A systems perspective on responses to climate change (original) (raw)
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Environ. Sci. Policy 8, 537-540, 2005
We introduce the set of papers on the theme on mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change with some general observations on climate change and climatepolicies. Our focus is the question of what mix of policies – including policies that have been neglected hitherto – needs to be pursued in light of the scientific evidence about climate change and the successes or failures of dominant climate policies to date.We follow a standard division in our discussion and dichotomize relevant research programs and policy approaches as either reducing climatically significant human activities (mitigation) or as enhancing the capacity of societies to cope with changing climatic conditions (adaptation).
Evaluating Risk and Possible Adaptations to Climate Change Under a Socio-Ecological System Approach
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Evidence suggests that climate change could drastically reduce Mexico's agricultural productivity with severe socio-ecological consequences. Population growth and the increasing demand of resources will exacerbate these impacts. Focusing on rainfed maize production, we evaluate the socio-ecological risk that municipalities currently face and how climate change could modify it. Municipalities were classified based on their biophysical and socioeconomic traits like temperature, precipitation, population, gross domestic product, marginalization, and agricultural subsidies. The study identifies municipalities that would face higher risk under climate change conditions, and it evaluates whether increases in agricultural subsidies could be effective for reducing the farmers' future risk. Our results show that during the 2010's, 36.8% of the municipalities and 15% of the population were at very high and high risk, respectively. By 2070, under a high-warming scenario these figur...