The magnitude and reliability of equity capital cost estimates: A statistical approach (original) (raw)

On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability

Quantitative Finance, 2004

Gordon and Shapiro (1956) first equated the price of a share with the present value of future dividends and derived the well-known relationship. Since then, there have been many improvements on the theory. For example, Thompson (1985, 1987) combined the "dividend yield plus growth" method with Box-Jenkins time series analysis of past dividend experience to estimate the cost of capital and its "reliability" for individual firms. Thompson and Wong (1991, 1996) proved the existence and uniqueness of the cost of capital and provided formula to estimate both the cost of capital and its reliability. However, their approaches cannot be used if the "reliability" does not exist or if there are multiple solutions for the "reliability". In this paper, we extend their theory by proving the existence and uniqueness of this reliability. In addition, we propose the estimators for the reliability and prove that the estimators converge to a true parameter. The estimation approach is further simplified, hence rendering computation easier. In addition, the properties of the cost of capital and its reliability will be analyzed with illustrations of several commonly used Box-Jenkins models.

Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data

Foundations and Trends® in Accounting, 2007

Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accountingbased valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital.

Cost of Capital Estimation for Major Corporations. Evidence on Best Practice

2011

This paper presents the theoretical background concerning capital budgeting techniques and cost of capital estimation and a literature review on cost of capital estimation practice applied by key European corporations as opposed to Asian and American firms. Previous studies showed that the most commonly used model for estimating the cost of equity is the CAPM with major differences concerning the

Toward an Implied Cost of Capital

Journal of Accounting Research, 2001

In this study, we propose an alternative technique for estimating the cost of equity capital. Specifically, we use a discounted residual income model to generate a market implied cost‐of‐capital. We then examine firm characteristics that are systematically related to this estimate of cost‐of‐capital. We show that a firm's implied cost‐of‐capital is a function of its industry membership, B/M ratio, forecasted long‐term growth rate, and the dispersion in analyst earnings forecasts. Together, these variables explain around 60% of the cross‐sectional variation in future (two‐year‐ahead) implied costs‐of‐capital. The stability of these long‐term relations suggests they can be exploited to estimate future costs‐of‐capital. We discuss the implications of these findings for capital budgeting, investment decisions, and valuation research.

After Modigliani, Miller, and Hamada: A new way to estimate cost of capital

Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 2019

In this article, we discuss the impact of financial debt on shareholder value using a new approach that aims: (a) to explain the effect that leverage from debt has on a stock's systematic risk, or what we shall call here "the systematic cost of leverage," and (b) to account for default risk in the cost of equity, or what we shall call here "the cost of default." Our assessment of systematic risk is based on a stochastic approach that is materially different from the one proposed by Hamada: the risk premium remunerates the investor for the probability of equity (expressed as market value) generating a return below that of the risk-free rate. Furthermore, the approach we use to account for default risk is derived from reduced-form models, but in this case, (a) we use real probabilities of default and not risk-neutral probabilities, and (b) we extend the approach to stocks. K E Y W O R D S adjusted present value, APV, cost of default, cost of equity, cost of leverage, credit risk, credit spread, debt leverage, default premium, default risk, default spread, levered beta, Modigliani and Miller, Pablo Fernandez, reduced-form model, Robert Hamada, Shareholder value, systematic risk, tax shield Π d D .

The implied cost of capital: A new approach

Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2012

We propose a new approach to estimate the implied cost of capital (ICC). Our approach is distinct from prior studies in that we do not rely on analysts' earnings forecasts to compute the ICC. Instead, we use a cross-sectional model to forecast the earnings of individual firms. Our approach has two major advantages. First, it allows us to estimate the ICC for a much larger sample of firms over a much longer time period. Second, it is not affected by the various issues that lead to the well-documented biases in analysts' forecasts. Our crosssectional earnings model delivers earnings forecasts that outperform consensus analyst forecasts. We show that, as a result, our approach to estimate the ICC produces a more reliable proxy for expected returns than other approaches. We present evidence on the implications for the equity premium and a variety of asset pricing anomalies.

CORPORATE CAPITAL COSTS: A PRACTITIONER'S GUIDE

Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 1999

Central to modern finance theory is an understanding of the cost of capital—the minimum required rate of return that is used by companies and investors for both valuation and ongoing performance measurement. This paper provides new insights into the market risk premium for U.S. equities, as well as better methods for measuring and quantifying a company's systematic risk. In so doing, it furnishes evidence that stock market investors now expect a 5% return premium over 30-year government bonds—a decline from the 6–8% premiums suggested by the Ibbotson-Sinquefeld data that extends from 1926 to the present. The author argues that, because of structural changes in the global economy and capital markets, only the most recent 40 or 50 years of data are relevant for estimating current risk premiums. Like the article that precedes it, this article also notes that the 30-year Treasury bond has an increasing component of systematic risk, and the author provides a method of applying the CAPM that removes that risk component from the “risk-free” rate and shifts it to the market risk premium.

Risk, expected return, and the cost of equity capital

New Zealand Economic Papers, 2005

In applying the CAPM to cost of capital calculations, practitioners treat the market risk premium as a free parameter to be estimated from data. However, this process ignores equilibrium in the cash market and therefore the implications of the CAPM for the premium itself. Full equilibrium relates the premium to underlying fundamental parameters, a finding that holds out the promise of identifying time-variation in the cost of capital. Unfortunately, this yields extremely volatile cost of capital estimates, thereby casting doubt on the risk-return tradeoff specified by the CAPM.

Estimating and Comparing the Implied Cost of Equity for Canadian and U.S. Firms

This paper estimates the implied cost of equity for Canadian and U.S. firms using a methodology based on the dividend discount model and utilizing firms' current stock price and analysts' forecasted earnings. We find that firm size and firm stock liquidity are negatively related to cost of equity, while greater firm financial leverage and greater dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts are associated with a higher cost of equity. Moreover, longer-term sovereign bond yields also seem to play a role in a firm's cost of equity. After controlling for several factors, both at a firm-level and at an aggregate level, we find that the cost of equity for Canadian firms is 30-50 bps higher than that of U.S. firms during 1988-2006. Because our estimates may not fully account for factors such as currency risk, inflation uncertainty, degree of market integration, personal taxes, and differences in regulatory environments, we might shed further light on these results by incorporating proxies for these factors and perhaps extending our comparison to more countries.