Defense R&D and information technology in a long-term perspective la rd militaire et les technologies de l'information en longue période Abstract : Defense R&D is usually considered as an economic burden, implying an eviction effect on civilian R&D and perverting the national systems of innovatio... (original) (raw)
Related papers
2009
Technological superiority is a key element to achieve defense effectiveness, and R&D spending is crucial to access leading-edge technologies. Nevertheless, the current defense R&D model seems to reach its limits, leading to an out-of-control burden: In spite of spending almost USD70 billion yearly, defense R&D in NATO countries does not produce the expected results. This low effectiveness leads to criticism about today's model of defense R&D, especially the channeling of credits by large incumbents through the Lead System Integrator model. Spurring disruptive technologies and path-breaking innovation requires an alternative approach. It is then interesting to analyze the possible use of venture-capital mechanisms to complement the mainstream approach to defense R&D. Even though the article does not develop a full analysis of the relationship between defense R&D and the principles of venture capital, it identifies criteria for such an alternative approach.
The Impact of Military R&D on the Innovative Development of the Civilian Sector
Public Administration Issues
Th e main route of economic development on an innovative basis implies the effi cient implementation of scientifi c research and development activities (R&D) in a country. However, if economists generally agree that R&D expenses contribute to the technological development of the economy and improve the sectorial structure of industry in favor of highly technological, value adding industries, then the contradictions between scientifi c viewpoints in debates on the impact of military R&D expenses are of a more acute character. Even in cases where empirical researches reveal the positive interdependence between military R&D expenses and the most important indicators of economic development, the issues regarding their benefi t to broad layers of society always remain disputable. Th e article summarizes analyses of the impact of military R&D on the economy conducted at diff erent times, and coordinates the conclusions drawn. Th e main directions of impact of military R&D on the economy are presented: security eff ect, aggregate demand growth eff ect, aggregate supply growth eff ect, positive spillover eff ect, negative spillover eff ect, and crowding-out eff ect. In addition, the dynamics of military R&D in Armenia have been studied and certain judgments evaluating their peculiarities are presented.
Crafting Defense R&D Policy in the Anti-Terrorist Era
Innovation Policy and the Economy, 2004
This paper seeks to analyze the nature of the terrorist threat following September 11, 2001, and to explore the implications for defense R&D policy. First, it reviews the defining trends of defense R&D since the Cold War and brings in pertinent empirical evidence. During the 1990s, the United States accumulated a defense R&D stock ten times larger than any other country and almost thirty times larger than Russia. Big weapons systems, key during the Cold War but of dubious significance since then, still figure prominently, commanding 30 percent of current defense R&D spending, vis-à-vis just about 13 percent for intelligence and anti-terrorism. The second part of the paper examines the nature of the terrorist threat, focusing on the role of uncertainty, the lack of deterrence, and the extent to which security against terrorism is (still) a public good. Drawing from a formal model of terrorism that I developed elsewhere (Trajtenberg 2003), I explore these and related issues in further detail. Two strategies for confronting terrorism are considered: fighting terrorism at its source and protecting individual targets (the latter entails a negative externality). Contrary to the traditidnal case of national defense, security against terrorism becomes a mixed private/public good. A key result of the model is that the government should spend enough on fighting terrorism at its source to nullify the incentives of private targets to invest in their own security. Intelligence emerges as the key aspect of the war against terrorism, and accordingly R&D aimed at providing advanced technological means for intelligence is viewed as the cornerstone of defense R&D. This entails developing computerized sensory interfaces and increasing the ability to analyze vast amounts of data. Both have direct civilian applications, and therefore the required R&D is mostly "dual use." Indeed, there is already a private market for these systems, with a large number of players. R&D programs designed to preserve this diversity and to encourage further competition may prove beneficial both for the required R&D and for the economy at large.
IMPACT OF TECHNOLIGIACAL INNOVATION, RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE DEFENSE ECONOMY - IRAN COUNTRY
REVIEW OF INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS, 2021
ABSTRACT The Purpose. This research is to investigate the relationship between the variables of technological innovation, research and development costs, economic growth, sales and export of weapons and military costs in Iran for the years 2000 to 2017. Design/Methodology/Approach. In this study, we examine using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to explore the estimating the impacts of technological innovation, research and development costs, economic growth, sales and export on military costs. Findings/Implications. The results of this study showed that the impact of technological innovation and research and development costs on military costs is negative in short-term and long-term. Although the effect that these two variables have on military spending in the short-term is very close, in long-term the effect that research and development costs have on military spending is far greater and more significant. Also, the impact of economic growth on Iran’s defense economy is much less than the variables of technological innovation and research and development costs. So that this effect will be less in long-term. But, the amount of arms sales and exports in the short-term has a positive effect on defense spending, but in long-term it becomes negative and increase in arms sales and exports can help Iran’s defense economy. Originality. The countries defense economy can always have positive effects on military and civilian research and development, scientific innovation and technological progress, in this condition that the country’s macroeconomics can spend military spending on research and development and support innovation and inventions. Eventually adopt arrangements that use the innovations of the defense industry in the civilian sector, which will lead to economic growth. This is the experience of many developed countries that have been able to use the technological advances and innovations of the military sector in the civilian sectors as well, and to cause the economic progress and development of their country
Technology push-over: defense downturns and civilian technology policy
Research Policy, 2001
Since the 1960s civilian technology demonstration programs in the US Departments of Transportation and Commerce have manifested a pattern in their initiation, content, and outcomes. Programs are episodic, with long periods of relative inactivity occasionally interrupted by brief periods of budgetary largesse. Program content often emphasizes information and automation technologies and system integration. Outcomes are often disappointing, with few technologies or systems actually implemented. This broad pattern in civilian technology policy can be explained in part by the dynamics of the defense sector. Defense technology suppliers occasionally suffer a procurement downturn, at which times they apply their political influence in support of offsetting civilian projects. This leads to occasional periods of support for civilian technology development. This cross-sectoral technological imperative is here conceptualized as "technology push-over". Evidence of this relationship between defense and civilian technology programs can be found in the repeated US programs in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and in aggregate R&D data from the defense, commerce, and transportation sectors.
Defense R, technology, and economic performance: a longitudinal analysis of the US experience
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 1993
This paper examines the issue of the impact of defense expenditure from a different perspective, i.e., in terms of the direct relationships between defense R & D and economic performance as well as the indirect relationships via the development of (1) technical and scientific skills and (2) new technology. The model was estimated for the period 1955-1988 on a time-series set measured as elasticities. The effect of defense R & D is observed particularly through technological change as measured by the number of patents granted to U.S. organizations and individuals. There is no statistically significant evidence of resource diversion or "crowding effect" on the civilian economy due to defense R & D. Similarly, there does not seem to be any statistically visible evidence of direct effect from defense R & D to the economy. Interestingly, the non-R & D aspect of defense spending appears to have no statistically significant effect on the major components of civilian economic performance, technical-skills formation or technological change. From a policy point of view, this suggests that technical spillovers may be limited to a specific kind of defense spending and not to defense spending in general. Another interesting implication is the rivalry between R & D and non-R & D defense spending in favor of the latter.
Defense R&D Policy in the Anti-terrorist Era
2003
This paper seeks to analyze the nature of the terrorist threat following 9/11, and to explore the implications for defense R&D policy. First it reviews the defining trends of defense R&D since the cold war, and brings in pertinent empirical evidence: The US accumulated during the 1990s a defense R&D stock 10 times larger than any other country, and almost 30 times larger than Russia. Big weapon systems, key during the cold war but of dubious significance since then still figure prominently, commanding 30% of current defense R&D spending, vis a vis just about 13% for intelligence and antiterrorism. The second part of the paper examines the nature of the terrorist threat, focusing on the role of uncertainty, the lack of deterrence, and the extent to which security against terrorism is (still) a public good. I develop for that purpose a simple model of terrorism, cast in a nested discrete choice framework. Two strategies are considered: fighting terrorism at its source, and protecting individual targets, which entails a negative externality. Contrary to the traditional case of national defense, security against terrorism becomes a mixed private/public good. A key result of the model is that the government should spend enough on fighting terrorism at its source, so as to nullify the incentives of private targets to invest in their own security. Intelligence emerges as the key aspect of the war against terrorism and, accordingly, R&D aimed at providing advanced technological means for intelligence is viewed as the cornerstone of defense R&D. This entails developing computerized sensory interfaces, and increasing the ability to analyze vast amounts of data. Both have direct civilian applications, and therefore the required R&D is mostly "dual use". Indeed, there is already a private market for these systems, with a large number of players. R&D programs designed to preserve this diversity and to encourage further competition may prove beneficial both for the required R&D, and for the economy at large.