EuroSCORE-predicted mortality and surgical judgment for interventional aortic valve replacement (original) (raw)
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Cardiology, 2013
Objectives: In the evaluation of patients considered for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), the EuroScore II might be superior to established risk scores. Methods: We assessed the performance of the EuroScore II in predicting mortality in a cohort of 350 TAVI patients. Results: The EuroScore II and the logistic EuroScore were higher in nonsurvivors compared to survivors at 30 days (12.6 ± 1.8 vs. 7.5 ± 0.3%, p < 0.001 for EuroScore II, and 27.7 ± 2.8 vs. 22.1 ± 0.8%, p = 0.04 for logistic EuroScore), while the STS-PROM score did not differ (7.3 ± 0.8 vs. 6.4 ± 0.3%, p = 0.09). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.70 for the EuroScore II, 0.61 for the logistic EuroScore and 0.59 for the STS-PROM score for predicting 30-day mortality. Based on the estimated 30-day mortality risk, 3 risk groups were identified, a low-risk (EuroScore II ≤4%, 30-day mortality 1.2%), an intermediate-risk (EuroScore II between 4% and 9%, 30-day mortality 8.6%) and a high-risk group (EuroSco...
Clinical Research in Cardiology, 2013
Background The assessment of procedural risk is crucial in patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS score are currently used to estimate procedural risk and mortality for surgical and transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The recently published EuroSCORE II might provide a helpful tool. Methods The new EuroSCORE II was calculated in 206 patients undergoing transfemoral TAVI and compared to the established logistic EuroSCORE and STS mortality score. Discriminative power and calibration of each test was statistically evaluated. Results 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were 6.8 % (14/206) and 27.2 % (56/206). In-hospital mortality rate was 29.2 ± 17.8 % with logistic EuroSCORE, 9.5 ± 6.8 % with STS score, and 9.22 ± 7.12 % with Euro-SCORE II: Logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II were significantly increased in non-survivors compared to survivors at 30 days and at 1 year. EuroSCORE II and STS score (r = 0.49, p \ 0.001) showed moderate correlation, whereas strong correlation was found between Euro-SCORE II and logistic EuroSCORE (r = 0.71, p \ 0.001). ROC curve analyses for the prediction of 30-day mortality (AUC 0.79 vs. 0.69 vs. 0.71) and 1-year mortality (AUC 0.72 vs. 0.70 vs. 0.70) were performed. Statistical comparison revealed no difference between the AUCs (p [ 0.05).
Arquivos Brasileiros de Cardiologia, 2015
Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC)]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05). Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.
Archives of cardiovascular diseases
The Logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score are routinely used to identify patients at high surgical risk as potential candidates for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). To compare the new EuroSCORE II with the Logistic EuroSCORE and the STS score. From October 2006 to June 2011, patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis who underwent a TAVI were enrolled prospectively. Among 272 patients, the EuroSCORE II was significantly lower and moderately correlated with the Logistic EuroSCORE (9±8% vs. 23±14%, P<0.01; r=0.61, P<0.001), but similar to and poorly correlated with the STS (10±9%, P=0.10; r=0.25, P<0.001). Based on recommended high-risk thresholds (Logistic EuroSCORE≥20%; STS≥10%), a EuroSCORE II≥7% provided the best diagnostic value. However, using the EuroSCORE II, Logistic EuroSCORE or STS score, only 51%, 58% and 37% of patients, respectively, reached these threshold...
Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions, 2013
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (ESII) in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Background: The ESII was developed recently to improve the predictive value of the original logistic EuroSCORE (LES). Methods: Between October 2006 and November 2011, 453 consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI with either the Edwards valve or the Corevalve were included in the current analysis. The performance of the ESII, LES, and society of thoracic surgeons predicted risk of mortality score (STS) was evaluated. Results: Mean age was 83.1 6 6.4 years. The Edwards valve was used in 382 patients (84.3%) of the cohort, transfemoral approach (TF) in 55.0%, transapical approach (TA) in 25.2%, transaortic approach (TAo) 17.8%, transsubclabian approach (SC) 2.0%. The observed 30-day mortality was 12.6% (11.2, 18.4, 7.4, and 22.2% for TF, TA, TAo, SC, respectively). The mean LES, STS, and ESII were 22.4 6 12.1, 8.1 6 6.0, and 8.1 6 5.2, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed ESII was inadequately calibrated for 30-day mortality compared with other risk scores (ESII P 5 0.09, LES P 5 0.84, STS P 5 0.34). By using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), ESII better predicted 30-day mortality, albeit poorly, compared to LES and STS (AUC 5 0.68, 0.65, and 0.60, respectively). In the TF cohort, ESII was better in predicting 30-day mortality compared to LES and STS (AUC 5 0.74, 0.61, 0.60, respectively). Conclusions: Although the ESII demonstrated better predictive performance especially in the TF cohort, ESII is still inadequate in predicting mortality after TAVI as are LES and STS. V C 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
The Journal of heart valve disease, 2010
The study aim was to determine the clinical reliability of the EuroSCORE as a predictor of operative risk in aortic valve replacement (AVR). Between 2000 and 2007, a total of 1497 patients underwent isolated elective AVR (no endocarditis, aortic procedure or re-do) at the authors' institution. A fitting of the deviation of expected mortality (EM) from observed mortality (OM) was performed and studied. To identify the cause of deviation of EM, a multivariate analysis of the EuroSCORE variables (using SAS JMP software) was conducted on the available data, and the results were re-evaluated. An overestimation of EM was observed, and this was found to increase systematically with the rise in expected risk (0.3 +/- 1.0% at 5% OM versus 23.8 +/- 1.9% at 35% OM; p < 0.0001). A multivariate analysis of the EuroSCORE variables showed only age and preoperative neurological dysfunction as significant risk factors (p < 0.003 and < 0.04, respectively). All other EuroSCORE variables w...
Surgical and transcatheter aortic valve procedures. The limits of risk scores
2010
Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement in very high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis. The present multicenter, retrospective study investigates the accuracy and calibration properties of the EuroSCORE and the age, serum creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score in selecting a population of patients to be referred to TAVI. The study includes 1053 surgical and 211 transcatheter procedures. The operative mortality rate within the surgical group was 2%. The EuroSCORE and the ACEF score had similar levels of accuracy; the ACEF score was well calibrated and the EuroSCORE overestimated the mortality risk. The observed mortality rate within the transcatheter group was 10.4%. Cut-off values corresponding to a mortality rate of 10% were 26 for the logistic EuroSCORE and 2.5 for the ACEF score: both the EuroSCORE and the ACEF score may be used to refer patients to TAVI. However, they do not consider a number of 'extreme' risk conditions that may justify a transcatheter procedure even in absence of an overall elevated risk score. These risk conditions should be included in a specific risk model for referring patients for TAVI.