A deepening and widening conflict: Nagorno-Karabakh and the regional context (original) (raw)
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The Second Armed Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh – Causes and Implications
Convergence and Confrontation: The Balkans and the Middle East in the 21st Century, 2021
The article aims to contribute to the discourse on the latest armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by analysing its causes and implications. Starting with the failure of the diplomatic process, it examines various factors, ranging from imbalances in local armed forces to broader changes in the region's geopolitical order that contributed to a shift in dynamics in this unresolved dispute and the outbreak of a new armed conflict between armenia and azerbaijan. azerbaijan defeated armenia decisively thanks to military superiority gained through increased military spending and political, military, and logistical assistance from Turkey. with this in mind, Turkey's role in the dynamics of this conflict is regarded as crucial. Furthermore, given Russia's traditional role as a mediator in unresolved conflicts in the post-Soviet space, changes in Russian-azerbaijani and Russian-armenian relations are analysed as factors that influenced the creation of conditions in which azerbaijan would feel strong enough to launch a new war. Russia's response is being considered in particular because, despite initial restraint, it has preserved its role as a key mediator in achieving peace in the region, seizing the opportunity to further strengthen it by deploying peacekeeping troops. although the armistice agreement ended the war, the question of the disputed area's final status remained unresolved. Because this is a critical
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Protracted Melted Conflict rather than a Frozen one
Forum of EthnoGeoPolitics Vol 8 No 1, 2020
This article discusses the recent re-eruption of the Karabakh war, which is about the ownership and control of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Province and seven surrounding districts in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The parties to this conflict are the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Armenian separatists from Karabakh supported by Armenia. Nagorno Karabakh is de jure part of Republic of Azerbaijan. However, it is mainly inhabited by ethnic Armenians and is de facto under the control of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh). This article seeks to offer an objective discussion of this conflict which has re-erupted again into a full-scale war since September 2020; it discusses the positions taken by surrounding countries as well.
THE CONFLICT OF AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO NAGORNO KARABAKH: AN OVERVIEW
Journal of Malay Islamic Studies, 2021
Every conflict and war has a prehistory , such as Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of them. In the current scenario, the Nagorno-Karabakh has become the centre of international politics. The article focuses on the conflicts of Nagorno Karabakh, about its actual geo-location, integrity, and sovereignty. Also, in this study, we have tried to highlight the political agenda of the world's top leading countries like Russia and France was backed by Armenia. At the same time Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Israel supported Azerbaijan. On 10 th November 2020, after six weeks of fierce fighting, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to end the military operation over the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the ceasefire brokered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan has described the decision to agree on a ceasefire as 'painful' for him and their citizens, while Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has claimed victory. Perhaps, the objective of the full involvement of Turkey in this fight was to give a signal of emerging as a leading country in the Muslim World. The ceasefire was organized by Russia between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which keeps Turkey and western countries out of the final peace talk, which seems like Russia wants to show remains a dominant power and its impact in the South Caucasus.
The Renewal of the Armenian- Azerbaijani Military Conflict - an Initial Analysis After the First Month of the Nagorno-Karabakh War, 2020
The resurgence of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war conflict in September 2020 raises a number of interesting and important issues. In my analysis, I argue that Russia, firmly opposing the escalation, has the greatest influence on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and not Turkey, a member of NATO, which is intervening on the side of Azerbaijan. Moscow has a number of tools at its disposal to counter it. Hopefully, a long lasting, large-scale war with many military, civilian casualties and great destruction could be avoided. Substantial negotiations between the opposing parties and a compromise concerning the settlement of the conflict would be very much needed. In the most likely military scenario, Russia will provide effective assistance to Armenia, so Azerbaijani war efforts to change the status quo in Karabakh will sooner or later fail. Russia, however, is unlikely to intervene in the war directly and admittedly, unless it becomes inevitable.
2011 IAI ISBN 978-88-98042-35-7 The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Current Trends and Future Scenarios
As Azerbaijan and Armenia celebrate the 20th anniversary of independence from the Soviet Union, both countries find themselves trapped in a decades-long territorial dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. Mediation efforts by the OSCE's Minsk Group have failed to produce a breakthrough so far. The political leadership of both countries is unwilling and unable to make painful concessions, fearing opposition from domestic public opinion and the Diaspora abroad. As the arms race in the region accelerates, there is little hope for peace in the near future. The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan will leave little room for political maneuvre. Meanwhile, growing frustration among both nations might lead to the outbreak of war and thus put the socio-economic development of the region and energy projects at great risk.
Role of International Actors in the Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
Nagorno-territory Karabakh's is internationally recognized as an integral part of Azerbaijan, which controls the Armenian-ethnic population. The unresolved territorial dispute between two states, "Armenia and Azerbaijan," over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is the most dangerous threat to the security of the South Caucasus and neighbouring states. The novel ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was brokered unilaterally by Russia, with the major regional actors excluded. As a result, the Armenian masses were outraged, and the territory's legal status remained ambiguous. For decades, the regional confrontation significantly altered geopolitical and geostrategic circumstances, as well as regional and non-regional actors' efforts to reach a comprehensive resolution. In this context, Turkey has a favorable impact on the entire region as a transit energy state, serving as a bridge to the West due to its distinctive location. With the participation of major regional stakeholders, the frozen conflict can easily be transformed into a new cycle of violence. This research aimed to analyze the role of regional actors in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and explore their geopolitical and geostrategic interests of regional and great powers by using secondary sources of data and seeking a solution to the conflict.
More than one Year Later: an Evaluation of the Geopolitical Implications of the Second Karabakh War
KKI Policy Brief, 2022
Abstract: This paper describes the background and main cornerstone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and reveals the main geopolitical outcomes of the second Karabakh war. It argues that the war has caused a major geopolitical shift in the region, as it has cemented Russia’s military presence in Karabakh, thus creating a frozen conflict despite the Azerbaijani victory and territorial gains. Furthermore, it has also strengthened the position of Turkey in the region and boosted the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance, which gathered pace throughout 2021. However, other regional actors such as Iran see this change as increasingly threatening. Various attempts to create a regional forum to mend fences and establish stability have had limited results, thus tensions remain permanent in the South Caucasus.
For more than a quarter-century, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been one of the most important factors influencing the political map of the South Caucasus. On 12 May 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, and Azerbaijan signed a cease-fire agreement that ended military operations in the conflict zone and has been observed until recently. Negotiations for a peaceful settlement have been underway within the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Minsk Group co-chaired by the USA, Russia, and France since 1992, but society and the elite in Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan remain largely unprepared for compromise. Considering the settlement process a zero-sum game, they have generally accused one another of escalating the conflict and of a lack of willingness to restore peace. Other countries and international organizations involved in the negotiations do not share a vision of the future and frequently pursue their own interests. Accordingly, the Karabakh conflict could remain unresolved for decades more. The aim of the paper is a general assessment of the current stage and dynamic of this conflict and the impact of new trends and old obstacles on the prospects for further settlement.