Do we need numbers? The demographic fingerprint on crisis evidence. (original) (raw)
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A new stage of demographic change: A warning for economists
Russian Journal of Economics , 2018
The current stage of demographic changes in all countries that have experienced a demo graphic transition is characterized by two main features: (1) cessation of population growth; (2) a progressive increase in the total dependency ratio, which until recently, de spite the longrun population ageing, was declining. Both of these features are unfavorable from the economic point of view. In Russia, the situation is aggravated by the peculiari ties of the population pyramid, heavily deformed by the social and military upheavals of the 20 th century. The article shows that, for a long time, the demographic trends in Russia favored its economic development, but now the country is entering a long period of unfavor able demographic changes. The cessation of growth of the Russian population, the reduc tion in the workingage population and its ageing and the increase in the dependency ratio will have a deterrent effect on economic development and, at the same time, make it more difficult to solve social problems. In particular, these factors will create greater problems for the pension system for people older than working age. The issue of using the migration resource to mitigate the negative consequences of demographic changes is discussed.
Europe's Two Demographic Crises: The Visible and the Unrecognized
Population and Development Review, 2016
MOST REASONABLE definitions of the term, the European Union is experiencing a demographic crisis rooted in a shortage of births relative to deaths. In the great majority of the EU's 28 member countries, fertility is far below the level that would be necessary for the reproduction of the population over time. If it were maintained in the coming decades at such a low level, population size in the affected countries would be cut by more than half in the short span of two generations-roughly 60 years. This drastically reduced population would have an age distribution inconsistent with economic sustainability. In countries experiencing this syndrome an inevitable future would eventually entail permitting massive immigration from lands not suffering from population deficit. But this prospect is not perceived, either by governments or by the general public, as a crisis. And understandably so: time horizons are short. Politicians are immersed in the here and now, their attention span extending at best to the next election. Public opinion has a similar limitation. In that short-term outlook the processes of population shrinkage and population aging are virtually imperceptible. From year to year population size and age distribution seem to be much the same. The road leading to what may in effect amount to collective national and civilizational suicide is taken unhurriedly, step by step. The policy measures now applied to remedy this unrecognized crisis by trying to raise fertility have so far proven ineffective, and their application in heavier doses promises no better results. While in longer-term perspective a spontaneous rise of fertility rates to a level at or at least close to what is required for population replacement cannot be excluded as a possibility, neither can fertility's decline to even lower levels. Thus, there is an urgent need to rethink social policies that might help to generate the former
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In the past 50 years, the world accelerated its transition out of long-term demographic stability. As infant and child mortality rates fell, populations began to soar. In most countries, this growth led to falling fertility rates. Although fertility has fallen, the population continues to increase because of population momentum; it will eventually level off. In the meantime, demographic change has created a 'bulge' generation, which today appears in many countries as a large working-age population. This cohort will eventually become a large elderly population, in both developed and developing countries. Population growth has been the subject of great debate among economists and demographers. Until recently, most have agreed on a middle ground, in which population growth per se has no effect on economic growth. New evidence suggests that changes in the age structure of populations -in particular, a rising ratio of working-age to non-working-age individualsleads to the possibility of more rapid economic growth, via both accounting and behavioural effects. The experiences of east Asia, Ireland and sub-Saharan Africa all serve as evidence of the effect of demographic change on economic growth (or lack thereof). Both internal migration (from rural to urban areas) and international migration complicate this picture. The overall implications of population growth for policy lie in the imperative for investments in health and education, and for sound policies related to labour, trade and retirement. Understanding future trends is essential for the development of good policy. Demographic projections can be quite reliable, but huge uncertainties -in the realms of health, changes in human life span, scientific advances, migration, global warming and wars -make overall predictions extremely uncertain.
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The phrase 'provincializing Europe' has become a mantra in postcolonial studies since Chakrabarty's Provincializing Europe: Postcolonial Thought and Historical Difference (2000). But how is it possible to provincialize Europe when we argue, analyze, think, and oftentimes judge in a Western paradigm of norms and values? Sivaramakrishnan's As the World Ages is a brilliant demonstration of how such a history can be written.
Demographic response to economic shock
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The clear division of the world in the 1950s and 1960s into rich countries with low fertility and mortality and poor countries with higher fertility and mortality was used to support strongly held views that economic development was necessary for demographic change and that demographic change was necessary for economic development. Cross-sectional relationships between mortality or fertility and economic indicators have been used to argue both for and against national or international health or family planning interventions. Policymakers want increasingly to know to what extent short-run economic fluctuations result in short-run demographic fluctuations. The author addresses this question with special attention to the possible effects on mortality of the Third World economic crises of the 1980s. He examines the historical record, working backward from the recent past to periods before the demographic transition. The historical record, he concludes, does not support the existence of ...
Demographics: The Vulnerable Heel of the European Achilles
European View, 2014
Europe is currently under pressure from both the economy and demography. Six years after the onset of the global financial crisis, there are still no signs of a strong recovery. Moreover, demographic shifts have affected the size and structure of the European population, which is the fastest ageing in the world. These trends are inexorable and will be very hard to break unless major changes take place in the mentality of both policymakers and society at large. This article explains how the mixture of these adverse economic and demographic prospects puts the whole continent at high risk and will undermine its economic and political influence in the years to come.
Lexicon, 2006
The specter of “population explosion” is often invoked today and even to be convinced that it is possible to find in population growth the cause of poverty in many countries. In fact, abusive appeals to demography are often made to confer a kind of scientific justification on programs of action which have heavily ideological connotations. It is therefore necessary to keep in mind the findings of the science of population in order to understand the notably different situations, and to grasp the mechanisms which explain why and in what way demographic changes vary in time and space. These same findings call for an in-depth analysis of development policies.