Do Political Incentives Matter for Tax Policies? Ideology, Opportunism and the Tax Structure (original) (raw)

A Political Economy of Income Tax Policies

Political Science Research and Methods, 2015

Despite the close ties between tax-generated revenue and government policies, little is known about how political institutions shape the structure of tax choices across income levels. We propose and test a model based on the selectorate perspective, which predicts that leader choices regarding taxing and spending are driven by their desire to maximize their survival prospects against domestic challengers. The empirical tests investigate the conditions under which income taxes are non-existent, flat, more regressive or more progressive, and the degree of heterogeneity in tax systems as a function of governance institutions. The empirical results strongly and robustly support the theoretical predictions while also shedding light on how tax structures implemented in large coalition systems reduce income inequality.

Imperfect Electoral Constraints and Taxation for an Economy with Ideological Parties and Ideological Voters,

2014

In this paper we analyze the design of tax structure through a model of electoral competition in which political parties have preferences over fiscal outcomes and the individuals’ vote is influenced by policy issues and partisan attitudes. We analyze the tradeoff between the representation of the narrow interests of the core supporters of the party versus the representation of the pluralist preferences of the electorate in tax policy. This tradeoff depends on the electoral constraints faced by parties. To predict tax policies, we introduce a model that can distinguish different sets of electoral constraints. Our model predicts that under soft electoral constraints, taxes on income elastic goods increase under Democrat administrations while they fall under Republican governments. If electoral constraints are binding, parties design tax policy to maximize a politically aggregated welfare function (PAWF). We identify conditions in which the preferences of partisan voters will have a high weight in the PAWF. In this case, we identify conditions in which redistribution is the main guiding principle in determining tax policy in Democrat administrations while efficiency is the main principle in tax design in Republican administrations.

Electoral Motives, Partisan Motives and Dynamic Optimality With Many Taxes: An International Investigation

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2009

In this paper, we argue that tax-smoothing results based on total tax revenues may be of limited importance if in fact governments are concerned with the intertemporal distortionary effects of many kinds of taxes, when electoral and partisan motives also have to be taken into account. We develop an inter-temporal model that predicts that tax revenue mix should follow random walks. The model is tested with international data using both time series and panel-based unit root tests. We find that during the examined period, 1973-2003, governments are not optimizing tax components in the sense of Barro.

Electoral competition, tax design and the tradeoff between redistribution and efficiency

analisiseconomico.com.mx

This paper analyzes a political economy model of taxation in which political parties design the provision of a public good and the structure of a commodity tax system to maximize votes in the election. In this economy the individuals' vote choice is determined by parties' policies and voters' partisan preferences. In our model, voters' partisan preferences are a form of political heterogeneity that helps to explain the votes distribution in the election and influences parties' fiscal policy design. It also predicts that left parties have a purely electoral incentive to propose a commodity tax system in which income redistribution plays a more prominent role than efficiency in guiding the design of the tax structure and public spending is high. In contrast, right parties have an electoral incentive to weigh less heavily redistribution in tax design and spending is lower compared with the provision of the public good under administrations ruled by left parties. These predictions explain stylized facts suggesting that left (right) parties tend to implement more (less) progressive tax systems. Our paper also contributes to the literature of taxation by providing a new set of empirically verifiable propositions on the role of electoral competition on the government's design of a tax structure.

On the political economics of tax reforms: survey and empirical assessment

International Tax and Public Finance, 2012

Political constraints and incentives are the true driver of tax reforms. This paper reviews the political economics literature on personal income tax systems and reforms to see how political mechanisms help explain tax reforms. We take some of the implications of these theories to the data using LABREF, a database that identifies labor tax reforms in the European Union for the period 2000-2007, and control for economic and labor market factors. We find that political variables carry more weight than economic variables, and we show empirical regularities that support political economy theories. We also find that governments tended to reform more in better economic times, engaging in pro-cyclical behavior.

Party size and policy outcomes: An empirical analysis of taxation in democracies

Studies in Comparative International Development, 2001

Taxation varies widely among democracies. Yet scholars disagree whether differences in political institutions help produce the variation. This article identifies top-down and bottom-up mechanisms by which political institutions are thought to influence taxation. It then combines political and economic data on more than 50 democracies to evaluate the impact of political institutions on government revenues. Cross-sectional and pooled time series analyses that include controls for economic conditions and partisan ideologies of governments confirm an indirect impact of these institutions: there is a curvilinear relationship between the size of political parties in a democracy and the tax revenues collected. Yet the effect of party size on policy outcomes is limited to a subset of democracies. The article opens new paths for research on the roles of electoral, constitutional, legislative, and party institutions in democratic policy making around the world.

Electoral Cycles of Tax Performance in Advanced Democracies

CESifo Economic Studies, 2019

It is widely accepted that incumbents in democratic societies may use various economic policies to increase their chances of re-election. But incumbents in the most advanced democracies may be restrained in overtly manipulating economic policy instruments before elections, because more experienced voters could penalize them for such opportunistic behavior. Incumbents may embrace indirect and more ‘camouflaged’ means such as opportunistically relaxing the stance of tax revenue performance before elections, either by laxer collection efforts, additional tax exemptions or preferential treatments, or a combination of these. In this article, we present evidence of election-related cycles in the tax revenue performance of 25 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development advanced democracies. We empirically analyze the collection effectiveness of Value Added Tax (VAT) around elections. The findings reveal significant deterioration of VAT revenue performance before elections.

The politics of tax structure

2006

Governments that wish to redistribute through budgetary policy do so mostly on the spending side, not on the taxation side of the budget. The taxation side is nevertheless important, partly because less efficient tax structures seem to be associated with lower taxation and spending levels. Hence political conflicts over spending levels may partly be fought as conflicts over tax structure. The paper provides a coherent perspective on the politics of tax structure. Specific topics include the (ir-)relevance of tax mixes, policy change in income taxation, the importance of tax competition, and the role of political institutions. -- Wenn der staatliche Haushalt zur Umverteilung genutzt wird, so geschieht dies vor allem auf der Ausgabenseite und nicht auf der Einnahmenseite. Die Einnahmeseite ist trotzdem bedeutsam, weil es offenbar einen Zusammenhang gibt zwischen der Effizienz der Steuerstruktur und dem Steuerniveau. Daraus folgt, dass politische Auseinandersetzungen über Ausgabennivea...

Voting with tax evasion: Ideological motives in tax compliance behavior

2019

Based on a theoretical model in which voters’ tax compliance behavior is driven by fairness concerns, we empirically analyze the channels through which ideological stances of individuals and governments impact on tax compliance behavior. Our data is from the WVS and the EVS and comprises nearly 48,000 observations from 23 OECD countries over the period 1995-2012. Our results indicate that the consequences of a change in government ideology caused by a shift from a moderate right-wing to a moderate left-wing coalition reduces the probability to exhibit the highest tax compliance level of voters in a country with average public sector size by 1.31%. This effect is twice as large in a country whose public sector size lies 5 percent above the average. These results highlight the importance of ideological stances in tax compliance and indicate that policy makers should focus their attention on the increasing ideological polarization recently observed in developed countries as a hurdle fo...