Cointegration inferences on issues of poverty and population growth in Nigeria (original) (raw)
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Impact of Population Growth on Poverty in Nigeria
GUSAU JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
This study investigates the impact of population growth on poverty rate in Nigeria over the period: 1986 to 2021. To achieve this objective, time series data was collected mainly from National Population Commission (NPC) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) techniques. The results indicate the nonstationary of the variables. That is, both population growth and poverty rate time series are integrated of order one I(1). The study tested for cointegration using Johensen cointegration and the result indicates the presence of cointegration among the variables of study. Considering the integration and cointegration nature of the data, Dynamic Ordinary Least Square was estimated to avoid the possible problems of spurious regression and serial correlation. The result revealed a significant negative long-run impact of population growth on poverty in in Nigeria. Based on the empirical finding...
Future Business Journal, 2021
The controversial debate on whether high population translates to weak or better economic growth has been a topical discussion in the area of development economics. This study therefore uses the data of the Nigerian economy to investigate the links among population growth, growth in output and income per capita growth for the periods of 1981-2018. The study employs both ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration and fully modified least square methods to evaluate the parameter estimates. We found that there exists a long-run relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria. Further, the study found that the statistical and significant effect of population growth is more on long-run income growth than long-run income per capita growth. Meanwhile, in the short-run, an adverse effect is reported from population growth to economic growth, implying that the former has a detrimental effect on the latter. The reason for the adverse effects of population growth in the short-run results from the high number of dependents, whereas, in the long-run, there is a chance of demographic dividend that makes the young people becomes productive in their adulthood. Our findings, therefore, support the league of many studies that population growth is an asset to the long-run economic growth of Nigeria. In contrast, it has a poor impact on economic performance in the short-run. Thus, there is a need for proper and adequate utilization of the country's rising population in appropriate areas of the economy where their efforts would be fully utilized towards improving the overall growth of Nigeria.
An Empirical study on the relationship between Poverty, Inequality and Economic Growth in Nigeria
The paper used bound testing approach to cointegration and Granger causality test to determine the relationship between poverty, inequality and economic growth in Nigeria. A secondary time series data were used in the study from 2000 to 2012. In examining the causal relation among the variables, the result shows that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from RGDP to poverty, which means that an increase in GDP in Nigeria causes high level of poverty. In addition, the result revealed that the RGDP Granger causes the literacy level without a feedback. The result further infers that the bidirectional causal relationship existed between literacy and poverty. The paper also indicated that population growth Granger causes literacy without feedback while unidirectional causality exists between poverty and population. The policy implication is that demand management policies aim at reducing the gap between rich and poor should be vigorously pursued in order to minimise the rate of lingering inequality in the country and spur institutional change that will bring about betterment of people in the country. More so, concerted effort is needed to strengthen small and medium enterprises through tax holiday, access to finance and temporal protection so that more employment would be generated which in turn will reduce poverty and inequality.
Revisiting population growth and food production nexus in Nigeria: an ARDL approach to cointegration
Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal
Purpose. This study focused on the relationship between the increasing population and level of food growth in Nigeria. Methodology / approach. Agriculture’s contribution to GDP was used to proxy food production alongside population growth rate. The ARDL Model was used to estimate both long and short run population-food growth relations over a 35-year period of 1982–2016. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Philip Peron and Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin stationarity tests were carried out to ensure the stationarity of the variables. Results. The results showed that the variables are integrated of mixed order. The Bounds test established cointegration between population growth and food production in Nigeria which validated the Malthusian theory. However, the estimates revealed that population growth had a positive and significant relationship with food growth in both the long and short run. This implies that increase in population is yet to take a negative effect on availability of food a...
A Primer on Cointegration: Application to Nigerian Gross Domestic Product and Export.
Abstract: This paper examines Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Export (EXP) of Nigeria between 1970 and 2007 using data from Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin of 2008 for cointegration. Applying Autocorrelation Function (ACF), we find that each of the variables (GDP and Export) is non-stationary. Augmented Engle-Granger reveals that the regression of GDP on Export is actually cointegrated and not spurious. An error correction model shows that GDP does not adjust to change in EXP in the same time period. The regression model obtained also shows that the short-run changes in EXP have a positive impact on the short-run changes in GDP.
DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY LEVEL IN NIGERIA
Poverty in Nigeria is high and widespread and has been a severe problem to both individuals and successive governments causing socioeconomic and political problems in the economy. The study therefore investigates the determinants of poverty in Nigeria. A linear regression model was employed to understand if there is any significant relationship between Poverty level in Nigeria and selected explanatory variables. Employing poverty growth rate as the dependent variable, Income level growth rate, Adult literacy Growth Rate, Government Expenditure on Health Growth Rate and Misery Index Growth Rate were employed as explanatory variables. Unit root test using the Augmented Dickey Fuller test was conducted to test for stationarity among variables employed. The Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Bound Test for Co-integration was also employed while the Granger Causality test was conducted so as to ascertain the causal relationship between variables. The ECM was also conducted. Based on our findings, the study recommends for poverty to be reduced, there should be an improvement in the health sector, a check in the rising inflation and unemployment rate in Nigeria and an improvement in human capital development through formal and informal education.
Macroeconomic Stability and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria: A Cointegration Approach
Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences
The strategy of Inclusive growth is a newly introduced concept in Development economics that emerged in late 2000s out of the gross failure of traditional growth models to deal with the contemporaneity of high economic growth on one hand, and soaring poverty, inequality and unemployment on the other hand particularly in the developing world. Ever since, it has dominated policy-making framework in the world. This study sets out to examine the inclusiveness of growth in Nigeria and the role of macroeconomic stability to spur inclusive growth and development in Nigeria using the data for the period of 1960-2012. Due to lack of a standard measure of inclusive growth, an index of inclusive growth has been constructed using 23 agricultural, economic, education, environmental and health variables while applying Principal Component Analysis and Human Development Index formula. Econometric approaches of Johansen Cointegration testing and Vector Error Correction Model have been employed furth...
Unemployment, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria
Journal of Economics and Management, 2019
Aim/purpose-This study investigates the links between unemployment, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria between the periods, 1985-2015. Design/methodology/approach-The paper employed the Augment Dickey Fuller test for unit root test, Johansen cointegration for cointegration, Ganger causality for causality test and Error Correction Model to establish the short-run links between the variables. Findings-The unit root test result revealed that the variables trend with time indicating their failure of integration at level. However, they were found to be stationary at first difference. The causality result revealed that there is no causal relationship between unemployment, poverty and growth in Nigeria. Similarly, the cointegration results showed that there is no long-run relationship between unemployment, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria. The short-run parameter estimates indicated that unemployment has a negative and significant relationship with growth. However, the coefficient of the interaction between unemployment and poverty is positive and significant at the conventional level.
Effect of Population Growth on Unemployment in Nigeria
Current Trends in Social and Management Sciences Research, 2023
This study investigates the impact of population growth on the unemployment rate in Nigeria using the Auto Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is used as a tool to determine series stationarity. Variables considered in the study include unemployment, literacy rate, life expectancy, real GDP, and population. The ARDL cointegration test is used to determine whether there is a cointegration relationship between variables. Furthermore, the results of the cointegration test indicate the presence of cointegration between the explanatory variables and the unemployment rate in Nigeria. The results of the study show that population growth and life expectancy have a positive impact on unemployment in Nigeria. In contrast, the literacy rate and the unemployment rate have an inverse relationship. Additionally, non-oil real gross domestic product shows a negative association with the unemployment rate. The Granger causality test was used to examine further the correlation between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria. The results show that there is no bidirectional causal relationship between population and unemployment, suggesting that each variable is not significantly responsible for the other. However, the probability value of the Granger causality between population and unemployment is 0.1413, which is higher than the significance level (0.005) leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis. This implies that population growth Granger causes unemployment in Nigeria. This result corresponds to the expectations of a developing country like Nigeria, where the number of jobs created does not keep up with population growth.
Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation
Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2013
Economic growth is said to be pro-poor if the poverty measure adopted falls with increased growth rate. Poverty researchers have investigated this phenomenon mainly in the context of income poverty. The fact that poverty goes beyond income has received little attention. This study appreciates the multidimensional nature of poverty. It sees poverty in its non-income dimension, highlights the concept of pro-poor growth, and also empirically analyzes if economic growth in Nigeria is, or could be, pro-poor. In our empirical analysis a vector autoregressive model was formulated and estimated within an error correction framework. Within this framework, we have analyzed annual time series data to capture, quantitatively, the effects on human-capital poverty of economic growth and other control variables, both in the short-and long-term. Results showed that in the medium-to-long term, agricultural development raised human capital poverty, while developing the other sectors of the economy reduced it. In the short-term, public capital expenditure on social services, including credit to the agricultural sector, and agricultural development generally, showed a potential to reduce poverty. Public capital expenditure on economic services, growth in the non-agricultural sector of the economy, and increased urbanization intensified the incidence of human capital poverty. These results indicate that government expenditures on human capital development through the social services sector tend to reduce human-capital poverty. They underscore the desirability of adequate capital expenditures on education and health; and also suggest the need for enhancing the pace of rural transportation with a view to creating non-agricultural employment opportunities and minimize the rate of urban growth.