PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN: ANALISIS HUKUM OKUN Darman (original) (raw)

The concept of a negative relationship between economic growth (Gross Domestic Product) and unemployment rate is known as Okun's law (Okun's Law) or the Okun coefficient. The application of Okun's law in Indonesia uses time series data from 1999 to 2013. The method used is the difference version of Okun's law to gain Okun coefficient and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis to obtain the regression coefficients. In a macroeconomic framework, Okun's law states that if the GDP grows at 2.5% above the trend, which has been achieved in a given year, the unemployment rate will fall by 1 %. From various studies conducted by several researchers can be seen that the Okun coefficient in each different country. In Indonesia, the scientific literature that specifically raised the Okun's law does not available, so the study aims to look at how the application of Okun's law in Indonesia The results showed that Okun's law applies in Indonesia, where the Okun coefficient is negative. The unemployment rate tends to increase in line with GDP growth reached. ABSTRAK Konsep hubungan negatif antara pertumbuhan ekonomi (Gross Domestic Product) dan tingkat pengangguran dikenal sebagai hukum Okun (Okun's law) atau koefisien Okun. Penerapan hukum Okun di Indonesia menggunakan data time series tahun 1990-2013. Metode yang digunakan adalah difference version hukum Okun untuk mendapatkan koefisien Okun dan analisis Ordinary Least Square (OLS) untuk mendapatkan koefisien regresi. Dalam kerangka ekonomi makro, hukum Okun menyatakan bahwa apabila GDP tumbuh sebesar 2,5% diatas trendnya, yang telah dicapai pada tahun tertentu, tingkat pengangguran akan turun sebesar 1%. Dari berbagai penelitian yang dilakukan oleh beberapa peneliti dapat diketahui bahwa koefisien Okun di tiap-tiap Negara berbeda. Di Indonesia, literature ilmiah yang khusus mengangkat Hukum Okun belum ada, maka penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat bagaimana penerapan Hukum Okun di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hukum Okun berlaku di Indonesia, dimana koefisien Okun bernilai negatif. Tingkat pengangguran cenderung meningkat seiring dengan dicapainya pertumbuhan GDP. Kata kunci: hukum okun, pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat pengangguran