Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk: Executive Summary (original) (raw)

An Assessment of Future Global Water Issues

After decades of neglect, water has recently become a part of the international political agenda. However, the focus of the debate on the global water crisis is still wrong. The main crisis is unlikely to come from water scarcity, though some countries will find it difficult to manage such problems. Instead, it is likely to come from continuing and rapid water quality deterioration, and the availability of investment funds. Neither of these two issues is being adequately reflected in global water debates. In addition, the targets of the water-related Millennium Development Goals are unlikely to be achieved universally by 2015, until and unless consumers pay for the water services they receive. The subsidies should be very specifically targeted to the poor.

Global water outlook to 2025

International Food Policy Research …, 2002

F or some time, experts have argued about the Earth's capacity to support ever larger human populations. Can the Earth produce enough food to feed 8 billion people? 10 billion? It now appears that one of the main factors limiting future food production will be water. This scarce resource is facing heavy and unsustainable demand from users of all kinds, and farmers increasingly have to compete for water with urban residents and industries. Environmental uses of water, which may be key to ensuring the sustainability of the Earth's water supply ...

The United Nations World Water Development Report 3

The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The ideas and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors; they are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. The contents of Parts 2 and 3 were contributed by the UN-Water Members and Partners listed on the title pages of the chapters therein. UNESCO and the United Nations World Water Foreword by Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations iv Foreword by Irina Bokova, Director-General of UNESCO v Foreword by Michel Jarraud, Chair of UN-Water and Secretary-General of WMO vii Preface by Michela Miletto, WWAP Coordinator a.i. and Richard Connor, WWDR 2014 Lead Author viii Acknowledgements x Photo credits xii Executive Summary 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 5. Infrastructure 5.1 Infrastructure and development 5.2 Opportunities for synergies in water and energy infrastructure 5.3 Moving forward 6. Food and agriculture 6.1 The water-energy-food nexus 6.2 The effects of increasing food demand on water and energy 6.3 Water for energy and the linkages to food security 6.4 Energy use in agrifood systems 6.5 Biofuels, water and food security linkages 6.6 Energy-smart agriculture 6.7 Towards a nexus approach 7. Cities 7.1 Global urbanization trends 7.2 Urban water ansd energy demands 7.3 The water-energy nexus in the urban context 7.4 Rethinking urban development in terms of water and energy 8. Industry 8.1 The relationship of water and energy with industry 8.2 The status of water and energy in industry 8.3 Water and energy metrics in industry 8.4 Forces influencing the use of water and energy in industry 8.5 Opportunities and trade-offs 9. Ecosystems 9.1 Ecosystems as the foundation of the water-energy nexus 9.2 Energy, water and ecosystems: Dependencies and impacts 9.3 An ecosystems approach to the water-energy nexus 10. Europe and North America 10.1 Hydropower 10.2 Conflicts over water use between energy and other sectors, and across borders 10.3 Coping with water scarcity 10.4 Climate change outlook and effects of water scarcity on thermoelectric power plants 10.5 Extraction of natural gas and oil from unconventional sources 11. Asia and the Pacific 11.1 Hydropower 11.2 Coal 11.3 Biofuels

The Rapidly Changing Global Water Management Landscape

Rapidly changing global conditions will make water resources management and provision of services increasingly complex – more than ever before in human history. These changing conditions will be precipitated by issues like population (number and structure), urbanization, industrialization, economic development, growth of the global middle class and their increasing aspirations for a better standard and quality of life, environmental quality, ecosystems needs, changing societal attitudes and perceptions, and their interactions. Climate change and fluctuations are already adding extra levels of uncertainty.

Water Sustainability in a Changing World

What is "water sustainability" and why is it so important? Definitions usually involve a long-term view towards water sufficiency. Water sustainability could be defined as supplying or being supplied with water for life or, perhaps more precisely, as the continual supply of clean water for human uses and for other living things. It is does not specify exactly how much water we have, nor does it imply the unrestrained, infinite availability of water. Rather, it refers to the sufficient availability of water into the foreseeable future. Water is, after all, a renewable resource, so sustaining its uses should be possible, shouldn't it? But it turns out that we can have too much water or too little water to meet our needs. Water availability is constrained by natural processes, water allocations across jurisdictional boundaries, the infrastructure necessary to deliver water for use, and human impacts on water quality and quantity. Various forces affect the nature, timing, and availability of water, which change throughout time. We shall call these forces the "drivers" at play in the world today. The Drivers Water, like all things on planet Earth, is changing. For the most part, these changes are driven by human activities, not nature. Water is changing due to our population growth and migration; it is changing from land use pressures and our energy choices; and it is changing due to a shifting climate (Schnoor, 2008). Water scarcity afflicts poor people most seriously, and global development goals are crucial for attaining a semblance of water sustainability for the impoverished.

Water Futures: the evolution of water scenarios

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2013

Until recently water resources management was done by extrapolating trends of individual indicators. Forty years ago studies showed social and economic factors interact, affecting global resources. Shell used scenarios to better understand the future of oil resources. Shiklomanov in 1998 completed a global study of future water resources use and availability. On the basis of his work and a scenario development process similar to Shell's, in 2000 the World Water Council published water resource management scenarios. In 2006 the UN World Water Development Report showed these scenarios were optimistic about the adoption of policies to improve water resources management. Decision-makers other than water managers were responsible for making and implementing such policies. Accelerating change and discontinuity in driving forces increase the uncertainty facing decision-makers. The Water Futures and Solutions Initiative now underway will advance this rapidly moving field using applied integrated systems analysis.

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2015

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fasttrack" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.