The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan (original) (raw)
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2010 Webersick Esteban Shibayama economic damage typhoons.pdf
This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to tropical cyclones. However, there are additional economic costs when sustained wind speeds are higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h), a level that generally will lead to a precautionary cessation of many human activities. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the paper calculates the potential economic costs for the year 2085 under a climate change scenario with a linear one-per cent yearly increase in CO 2 . Using a spatial distribution of economic activity in Japan, it is possible to forecast which parts of the country are likely to experience the highest loss risk.
Risk Analysis, 2010
A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya. (1) The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.
Climatic Change, 2010
Time loss due to increase in tropical cyclone intensity 2 The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.
Climate research, 2009
Zusammenfassung: Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulate the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.4. The results show that in the base case, the direct economic damage of tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change amounts to $19 billion globally (almost the same level as the baseline (current) global damage of tropical cyclones) in the year 2100, while the ratio to ...
Energy Policy, 2012
Global warming is likely to profoundly influence future weather patterns, and one consequence of this is the likelihood of an increase in tropical cyclone intensity. The present paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of introducing significant amounts of green energy in the electricity system in Japan in the light of the economic damage that an increase in tropical cyclone intensity could have on GDP growth between 2010 and 2085. Essentially the passage of a tropical cyclone will result not only in physical damage but also on a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity, which has an effect on GDP growth. By comparing the economic performance of different electricity system scenarios with the indirect economic damage of tropical cyclones from 2010 to 2085, based on the yearly economic data of green electricity, fossil fuel, GDP and population, it can be seen that the green scenarios are generally a cost-effective way of mitigating the effects of these weather systems, despite the large amount of initial investments necessary.
2012 Esteban Zhang Longarte cost benefit electricity typhoons.pdf
Global warming is likely to profoundly influence future weather patterns, and one consequence of this is the likelihood of an increase in tropical cyclone intensity. The present paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of introducing significant amounts of green energy in the electricity system in Japan in the light of the economic damage that an increase in tropical cyclone intensity could have on GDP growth between 2010 and 2085. Essentially the passage of a tropical cyclone will result not only in physical damage but also on a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity, which has an effect on GDP growth. By comparing the economic performance of different electricity system scenarios with the indirect economic damage of tropical cyclones from 2010 to 2085, based on the yearly economic data of green electricity, fossil fuel, GDP and population, it can be seen that the green scenarios are generally a cost-effective way of mitigating the effects of these weather systems, despite the large amount of initial investments necessary.
Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: an application of FUND
Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2010
Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.4. In the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to $2.4 billion globally (approximately 35% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while its ratio to the world GDP is 0.0007%. The paper also shows various sensitivity runs exhibiting up to 4 times the level of damage relative to the base run.
2010 Esteban Longarte-Galnares productivity decrease typhoons.pdf
A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya. (1) The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.
The impact of climate change on global tropical storm damages
This paper constructs an integrated assessment model of tropical cyclones in order to quantify the impact that climate change may have on tropical cyclone damages in countries around the world. The paper relies on a tropical cyclone generator in each ocean and several climate models to predict tropical cyclones with and without climate change. A damage model is constructed to compute the resulting damage when a cyclone strikes each country. Economic development is expected to double global tropical cyclone damages because more will be in harm's way. Climate change is expected to double global damage again, causing an additional $54 billion of damage per year. The damage is projected to be concentrated in North America and eastern Asia but many Caribbean islands will suffer the highest damages per unit of GDP. Most of the increased damage will be caused by rare but very powerful storms.
Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2019
Tropical cyclones cause widespread damage in specific regions as a result of high winds and flooding. Direct impacts on commercial property and infrastructure can lead to production shortfalls. Further losses can occur if business continuity is lost through disrupted supply of intermediate inputs from, or distribution to, other businesses. Given that producers in modern economies are strongly interconnected, initially localised production shortfalls can ripple through upstream supply-chain networks and severely affect regional and wider national economies. In this paper, we use a comprehensive, highly disaggregated and recent multiregion input-output framework to analyse the negative impacts of Tropical Cyclone Debbie, which battered the northeastern Australian coast in March 2017. In particular, we show how industries and regions that were not directly affected by storm and flood damage suffered significant job and income losses throughout upstream supply chains. Our results indicate that the disaster resulted in the direct loss of about 4802 full-time-equivalent jobs and AUD 1544 million of value added, and an additional indirect loss of 3685 jobs and AUD 659 million of value added. The rapid and detailed assessment of the economic impact of disasters is made possible by the timely data provision and collaborative environment facilitated by the Australian Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory (IELab).