A proposito di validazione (original) (raw)

Abstract

When a hazard quantity a concerning rare events has to be estimated, the estimated value ais affected by a very large uncertainty. The background hypothesis cannot be validated in an absolute sense: the physical knowledge of rare events is weak; the classic statistical analysis assigns equivalent degree of acceptance to different hypotheses; no direct quantitative evidence can be derived from the poor data set. Here a relative cryterium of validation is used based on an index that measures the variability of estimated quantity; only two competing models are taken in consideration and judged on the basis of the above index.

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