Credit Rating Agencies: the Importance of Fundamentals in the Assessment of Sovereign Ratings (original) (raw)

Short- and long-run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2011

We study the determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings using rating notations from the three main international rating agencies, for the period 1995-2005. Using linear methods and ordered response models we employ a new specification that allows us to distinguish between short and long-run effects, on a country's rating, of several macroeconomic and fiscal explanatory variables. The results point to a good performance of the estimated models, across agencies and time, as well as a good overall prediction power. Changes in GDP per capita, GDP growth, government debt, government balance have a short-run impact on a country's credit rating, while government effectiveness, external debt, foreign reserves and default history are important long-run determinants. JEL: C23; C25; E44; F30; G15

Sovereign Credit Rating Determinants Under Financial Crises

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

This paper empirically examines the determinants of sovereign credit ratings using panel data on a sample of 86 countries for 1993-2013. It further investigates whether the countries' average credit rating differs by region and for crisis and noncrisis periods, and how the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the Asian crisis, and the 2008 international financial crisis affected the average rating of each region. The estimation results reveal that macroeconomic, external, government, and qualitative factors importantly affect sovereign credit ratings, and that average ratings differ across all geographical regions except for North America and the Eurozone. While the recent crisis reduced the average rating across all regions, the dot-com bubble burst had no effect, the Asian crisis affected only the average rating of Asian countries, and the downgrade resulting from the 2008 crisis was larger in the Eurozone.

Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies

Journal of Economics and Finance, 2003

I conduct an analysis of the possible determinants of sovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading credit rating agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, by using both a linear and a logistic transformation of the rating scales. Of the large number of variables that can be used, the set of explanatory variables selected in this study is significant in explaining the credit ratings. Namely, six variables appear to be the most relevant to determine a country's credit rating: GDP per capita, external debt, level of economic development, default history, real growth rate and inflation rate.

Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets

International Business Research

This study critically investigates the determinants of sovereign credit ratings in emerging markets, during 2001 to 2015. This was conducted in 20 emerging markets, using S&P and Moody ratings. Linear framework econometric approach with the use of pooled Ordinary Least Square regression method was adopted in the study. The explanatory power of the estimated models has a good performance across both rating agencies. The study reveals the importance of five macroeconomic variables in determining the sovereign credit rating of emerging markets. These variables are: gross domestic product per capital, inflation, government debt, reserves, and external debt. Also, world governance indicators, a proxy for qualitative/political variables, were found to be an essential determinant of rating.

Sovereign Credit Rating And Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Analysis On Dynamic Linkages In Malaysia

2009

This paper aims to investigate the long-and short-run relationship of sovereign credit ratings in Malaysia. This study employed quarterly data from 1991 to 2004. A robust and recent time series techniques known as the Unrestricted Error Correction Model -Bound Test was used which is applicable irrespective of whether the regressors are I(0) and I(1). The results show that in the longrun, Debt to GDP, Debt Service to Reserves and US Treasury Bill rate (3-months) appear to have significant impact to Malaysia sovereign credit ratings. The findings of the study show that Malaysia's long-term ability to pay its debt contains information for prediction of the credit rating.

Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets

Emerging Markets Review, 2014

This paper identifies the macroeconomic factors behind the sovereign credit ratings of global emerging markets assigned by Standard and Poor's (S&P). The financial integration and globalization of capital markets have facilitated the capital inflows/outflows among countries. Sovereign credit ratings have served as a signal for countries' economic, financial and political situations. Ratings are very important in the sense that they attract capital inflow and investments. This is especially vital for emerging markets. Although the rating agencies do not explicitly reveal their methodologies, it is possible to guess the effects of several variables on ratings by using various econometric models. Concerning the heavy criticisms on rating agencies' performances, we wish to examine the sovereign credit ratings within a specific country-category. In this essay, we study the effects of macroeconomic factors on the sovereign ratings of emerging markets. Using several approaches, we find that the most relevant factors are Budget Balance/GDP, GDP per capita, Governance Indicators and Reserves/GDP. Moreover, our model predicts up to 93% of all credit rating levels. Interestingly, we obtain that S&P's evaluation of the sovereign credit rating for Turkey performs poorly, especially in the highest rating levels.

An analysis of Granger causality between sovereign credit rating and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 2020

Interest in the relationship between credit rating and economic growth is growing as emerging economies increasingly integrate into international financial markets. Without credit ratings, developing economies would not have been able to successfully issue their sovereign bonds to support economic growth. Therefore, this paper examines a causality relationship between Standard & Poor’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings and economic growth in 19 Sub-Saharan countries over the period from 2003 to 2018. The results of the Granger causality tests show a unidirectional causality from sovereign credit ratings to economic growth, not vice versa. This implies that economic growth is not significant in determining sovereign credit ratings. It can thus be concluded from these findings that sovereign credit ratings are proactive actions by rating agencies that are relevant in determining future economic growth. Thus, investors benefit from utilizing credit ratings to prevent ...

Analysis of Moody's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Criticisms Towards Rating Agencies Are Still Valid?

Procedia. Economics and finance, 2015

With the increasing international financial and economic integration, sovereign credit ratings have become one of the most important elements in directing global capital flows. Effects of credit rating agencies on both sovereign economies and the global economy have increased. On the other hand, CRAs have been heavily criticized for their poor performance in the crises of 1990s and the recent global financial crisis that started in 2008. The aim of this study is to examine the systematic and consistency of sovereign credit ratings given by CRAs and to identify the determinants of sovereign credit ratings. As a result of panel data analysis conducted by reverse engineering methodology within this context, GDP per capita, governance quality, current account balance, growth performance and growth expectations, being an industrialized country and having a reserve currency were identified as factors affecting sovereign credit rating positively. On the other hand; exchange rate volatility, interest payments, debt stock and default occurrences were the factors effecting credit ratings negatively. The findings of the analyses support the critiques against CRAs about being unable to foresee the economic crises and about deepening the existing crises by making sudden rating cuts.

On sovereign ratings: observations and implications

, as much of this note draws on that body of work. I would also like to thank John Chambers (S&P) and Mauro Leos (Moody's) and my IDB colleagues Ed Bartholemew, Eduardo Borensztein and my ex colleague Ugo Panizza for useful discussions on ratings, as well as the participants in the Sovereign Risk Seminar, held at the BIS January 8/9 2013 and particularly Bob McCauley at the BIS for his helpful and constructive suggestions. Remaining mistakes however are my own. All the opinions expressed are solely my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Inter-American Development Bank, those of its Board of Directors, or those of the countries they represent.