The Brexit Scenarios: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship (original) (raw)
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Eight months on from the EU referendum in the UK, it is still not clear what shape the new relationship between the country and its EU partners will take. These will be the subject of negotiations that are expected to start following the triggering of Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (TEU), which is anticipated to occur in March 2017. Several studies have looked into the potential economic and financial impact of Brexit considering different scenarios, as well as into the consequences of the UK withdrawing from the Single Market under potential new arrangements with the EU. None of them has, however, thoroughly analysed the impact of the UK’s withdrawal on the rights of the estimated 4 million citizens who are likely to be directly affected by the outcome of the negotiations on the new UK-EU relationship, including the 3 million EU citizens residing in the UK and the 1.2m British citizens living across the EU.
The UK and the EU: The Implications of a Brexit for Europe
The possibility of Britain withdrawing from the European Union -a "Brexit" -has been receiving growing attention. Reports have largely focused on what this withdrawal could mean for the United Kingdom; however, there has been little analysis of what it could mean for the rest of the Union, its individual members, wider Europe, and other states around the world such as the United States and Japan. This analysis gathers 26 views from think-tanks, research institutions, and universities from sixteen EU member states, nine non-EU countries, and a view from the EU's institutions in Brussels. Five overall themes emerge from the contributions:
The future of the European Union after BREXIT
The future of the European Union after BREXIT, 2021
ABSTRACT: The article presents the changes that have taken place since Britain's decision to leave the Union. This process, which began with the organization of the Referendum in 2016, had a negative impact on both the EU's domestic and foreign policy, as well as its micro and macroeconomics. Doubts have been raised about the danger of a total or partial disintegration of the Community, as well as the possibility of the future EU development at several speeds. The question is whether, after Brexit, the gap in living standards between Member States and regions will begin to narrow or will there continue to be a confrontation between small/large in territory and poor/rich in economic development member states. The weakening of the European Union's political influence worldwide with regard to international organizations (UN, G7, G20, Commonwealth of Nations composed of 53 English-speaking Member States supporting the Queen of England, etc.) has been noted. The strengthening of Euroscepticism among the citizens of Europe has been noted, as well as the danger of fatigue before the deepening of European integration and the possibility of future EU enlargements with new member states (for example, with the countries of the Western Balkans).
Brexit and the Mutual Consequences Regarding Great Britain and European Union
2017
This research paper assesses the likely impact and consequences of Brexit on the European Union, together with some scenarios for the terms of the UK’s future secession. For the EU, the ongoing process is considering that the losses are found to be highly significant. The key research targets of this paper are the following; Britain is deeply divided over its membership of the EU. There is a risk of ‘political contagion’ from Brexit as it could fuel Euro skepticism elsewhere, particularly if the UK is seen to benefit in politically sensitive areas like migration. Brexit would mean years of uncertainty and wrangling to establish a new relationship between Britain and the EU, which would be damaging for businesses trading with and partners invested in the UK. All member states of the Union will feel the collision of Brexit as Europe will lose international esteem and foreign policy influence and have less leverage in trade negotiations. Brexit will harm the EU’s cohesion, confidence a...
The implications of Brexit for EU and UK external relations
2020
This handbook comes at a crucial moment in time. It was finalised on Europe Day, exactly 70 years after Robert Schuman underlined the need for ‘a united Europe’.1 At the same time, that same Europe is confronted with the withdrawal of one of its Member States. Schuman argued that ‘Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.’ These days, European solidarity is challenged and, indeed, has not proven capable of keeping all Member States on board. With his ‘realisation of the first concrete foundation of a European federation indispensable to the preservation of peace’, Schuman could not have predicted some Member States would end up seeing close European cooperation as something standing in the way of their own national and global ambitions.2
What Remains after Brexit? A View from the Outside
Australia and New Zealand Journal of European Studies, 2017
The British referendum result to opt for exiting the European Union (EU) has left both the United Kingdom (UK), as well as the rest of the EU with questions regarding the future of the integration and their future economic development. While the EU member-states present a united front in regards to the leave process, there are deeply rooted divisions on all other relevant policy questions. The issues of migration, foreign policy, and the level of cohesion within the EU itself represent the questions where there is little or no consensus. The paper concludes that both the UK and the EU need to address a deep political divide and find a way to coexist in the aftermath of Brexit.
Brexit aftermath - a lot of fuss over nothing The perspective of the EU-27 member states
International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2022
The uncertainty of the post-Brexit relations between the UK and the remaining EU-27 countries has caused political and economic concerns (Kroll and Leuffen, 2016). The ongoing negotiations concerning future relations cover various scenarios that may have different impacts on the individual economies in both an economic and a political sense. The article analyses consequences of the British voters' decision to withdraw from the European Union through the lens of a disintegration process and its main objective is to identify the scale and the nature of individual countries vulnerability toward Brexit. It demonstrates purely economic approach to the critical assessment of Brexit, with focus on building rankings of losers. In this way, we contribute to the ongoing debate on the Brexit negotiation process by providing strong arguments in favour of certain policy decisions. In line with the 'neighbour country hypothesis' and 'small country hypothesis', we assume that small economies will experience moderate to high negative consequences of Brexit, while larger ones will not be affected as much, having regard, however, to the country's location in relation to the UK.
Brexit From Different Perspectives
2017
The subject of the research is consequences of Brexit perceived from the perspective of the European Union, the United Kingdom and Poland. The research is an interdisciplinary law and economics study. The results show that the balance for the EU is negative. Brexit changes the internal and external perception and attractiveness of integration, which will no longer be perceived as a road with no return, which may result in subsequent withdrawals. It weakens the European identity. It closes the era of bargaining and concessions to the UK. The balance for the United Kingdom will also be negative. The economic costs of leaving the EU can neither be compensated by savings on EU budget payments nor by the dubious benefits stemming from the economic relations with third countries free of the European regulatory restrictions. At the same time, Brexit ends the era of controversy around EU membership and therefore forces the formulation of internal programmes and the implementation of a polic...
Goodbye Britannia? The International Implications of Britain's Vote To Leave The EU
The vote by the British people to withdrawal from the EU – also known as a " Brexit " – means both the UK and the EU now face an unprecedented challenge. Brexit could have significant implications for the EU, the ideas and structures of European integration, and European geopolitics. The UK itself faces an uncertain future. This article examines why Brexit has come to pass and explores what it could mean for the EU, European integration, and Europe's economics and security. It argues that as with many of the other problems the EU has faced, the EU and UK will muddle through a Brexit, coping but not solving the challenges it presents.