Large decadal scale changes of polar ozone suggest solar influence (original) (raw)
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Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 1987
The response of the stratosphere and lower mesosphere to the quasi-eleven-year solar activity cycle (indicated by sunspot variations) was studied using temperature data obtained from rockets which are mostly based on a datasonde system throughout the decade 1969-1978. It is suggested that the highest correlation between the long-term stratospheric-lower mesospheric temperature fluctuations and the Zfirich sunspot number is obtained with a time lag of one year (sun leading). A comprehensive insight into the actual process accounting for the observed correlation would be gained from improved observational data, including observations of solar ultraviolet behavior. Zusammenfassung Best~itigung des lljfhrigen Sonnenfleckenzyklus in den stratosph~irischen und niedermesosph §rischen Ozonkonzentrationen und Temperaturen Die Reaktion dee Stratosph/ire und dee niederen Mesosph/ire auf den 1 lj~hrigen-Sonnenzyklus (ausgedriickt durch Sonnenflecken-Variationen) wurde anhand yon Temperaturdaten untersucht, die mit Raketensonden w/ihrend des Jahrzehnts 1969-1978 ermittelt worden waren. Die Ergcbnisse weisen darauf bin, dab die maximale Korrelation zwischen langffistigen stratosph~irischen bzw. niedermesosph/irischen Temperaturfluktuationen und dee Anzahl dee Sonnenflecken in Zfirich mit einer Zeitverz6gerung von einem Jahr zu erhalten ist. Ein besseres Verstfindnis des tatsgchlichen Vorganges, dem die betrachtete Korrelation zugeschrieben wird, kann durch verbesserte Beobachtungsdaten unter Berficksichtigung der Sonnenaktivitiit im Ultravioletten gewonnen werden.
The Middle Atmospheric Ozone Response to the 11-Year Solar Cycle
Space Science Reviews, 2007
Because of its chemical and radiative properties, atmospheric ozone constitutes a key element of the Earth's climate system. Absorption of sunlight by ozone in the ultraviolet wavelength range is responsible for stratospheric heating, and determines the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere. Changes in middle atmospheric ozone concentrations result in an altered radiative input to the troposphere and to the Earth's surface, with implications on the energy balance and the chemical composition of the lower atmosphere. Although a wide range of ground-and satellite-based measurements of its integrated content and of its vertical distribution have been performed since several decades, a number of uncertainties still remain as to the response of middle atmospheric ozone to changes in solar irradiance over decadal time scales. This paper presents an overview of achieved findings, including a discussion of commonly applied data analysis methods and of their implication for the obtained results. We suggest that because it does not imply least-squares fitting of prescribed periodic or proxy data functions into the considered times series, time-domain analysis provides a more reliable method than multiple regression analysis for extracting decadal-scale signals from observational ozone datasets. Applied to decadal ground-based observations, time-domain analysis indicates an average middle atmospheric ozone increase of the order of 2% from solar minimum to solar maximum, which is in reasonable agreement with model results.
Long –term variations in the stratospheric winter time ozone variability – 22 year cycle
Compt. rend. Acad. bulg. Sci., v.64(6), 867-874, 2011
Statistical analysis of the stratospheric ozone for the last 5 decades reveals that besides from the solar UV radiation it is significantly influenced by the energetic particles of solar and galactic origin. The effect of the galactic energetic particles, also known as cosmic rays (CRs), is modulated by the 22 year heliomagnetic cycle. It was found out that in 1970-ies and 1990-ies the CRs influence manifested itself as a reduction of the winter time stratospheric O3 on the prime meridian, while in the 1960-ies, 1980-ies and the first decade of the 21st century – an enhancement of the ozone mixing ratio in the lower-middle stratosphere has been detected. We investigate also the effect of solar flare activity on the column ozone and reveal that years with strongest ozone deficit closely follow the periods of intense solar proton fluxes. When a coincidence with a strong volcanoes eruption is observed a severe O3 depletion could be observed as those in 1990-ies.
Long-term response of stratospheric ozone and temperature to solar variability
Annales Geophysicae, 2015
The long-term variability in stratospheric ozone mass mixing ratio (O 3) and temperature (T) from 1979 to 2013 is investigated using the latest reanalysis product delivered by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), i.e., ERA-Interim. Moreover, using the Mg II index time series for the same time period, the response of the stratosphere to the 11-year Schwabe solar cycle is investigated. Results reveal the following features: (i) upward (downward) trends characterize zonally averaged O 3 anomalies in the upper (middle to lower stratosphere) stratosphere, while prevailing downward trends affect the T field. Mg II index data exhibit a weaker 24th solar cycle (though not complete) when compared with the previous two; (ii) correlations between O 3 and Mg II, T and Mg II, and O 3 and T are consistent with photochemical reactions occurring in the stratosphere and large-scale transport; and (iii) wavelet cross-spectra between O 3 and Mg II index show common power for the 11-year period, particularly in tropical regions around 30-50 hPa, and different relative phase in the upper and lower stratosphere. A comprehensive insight into the actual processes accounting for the observed correlation between ozone and solar UV variability would be gained from an improved bias correction of ozone measurements provided by different satellite instruments, and from the observations of the time behavior of the solar spectral irradiance.
Mechanisms and modelling of a 22 year cycle in the stratospheric winter time ozone variability
Compt. rend. Acad. bulg. Sci., v.64(7), 1007-1115, 2011
In this paper we have shown that: i.) the variable intensity of galactic cosmic rays (CR) and ii.) the dependence of the lower stratospheric ozone concentration on its own profile aloft, could successfully explain the quasi bi-decadal variability found in the winter time ozone layer. Thus decades with an enhanced CR intensity (as 1970-ies and 1990-ies) are characterised by a stronger O3 depletion, due to an activation of the ozone destructive cycles by precipitating energetic particles. Oppositely, decades with reduced total intensity of CR and consequently increased concentration of electrons in the CR compositional structure (i.e. 1960-ies, 1980-ies and 2000-ies) have lower stratospheric ozone slightly increased. This is due to the activation of another process known as “ozone self-healing” (i.e. O3 creation at lower levels as a result of ozone destruction aloft).
Lower and middle atmosphere and ozone layer responses to solar variation
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, 2009
Global warming in the troposphere and the decrease of stratospheric ozone concentration has become a major concern to the scientific community. The increase in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentration is believed to be the main cause of this global change in the lower atmosphere and in stratospheric ozone, which is corresponded by a cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere. However, there are natural sources, such as the sun and volcanic eruptions, with the same ability to produce global changes in the atmosphere. The present work will focus on solar variation and its signature in lower and middle atmosphere parameters. The Sun can influence the Earth and its climate through electromagnetic radiation variations and also through changes in the solar wind which causes geomagnetic storms. The effects of both mechanisms over the lower and middle atmosphere and ozone layer will be discussed through an overview of selected papers, which by no means cover this subject that is extremel...
Decadal solar effects on temperature and ozone in the tropical stratosphere
Annales Geophysicae, 2006
To investigate the effects of decadal solar variability on ozone and temperature in the tropical stratosphere, along with interconnections to other features of the middle atmosphere, simultaneous data obtained from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) aboard the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) aboard the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) during the period 1992-2004 have been analyzed using a multifunctional regression model. In general, responses of solar signal on temperature and ozone profiles show good agreement for HALOE and SAGE II measurements. The inferred annual-mean solar effect on temperature is found to be positive in the lower stratosphere (max 1.2±0.5 K / 100 sfu) and near stratopause, while negative in the middle stratosphere. The inferred solar effect on ozone is found to be significant in most of the stratosphere (2±1.1-4±1.6% / 100 sfu). These observed results are in reasonable agreement with model simulations. Solar signals in ozone and temperature are in phase in the lower stratosphere and they are out of phase in the upper stratosphere. These inferred solar effects on ozone and temperature are found to vary dramatically during some months, at least in some altitude regions. Solar effects on temperature are found to be negative from August to March between 9 mb-3 mb pressure levels while solar effects on ozone are maximum during January-March near 10 mb in the Northern Hemisphere and 5 mb-7 mb in the Southern Hemisphere.
Aerospace Research in Bulgaria, 2019
This study examines the latitudinal-altitudinal variations of the midday O3and temperature response to the forcing of the enhanced flux of energetic particles, during January 2005 Solar Proton Event (SPE). We show that short-term response of the stratospheric O3 depends strongly on the latitude and the energy of precipitating particles. At polar latitudes, where the relativistic electrons and “soft” protons are able to penetrate deeper into the atmosphere, we found a reduction of the peak ozone density in periods of enhanced particles’ fluxes. Such a response is widely explained by the activation of HOx and NOx ozone destructive cycles. At mid-latitudes, however, the stratospheric part of the O3profile remains insensitive to these lower energy particles, because they affect only the thermospheric and mesospheric O3. On the other hand, the “hard” protons, emitted during the third solar flare on 20 January, are able to propagate much deeper, affecting even the stratospheric ozone and ...
Atmosphere
The 11-year solar activity cycle in the vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic station Faraday/Vernadsky in the Antarctic Peninsula region (65.25° S, 64.27° W) was analyzed using the Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) radiometer data Version 8.6 Merged Ozone Data Sets (MOD) over the 40-year period 1979–2018. The SBUV MOD ozone profiles are presented as partial column ozone in layers with approximately 3-km altitude increments from the surface to the lower mesosphere (1000–0.1 hPa, or 0–64 km). Periodicities in the ozone time series of the layer data were studied using wavelet transforms. A statistically significant signal with a quasi-11-year period consistent with solar activity forcing was found in the lower–middle stratosphere at 22–31 km in ozone over Faraday/Vernadsky, although signals with similar periods were not significant in the total column measurements made by the Dobson spectrophotometer at the site. For comparison with other latitudinal zones, the relative c...
Annales Geophysicae, 2011
Using a unique set of satellite based observations of the vertical distribution of ozone during the recent annular solar eclipse of 15 January 2010, we demonstrate for the first time, a complete picture of the response of stratospheric ozone to abrupt changes in solar forcing. The stratospheric ozone decreased after the maximum obscuration of the Sun and then gradually increased with time. A dramatic increase in stratospheric ozone of up to 4 ppmv is observed 3 h after the maximum obscuration of the Sun. The present study also reports for the first time the mesosphere-lower thermospheric ozone response to solar eclipse. Thus it is envisaged that the present results will have important implications in understanding the ozone response to abrupt changes in solar forcing and timescales involved in such response.