Predicting the effect of ionising radiation on biological populations: testing of a non-linear Leslie model applied to a small mammal population (original) (raw)

2013, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

The present work describes the application of a non-linear Leslie model for predicting the effects of ionising radiation on wild populations. The model assumes that, for protracted chronic irradiation, the effect-dose relationship is linear (the increase in the mortality of the individuals is proportional to the dose rate). The model was tested using independent data and information from a series of experiments that were aimed at assessing the response to radiation of wild populations of meadow voles and whose results were described in the international literature. The values of the effect-dose proportionality factor, C, which relates the mortality rates to the dose, was estimated by a suitable calibration of the model results to the time dependent data of the population size. Such estimates were lower than the corresponding values of C assessed by accounting for the median lethal dose (L 50 ) determined by laboratory experiments on small mammals subjected to acute and protracted irradiation. Most likely a wild population can more efficiently respond to the radiation effects by profiting from the non-expressed biotic potential of the species whose growth is limited by processes of environmental resistance, such as the competition among the individuals of the same or of different species for the exploitation of the available resources, which are nonlinearly dependent on the population size.

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