Breast cancer risk in young women in the national breast screening programme: implications for applying NICE guidelines for additional screening and chemoprevention (original) (raw)
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Cancer Prevention Research, 2012
The aim of this study is to determine breast cancer risk at mammographic screening episodes and integrate standard risk factors with mammographic density and genetic data to assess changing the screening interval based on risk and offer women at high risk preventive strategies. We report our experience of assessing breast cancer risk within the U.K. National Health Service Breast Screening Program using results from the first 10,000 women entered into the "Predicting Risk Of breast Cancer At Screening" study. Of the first 28,849 women attending for screening at fifteen sites in Manchester 10,000 (35%) consented to study entry and completed the questionnaire. The median 10-year Tyrer-Cuzick breast cancer risk was 2.65% (interquartile range, 2.10-3.45). A total of 107 women (1.07%) had 10-year risks 8% or higher (high breast cancer risk), with a further 8.20% having moderately increased risk (5%-8%). Mammographic density (percent dense area) was 60% or more in 8.3% of women. We collected saliva samples from 478 women for genetic analysis and will extend this to 18% of participants. At time of consent to the study, 95.0% of women indicated they wished to know their risk. Women with a 10-year risk of 8% or more or 5% to 8% and mammographic density of 60% or higher were invited to attend or be telephoned to receive risk counseling; 81.9% of those wishing to know their risk have received risk counseling and 85.7% of these were found to be eligible for a risk-reducing intervention. These results confirm the feasibility of determining breast cancer risk and acting on the information in the context of population-based mammographic screening. Cancer Prev Res; 5(7);
BMJ, 2000
Objective To assess the impact of the NHS breast screening programme on mortality from breast cancer in women aged 55-69 years over the period 1990-8. Design Age cohort model with data for 1971-89 used to predict mortality for 1990-8 with assumption of no major effect from screening or improvements in treatment until after 1989. Effect of screening and other factors on mortality estimated by comparing three year moving averages of observed mortality with those predicted (by five year age groups from 50-54 to 75-79), the effect of screening being restricted to certain age groups. Setting England and Wales. Subjects Women aged 40 to 79 years. Results Compared with predicted mortality in the absence of screening or other effects the total reduction in mortality from breast cancer in 1998 in women aged 55-69 was estimated as 21.3%. Direct effect of screening was estimated as 6.4% (range of estimates from 5.4-11.8%). Effect of all other factors (improved treatment with tamoxifen and chemotherapy, and earlier presentation outside the screening programme) was estimated as 14.9% (range 12.2-14.9%). Conclusions By 1998 both screening and other factors, including improvements in treatment, had resulted in substantial reductions in mortality from breast cancer. Many deaths in the 1990s will be of women diagnosed in the 1980s and early 1990s, before invitation to screening. Further major effects from screening and treatment are expected, which together with cohort effects should result in further substantial reductions in mortality from breast cancer, particularly for women aged 55-69, over the next 10 years.
2010
Objectives To estimate the absolute numbers of breast cancer deaths prevented and the absolute numbers of tumours overdiagnosed in mammographic screening for breast cancer at ages 50-69 years. Setting The Swedish Two-County randomized trial of mammographic screening for breast cancer, and the UK Breast Screening Programme in England, ages 50-69 years. Methods We estimated the absolute numbers of deaths avoided and additional cases diagnosed in the study group (active study population) of the Swedish Two-County Trial, by comparison with the control group (passive study population). We estimated the same quantities for the mortality and incidence rates in England (1974-2004 and 1974-2003, respectively). We used Poisson regression for statistical inference. Results A substantial and significant reduction in breast cancer mortality was associated with screening in both the Two-County Trial (P , 0.001) and the screening programme in England (P , 0.001). The absolute benefits were estimated as 8.8 and 5.7 breast cancer deaths prevented per 1000 women screened for 20 years starting at age 50 from the Two-County Trial and screening programme in England, respectively. The corresponding estimated numbers of cases overdiagnosed per 1000 women screened for 20 years were, respectively, 4.3 and 2.3 per 1000. Conclusions The benefit of mammographic screening in terms of lives saved is greater in absolute terms than the harm in terms of overdiagnosis. Between 2 and 2.5 lives are saved for every overdiagnosed case.
Breast cancer incidence related with a population-based screening programme
Medicina Clínica (english Edition), 2015
Objective: To compare breast cancer cumulative incidence, time evolution and stage at diagnosis between participants and non-participant women in a population-based screening programme. Methods: Cohort study of breast cancer incidence in relation to participation in a population screening programme. The study population included women from the target population of the screening programme. The source of information for diagnostics and stages was the population-based cancer registry. The analysis period was 1999-2010. Results: The relative risk for invasive, in situ, and total cancers diagnosed in participant women compared with non-participants were, respectively, 1.16 (0.94-1.43), 2.98 (1.16-7.62) and 1.22 (0.99-1.49). The relative risk for participants versus non-participants was 2.47 (1.55-3.96) for diagnosis at stage I, 2.58 (1.67-3.99) for T1 and 2.11 (1.38-3.23) for negative lymph node involvement. The cumulative incidence trend had two joint points in both arms, with an Annual
Programme Grants for Applied Research
BackgroundIn the UK, women are invited for 3-yearly mammography screening, through the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP), from the ages of 47–50 years to the ages of 69–73 years. Women with family histories of breast cancer can, from the age of 40 years, obtain enhanced surveillance and, in exceptionally high-risk cases, magnetic resonance imaging. However, no NHSBSP risk assessment is undertaken. Risk prediction models are able to categorise women by risk using known risk factors, although accurate individual risk prediction remains elusive. The identification of mammographic breast density (MD) and common genetic risk variants [single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] has presaged the improved precision of risk models.ObjectivesTo (1) identify the best performing model to assess breast cancer risk in family history clinic (FHC) and population settings; (2) use information from MD/SNPs to improve risk prediction; (3) assess the acceptability and feasibility of offering risk as...
British Journal of Cancer, 2020
BackgroundOver the past 30 years since the implementation of the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme, improvements in diagnostic techniques and treatments have led to the need for an up-to-date evaluation of its benefit on risk of death from breast cancer. An initial pilot case-control study in London indicated that attending mammography screening led to a mortality reduction of 39%.MethodsBased on the same study protocol, an England-wide study was set up. Women aged 47–89 years who died of primary breast cancer in 2010 or 2011 were selected as cases (8288 cases). When possible, two controls were selected per case (15,202 controls) and were matched by date of birth and screening area.ResultsConditional logistic regressions showed a 38% reduction in breast cancer mortality after correcting for self-selection bias (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.56–0.69) for women being screened at least once. Secondary analyses by age group, and time between last screen and breast cancer diagnosis ...
British Journal of Cancer
Background: Population breast screening has been implemented in the UK for over 25 years, but the size of benefit attributable to such programmes remains controversial. We have conducted the first individual-based cohort evaluation of population breast screening in the UK, to estimate the impact of the NHS breast screening programme (NHSBSP) on breast cancer mortality. Methods: We followed 988 090 women aged 49-64 years in 1991 resident in England and Wales, who because of the staggered implementation of the NHSBSP, included both invited subjects and an uninvited control group. Individual-level breast screening histories were linked to individual-level mortality and breast cancer incidence data from national registers. Risk of death from breast cancer was investigated by incidence-based mortality analyses in relation to intention to screen and first round attendance. Overdiagnosis of breast cancer following a single screening round was also investigated. Results: Invitation to NHSBSP screening was associated with a reduction in breast cancer mortality in 1991-2005 of 21% (RR ¼ 0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.84, Po0 Á 001) after adjustment for age, socioeconomic status and lead-time. Breast cancer deaths among first invitation attenders were 46% lower than among non-attenders (RR ¼ 0.54, 95% CI: 0.51-0 Á 57, Po0.001) and 32% lower following adjustment for age, socioeconomic status and self-selection bias (RR ¼ 0.68, 95% CI: 0.63-0 Á 73, Po0.001). There was little evidence of overdiagnosis associated with invitation to first screen. Conclusions: The results indicate a substantial, statistically significant reduction in breast cancer mortality between 1991 and 2005 associated with NHSBSP activity. This is important in public health terms.
Cancer medicine, 2018
Breast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosis and the leading cause of cancer death among women in the world, and differences across populations indicate a role of hormonal, reproductive and lifestyle factors. This study is based on a cohort of 78,050 women invited to undergo a mammogram by Local Health Authority of Milan, between 2003 and 2007. We carried out a nested case-control study including all the 3303 incident breast cancer cases diagnosed up to 2015, and 9909 controls matched by age and year of enrollment. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression models. The ORs were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.78-0.98) for an age at menarche ≥14 years and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.07-1.81) for an age of 30 years or older at first pregnancy. Body mass index (BMI) was positively associated with breast cancer risk in women older than 50 years (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.54-2.31, for BMI≥30 vs. <20), while the association tended to be inverse in y...
Breast cancer risk feedback to women in the UK NHS breast screening population
British journal of cancer, 2016
There are widespread moves to develop risk-stratified approaches to population-based breast screening. The public needs to favour receiving breast cancer risk information, which ideally should produce no detrimental effects. This study investigates risk perception, the proportion wishing to know their 10-year risk and whether subsequent screening attendance is affected. Fifty thousand women attending the NHS Breast Screening Programme completed a risk assessment questionnaire. Ten-year breast cancer risks were estimated using a validated algorithm (Tyrer-Cuzick) adjusted for visually assessed mammographic density. Women at high risk (⩾8%) and low risk (<1%) were invited for face-to-face or telephone risk feedback and counselling. Of those invited to receive risk feedback, more high-risk women, 500 out of 673 (74.3%), opted to receive a consultation than low-risk women, 106 out of 193 (54.9%) (P<0.001). Women at high risk were significantly more likely to perceive their risk as...