Cybernetic Revolution and Forthcoming Technological Transformations (The Development of the Leading Technologies in the Light of the Theory of Production Revolutions) (original) (raw)

The Cybernetic Revolution and the Forthcoming Epoch of Self-Regulating Systems

The monograph presents the ideas about the main changes that occurred in the development of technologies from the emergence of Homo sapiens till present time and outlines the prospects of their development in the next 30–60 years and in some respect until the end of the twenty-first century. What determines the transition of a society from one level of development to another? One of the most fundamental causes is the global technological transformations. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution; 2) the Industrial Revolution; and 3) the Cybernetic one. The book introduces the theory of production revolutions which is a new valuable explanatory paradigm that analyzes causes and trends of dramatic shifts in historical process. The authors describe the course of technological transformations in history and demonstrate a possible application of the theory to explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. They analyze the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and forecast the main shifts in the next half a century. On this basis the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Сybernetic’. They make some predictions about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of the twenty-first century and show that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The authors argue that the transition to the starting final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030–2040s) will first occur in the field of medicine (in some its innovative branches). In future we will deal with the started convergence of innovative technologies which will form the system of MANBRIC-technologies (i.e. the technological paradigm based on medicine, additive, nano- and bio- technologies, robotics, IT and cognitive technologies). The monograph gives an outline of the future breakthroughs in medicine and some other technologies (between the 2010s and 2070s).

The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process

The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and predict the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, ICT and other technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Cybernetic’. There are given some forecasts about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of twenty-first century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The article gives a detailed analysis of the future breakthroughs in medicine, and also in bio- and nanotechnologies in terms of the development of self-regulating systems with their growing ability to select optimal modes of functioning as well as of other characteristics of the Cybernetic Revolution (resources and energy saving, miniaturization, and individualization).

The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process. 18-57 Globalistics 2015

The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and predict the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in medicine, bio- and nanotechnologies, robotics, ICT and other technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as ‘Cybernetic’. There are given some forecasts about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of twenty-first century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The article gives a detailed analysis of the future breakthroughs in medicine, and also in bio- and nanotechnologies in terms of the development of self-regulating systems with their growing ability to select optimal modes of functioning as well as of other characteristics of the Cybernetic Revolution (resources and energy saving, miniaturization, and individualization).

The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process / Social Evolution & History. Vol. 14 No. 1, March 2015 125–184

The article analyzes the technological shifts which took place in the second half of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and predict the main shifts in the next half a century. On the basis of the analysis of the latest achievements in medicine, bio-and nanotech-nologies, robotics, ICT and other technological directions and also on the basis of the opportunities provided by the theory of production revolutions the authors present a detailed analysis of the latest production revolution which is denoted as 'Cybernetic'. There are given some forecasts about its development in the nearest five decades and up to the end of twenty-first century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. The article gives a detailed analysis of the future breakthroughs in medicine, and also in bio-and nanotech-nologies in terms of the development of self-regulating systems with their growing ability to select optimal modes of functioning as well as of other characteristics of the Cybernetic Revolution (resources and energy saving, miniaturization, and individualization). INTRODUCTION The present article presents the analysis of contemporary technological shifts and forecasts the future technological transformations on the basis of the theory of production principles and production

Global Technological Perspectives in the Light of Cybernetic Revolution and Theory of Long Cycles

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by breakthroughs in medical technologies which will manage to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some predictions concerning the development of these technologies.

Technological Dimension of Big History and the Cybernetic Revolution

History & Mathematics: Big History Aspects, 2019

The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of the human history. We introduce a new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution. We also describe the direction of technological transformations, discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. Our analysis of technological evolution mainly focuses on the second half of the 20 th century. We present a detailed analysis of the latest technological revolution which we denote as 'Сybernetic', and give some forecasts about its development up to the end of the 21 st century. It is shown that the development of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine , additive, nano, bio, robotic, IT and cognitive technologies). Today we are at the threshold of post-human revolution, the era of an intensive impact on the human body. The authors consider the directions of this revolution such as considerable life extension, organ replacement, BCIs, robotics, genome editing, etc. It is very important to understand the mechanisms of technological development and to measure the possible risks arising from them.

Chapter 6. Robotics and Other Technologies in the Cybernetic Revolution. Pp. 116-133. The Cybernetic Revolution

The concept of robot is very uncertain since today computer programs, manipulators, and other mechanisms, as well as human-like autonomous devices can be called a robot. But despite such a variety, a number of the main characteristics of robots of all types can be defined. It is of special importance for us that these characteristics coincide to a large extent with the characteristics of the Cybernetic Revolution and its technologies. First of all, an ideal robot (which can move, work and solve problems depending on the situation, as well as to meaningfully communicate) is a good example of a self-regulating system. It also visually reflects concrete manifestations of the main cybernetic categories, namely: active information processing (its receiving, analysis, distribution, transformation, etc.), management of the whole system (and of other objects) by means of information, flexible interaction with environment, existing contours of direct, and feedback links that allow fulfilling various functions. Many definitions also emphasize the aspiration to treat robot as a self-regulating system. For example, robot is a device capable to move independently in space, to cope with tasks of picture recognition and analysis, possessing a large mobility, able to analyze a situation by means of feedback and also to predict situations, relying on its own experience and available information (definition by Professor Shigeru Vataat, see Nakano 1988: 26).

Afterword. Threats and Risks of the Future World of Self-Regulating Systems. Pp. 134-145. The Cybernetic Revolution

How can we coexist with scientific and technical progress? We have completed our analysis of the history of development and of the current state of technologies as well as made some assumptions about the directions of their further development. But, of course, life will turn more diverse than any forecasts and even imaginations, and it is difficult to define what will become reality and what will not. But nevertheless, we have no doubts that the development will head for creation of self-regulating systems. We think there is coming a heyday of the systems which will work mostly independently and at the same time more insistently controlling the most diverse aspects of human life. All this claims for a deep understanding and some activity in order to minimize the emerging problems; for example, to prevent the emergence of a new and even more supervising ‘Big Brother’ knowing much more about us than the ‘Brother’ that visibly controls all our life on the Internet today. Not only our on-line chat, but also the genealogic tree, medical history, individual peculiarities of the organism and probably, even our thoughts will become accessible soon. Who, how and for what for purpose will use this information, can hardly be ignored.

The Sixth Kondratieff Wave and the Cybernetic Revolution

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call a phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by the breakthrough in medical technologies which will be capable to combine many other technologies into a single com-plex of MBNRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some forecasts concerning the development of these technologies.