These methods are usually used to identify, control and mitigate the effects of hazards. Organizations should be able to select one or a combination of several types of risk assessment methods that are explored and studied in this article. In some cases, and for the direction of some sensitive processes, especially in the chemical industry, the production of explosive and combustion products such as the gas transmission company should be analyzed before determining the type of method of all methods and the best approach with regard to financial resources, requires Qualitative or quantitative or qualitative and quantitative information, time limits, trained personnel limitations, the type of application of the risk identification method, the advantages and disadvantages of each of these systems. Generally acceptable risk levels are different for each organization or individual, depending on financial and economic resources, technological constraints, experienced human resources, discretion and management, and underlying risks such as hidden risks. Organizations usually require a system that, in addition to Assessing their activities and processes can help them determine the risk situation, determine risk tolerance criteria, and
2014
Background: Project risk management is one of the main topics in project management which provides the possibility of rating risks based on their criticality and giving appropriate and on time response. Objective: This is much important in big industrial projects including oil projects. For the present study, first experts’ panel and interview were used, based on which 116 main risks in big repair project of 18-inch oil transfer pipeline from Cheshmeh Khosh to Ahwaz were identified and five main risk evaluation indices, i.e. time, quality, safety, cost and environmental effects were ranked based on fuzzy TOPSIS method and fuzzy network analysis process. Results: Then, using questionnaire, the probability of occurrence and the effectiveness of each identified risk based on five indices were investigated and at the end, the final ranking of each risk was identified. Conclusion: The results of study showed that ranking based on TOPSIS, fuzzy network analysis process had almost the same...