Land use and land cover change modeling (original) (raw)

Abstract

An ensemble of multi-scale (regional to local) simulations of potential land use and land cover change (LULCC) for the EUMed region was conducted using future projections of climate and socioeconomy. The aim was providing robust estimates of expected changes of land cover in the short- to long-term future. The combination of land cover and climate changes leads to an increase of fire hazard and eventual fire risk. Simulations allow anticipating future change in land cover patterns at regional level as well as discontinuous urban areas and rural-urban interface (RUI) at local scale. Change in land cover, urban sprawl and modifications in spatial structures must be monitored and foreseen to facilitate fire risk prevention and mitigation.

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