Tutorial On Business And Market Modeling To Aid Strategic Decision Making: System Dynamics In Perspective And Selecting Appropriate Analysis Approaches (original) (raw)
Related papers
2014
Transport modelling is a fundamental tool for planning and economic assessing of transport infrastructures. To provide reliable results, models should be able to deal with the complexity of the transport system. This is traditionally faced using aggregated models that are incapable of analysing the operations taking place in terminals, even though their performance is crucial for the global competitiveness of any transport system. In this paper a combined approach consisting of a traditional transport modelling –encompassing both tactical and strategic levelsand discrete event simulation –to study terminals at the operational levelis presented. Along with an expected improvement in the level of accuracy of results, this increased-scale approach makes it possible to gain a better understanding of the project as a whole, connecting macroeconomics and microeconomics. This approach has been initially developed for the early design and analysis stages for the Central Bioceanic Railway Co...
Demand forecasting plays an integral role both in planning and managing urban transportation infrastructure. Analyzing travel demand is an integral part of any transportation system. Different types of demand forecasting models are being used by transportation industries not only to plan for renovation and expansion but also to evaluate several policy scenarios associated with the particular infrastructure system. The traditional demand forecasting models that exist mostly focus on individual transportation sectors such as air-transportation, highways, etc. and not much attention is given to consider the interdependencies and complexities among the various components and thus many-a-times ignore the emergent behaviors. To overcome this deficiency, the research study applied a system-of-systems approach to forecast the overall public transport demand considering all the different sectors of the transportation network of an integrated public transport system. However, forecasting the public demand for each transportation mode is a major challenge as it depends on several uncertain factors such as population growth, GDP growth of the country, traffic congestion on roads, average annual income of population, ticket prices, travel types and others. System dynamics modeling approach was adopted to represent the information and physical flows among the different components / entities within a system at an aggregate level with high degree of accuracy. These types of models would help the decision makers in evaluating several policy scenarios by altering the model variables and developing investment strategies for future transportation infrastructure planning. This research paper developed a conceptual framework to assess the public demand for individual transportation modes in an integrated transportation network using Abu Dhabi's surface transport expansion and integration project as a case study .
Development of a Transportation System Simulation Manual Framework: From Theory to Practice
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2016
After several decades of advances, simulation has become an important tool in the modeling of transportation systems and is widely applied in practice. Guides have been created by organizations in several countries, and dozens of papers have been published in scientific journals on the theory and application of transport simulation; these works are aimed at guiding practitioners in the use of simulation tools. However, transport simulation still lacks a unified and comprehensive guide for use in practice. The lack of such a document leads to conflicts between modelers, agencies, and decision makers and allows inappropriate use of the models. The outcome is often inaccurate results, inefficient use of resources, and conflict. This paper reviews and analyzes the existing transportation simulation guides. It identifies gaps and limitations and proposes an outline for a comprehensive simulation manual that is based on stakeholder input. Review of the existing guidance documents reveals ...
Transportation Letters, 2020
Easing transport congestion within a crowded urban environment requires management of travel demand. Managing traffic congestion in urban areas requires a set of effective policies and knowing when to apply them. In this paper, we focus on the managers' need to determine the most effective policies to respond to changing travel demands. We propose a new framework to achieve this aim by applying a combination of a System Dynamics approach and a Data Envelopment Analysis technique. Despite previous studies that integrate discrete-event simulation with multi-criteria decision-making approaches, the combination of a system dynamics approach with a data envelopment analysis technique proposed in this paper shows an improvement both in forecasting the travel demand and managing it through effective policies.
This report presents the creation and simulation of a model based on system dynamics, applied to a complex system, in this case a system of urban public transport for medium-sized cities, evaluating the service quality variables based on comfort and speed. Simulation was performed in four scenarios, in which the value of the variable “Time interval of dispatches” was modifi ed, as it corresponds to an attribute of the operational planning of transport and is subjected to change without altering the physical infrastructure of the road network. This analysis showed the necessity of changing the interval when sending vehicles at peak hours to improve service quality
315 Modelling automated technologies within a strategic transport model
1 ABSTRACT There is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. These systems include cybercars, personal rapid transit (PRT), automated or high-technology buses, and dual mode vehicles. Assessing the contribution of such systems when applied extensively in an urban area is challenging. This paper describes how each of the technologies was represented in a systems dynamics model (MARS) using a case study of Vienna (AU). The unique supply characteristics need to be encapsulated, and the technologies need to be assessed when operating in conjunction with a range of other policy instruments. The scale of the applications ranges from small feeder systems, through PRT networks to automated bus corridor applications, and finally area wide effects of implementing dual mode vehicles within the fleet. The paper describes how we dealt with the inclusion of such variations in scale and reports on initial results. 2 INTRODUCTION As part of...
Modelling automated technologies within a strategic transport model
1 ABSTRACT There is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. These systems include cybercars, personal rapid transit (PRT), automated or high-technology buses, and dual mode vehicles. Assessing the contribution of such systems when applied extensively in an urban area is challenging. This paper describes how each of the technologies was represented in a systems dynamics model (MARS) using a case study of Vienna (AU). The unique supply characteristics need to be encapsulated, and the technologies need to be assessed when operating in conjunction with a range of other policy instruments. The scale of the applications ranges from small feeder systems, through PRT networks to automated bus corridor applications, and finally area wide effects of implementing dual mode vehicles within the fleet. The paper describes how we dealt with the inclusion of such variations in scale and reports on initial results. 2 INTRODUCTION As part of...
Transportation systems analysis: Illustrations and extensions of a conceptual framework
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1983
This paper illustrates and extends our previous conceptual framework for the description of the components and interactions of transportation systems. The framework, which made use of the notions of procedure (or mapping) and steady state equilibrium, previously comprised demand, performance and supply aclions procedures. It is augmented here with cosf minimization and production procedures. We also consider the question of system specification dependence or of the way in which demand, performance and supply denotations depend on the particular system considered. Finally, we outline some temporal aspects of the notion of equilibrium in a transportation system.
Structure of Transport Model on Strategic Level of Management for Assessment of its Configuration
Journal of KONES, 2017
The aim of the article is to present the issues related to the use of the transport model for ex-ante evaluation of the functional and operational configuration of ITS. Variants of ITS configuration have been presented based with use of ITS user needs from FRAME methodology and with use of ITS user services implemented in cities of Poland. The structure of the transport model on strategic level of traffic management has been presented in the context of the following impact of ITS configuration: changes in the use of paths in network, changes in the use of transport system modes, changes in the destinations of trips, and changes in the number of trips for various purposes. The results of transport model enable a comparison, using an incremental method, results of transport decisions of users, obtained in specified forecast horizons for the ITS variants of configuration. Structure of transport model presented in article is suitable for strategic level of traffic management with long-t...