Reasons for the Current Afghan Migration to the EU Qualitative research on the reasons for and against migrating to the EU in North and North-East Afghanistan (original) (raw)

During the course of 2015, the number of migrants arriving in Europe more than doubled in comparison to the previous year. Of those making the journey, Afghans represent the third largest migrant group (14% of registered asylum seekers in the EU), with many choosing Germany as their final destination. This report discusses the causes of this large-scale migration, dividing its drivers into ‘push and pull factors’, and also outlining inhibiting factors. The report is based on field research carried out in four Northern and North-Eastern Afghan cities (Sheberghan, Mazar-e Sharif, Pul-i Khumri and Taloqan). The core of the study comprises 195 guideline interviews with households that have migrant members (61%) as well as with households that do not have migrant members (39%). The drivers of migration (the push, pull and inhibiting factors) as extracted from 195 guideline interviews conducted in early 2016, explain the growing readiness to leave Afghanistan and to choose Europe (and Germany in particular) as the preferred destination. However, the study found that worsening security and economic prospects, on the one hand, and the stability and welcoming attitude towards migrants in Europe on the other, could not fully explain the dramatic increase in migration beginning in early 2015, and dropping sharply in spring 2016 after the EU-Turkey migrant deal came into effect. Therefore, the study strongly points to one specific and overlooked driver explaining the significant change in migration dynamics between late 2014 and early 2016, namely a dramatic drop in the financial cost of migration starting in late 2014, and prevailing until early 2016. The cost of migration during this period decreased by approximately 85%, compared to average costs in previous years (from approximately $ 14-17,000 until late 2014 to $ 2,500-3,000 in 2015 and early 2016). The study noted a shift from “smuggler-facilitated” to mostly “self-organised” illegal migration. This shift coincided with a more permissive attitude by authorities in key transit states - most importantly Turkey – in terms of formal and informal administrative and law-enforcement harassment of migrants. The EU-Turkey migrant deal in force since 20 March 2016 seems to have re-established the status quo ante. Since then the costs of illegal migration have significantly risen again (prices are back to approximately 75% of their 2014 levels) and professional smugglers are back in business facilitating illegal migration from Afghanistan to the EU.