The impact of the spatial mismatch between parolee and employment locations on recidivism (original) (raw)
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Final Technical Report: Neighborhoods, Recidivism, and Employment Among Returning Prisoners
The rising number of individuals being released from prison has prompted renewed interest among researchers, policy makers, and practitioners in reintegrating former prisoners. Yet relatively little is known about the communities into which former prisoners return and how they affect the likelihood that former prisoners will secure stable employment or return to prison. This research fills an important gap in the literature on prisoner reentry by focusing on the role that community context plays in the labor market outcomes and recidivism of former prisoners. A rich set of longitudinal administrative records were assembled on individuals paroled in Michigan during 2003, including records from corrections, police, and unemployment insurance databases. This report describes the data collected and presents results indicating that neighborhood context predicted both the recidivism and labor market outcomes of former prisoners. The analysis considered the association between baseline neighborhood characteristics (first post-prison neighborhood) and cumulative exposure to neighborhood conditions during one’s time on parole. The analysis of baseline neighborhood characteristics was based on the full population of 11,064 people released on parole in Michigan in 2003, whereas the analysis of time-varying neighborhood characteristics was based on a 1/6 sample (n=1,848). Returning to a more disadvantaged baseline neighborhood was associated with higher risks of absconding and returning to prison for a technical violation, a lower risk of being arrested, and more adverse labor market outcomes, including less employment and lower wages. Cumulative exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods was associated with lower employment and wages but not related to recidivism. Returning to a more affluent baseline neighborhood was associated with a lower risk of being arrested, absconding, and returning to prison on a technical violation, and more positive labor market outcomes, including greater employment and wages. However, cumulative exposure to affluent neighborhoods was not significantly related to any of the recidivism or labor market outcomes when the full set of controls were added to models. Returning to a more residentially stable baseline neighborhood was associated with a lower risk of absconding and returning to prison for a new conviction, but not with any labor market outcomes; nor was cumulative exposure to residentially stable neighborhoods associated with any recidivism or labor market outcomes. Returning to a baseline neighborhood with a younger age structure was negatively related to the odds of returning to prison on a technical violation, but when measured as cumulative exposure it was associated with an increased risk of being arrested, absconding, and being returned to prison for either a new commitment or technical violation. Being employed substantially reduced the risk of all recidivism outcomes, but there was no evidence that employment mediated the association between neighborhoods and recidivism. Together, these results suggest that the neighborhoods parolees experience during parole were strong predictors of recidivism and labor market outcomes, but there is not a simple answer to the question of what neighborhood characteristics constitute “risky” environments for parolees. Neighborhood socioeconomic composition was a strong predictor of labor market outcomes, as parolees residing in disadvantaged neighborhoods had difficulty securing employment and escaping poverty. For recidivism, the protective effect of living in a residentially stabile neighborhood and the risks posed by spending more time in neighborhoods with higher densities of young people were the most robust predictors. From a policy perspective, these findings suggest that parole outcomes might be improved through more careful evaluation of a parolee’s neighborhood context when approving new residences, placement of institutional housing for former prisoners in more advantaged neighborhoods, inclusion of neighborhood context in risk assessments to better target services to former prisoners in high risk neighborhoods, and place-based parole strategies involving geographically based agent caseloads.
Recent scholarship focuses on the role neighborhood context plays in reof- fending. These studies lack an examination of how the size of the parolee population at the neighborhood-level impacts individual recidivism. We examine how the size and clustering of parolee populations within and across neighborhoods impacts individual-level recidivism. Using data from parolees returning to three Ohio cities from 2000 to 2009, we examine how concen- trations of parolees in neighborhoods and in the surrounding neighborhoods impact the likelihood of reoffending. We also examine whether parolee clus- tering conditions the relationship between neighborhood-level characteris- tics and recidivism. Results show concentrated reentry increases recidivism, while parolees in stable neighborhoods are less likely to recidivate. Also, the positive effect of parolee concentration is tempered when parolees return to stable neighborhoods. These findings suggest that augmenting resources available in neighborhoods saturated by parolees, as well as bolstering resi- dential stability in these same neighborhoods might reduce reoffending.
Parolee Concentration, Risk of Recidivism, and the Consequences for Neighborhood Crime
We examine whether the clustering of certain types of higher-likelihood-ofrecidivating parolees in neighborhoods differentially influences violent and property crime. We also test whether the relationship between the concentration of certain types of parolees and crime is moderated by disadvantage. We examine parolees released between 2000 and 2009 in Cleveland, Ohio, and neighborhood crime data. Results suggest that increases in certain types of parolees contribute to a corresponding increase in crime. This suggests that risk factors associated with reoffending might explain larger crime trends in neighborhoods. Furthermore, the broader neighborhood context compounds these risk factors, resulting in higher rates of crime.
Race and the Geography of Opportunity in the Post-Prison Labor Market
Social Problems, 2020
Research on racial disparities in post-prison employment has primarily focused on the differential effects of stigma on blacks and whites, but we otherwise know little about racial differences. This paper examines racial differences in post-prison employment by industry and geography. We find that the formerly incarcerated are most likely to find work in a small number of “felon-friendly” industries with formerly incarcerated whites having higher employment rates than blacks. Whites are more likely to be employed in felon-friendly industries associated with the primary labor market, particularly construction and manufacturing, which have higher wages and more job stability. To explain these racial differences, we investigate the degree to which employment among the formerly incarcerated is related to where felon-friendly employers are located and where individuals who work in felon-friendly industries live. We find that post-prison employment is associated more with proximity to wor...
This study examines the direct, reciprocal, and indirect effects of parolees on neighborhoods, including residential vacancies, property sales, public assistance, and crime. Cross-lagged autoregressive models are estimated using a unique data set containing annual neighborhood information on parolees, crime rates, and neighborhood structure in the city of Cleveland, Ohio, between 2000 and 2008. Results suggest parolees degrade neighborhood structure, and these effects are direct, reciprocal, and indirect. Understanding how the presence of parolees can contribute to changes in neighborhood processes linked to crime will broaden our understanding of the effects that parolees have on communities and highlight additional areas for intervention.
Local Labor Market and Post Prison Employment: Evidence from Ohio
2007
This paper examines relationship between local labor market conditions and ex-prisoner employment in Ohio. It asks: How do local labor market conditions (i.e., county-level unemployment rates) affect (1) the time it takes ex-prisoners to find a first job upon release, and (2) their ongoing post-prison employment experiences (during the first two years post release from prison)? It uses administrative data on persons released from Ohio state prisons that have been linked with the state's unemployment insurance records to track both pre-and post-prison employment experiences of prisoners released during 1999 and 2000. It develops discrete duration models to analyze the length of the spell of initial unemployment that ensues upon release from prison and individual-level fixed effects models of the probability of employment during the first 8 quarters post-release from prison. It finds, first, that county unemployment rates are negatively associated with the time to find a first job upon release from prison. The marginal effect of a onepercentage point increase in county unemployment rates is to decrease the probability of exiting the initial spell of unemployment by about 2 percentages points (from a baseline exit rate of 16%). Second, pre-prison employment experiences have much larger and enduring effects on the probability of exiting the initial spell of unemployment than do local labor market conditions. An additional quarter of pre-prison employment increases the probability of exiting unemployment by 6%. Third, despite these effects of local labor market conditions, more than one-third of ex-prisoners had not found a first job by the end of the 8 th quarter after release. Fourth, using propensity score methods, the paper finds that obtaining a vocational training program certificate reduces the probability of exiting the initial spell of unemployment and also of quarterly employment. For offenders who were employed prior to prison and who obtained the vocation certificates, employment probabilities increased. Finally, local labor market conditions are negatively associated with quarterly post-prison employment probabilities during the first two years following release from prison. The marginal effect of a one-percentage point change in county unemployment rates on the baseline (36% average) probability that ex-prison will be employed post-prison is estimated to be about 5 percentage points.
Journal of Criminology, 2024
Drawing on recent scholarship on mass incarceration and prisoner re-entry, this study examines the reciprocal relationship between returning parolees and neighbourhood crime rates in five large cities in Texas. Besides the more common approach of counting the number of people on parole in communities (parolee concentration), we propose a novel approach for measuring people on parole by capturing their exposure in the community as parolee embeddedness (i.e., the cumulative number of days that people on parole resided in the neighbourhood). Results show that parolee concentration has a significant positive effect on both violent and property crime, but parolee embeddedness is significantly associated with reductions in violent and property crime. Our findings detect different effects depending on the measurement of people on parole and their community context, illustrating the need to better understand the dynamics of parolee re-entry in the era of mass incarceration.
Justice Quarterly
The dramatic growth in incarceration nationally has increased attention to the factors that influence recidivism among ex-prisoners. Accordingly, scholars have called for research that identifies factors, such as employment opportunities, that may influence reentry experiences. Few studies, however, have examined how changes in labor market conditions affect ex-prisoner offending. Drawing on prior scholarship, this study examines the effect of such changes on the recidivism of ex-prisoners and, in particular, how the recidivism among blacks and whites may be differentially affected by changes in labor market conditions in the areas to which they return. The analyses indicate that, among black male ex-prisoners, labor market declines increase violent recidivism. They also indicate that, among white male ex-prisoners, the effects are more tenuous, influence only property recidivism, and are moderated by prior labor market conditions and criminal history. Implications of the study are ...
RACE‐SPECIFIC EMPLOYMENT CONTEXTS AND RECIDIVISM*
Criminology
Although much literature has examined macrolevel employment contexts and crime rates and, at the individual level, employment and offending, few studies have examined systematically whether macrolevel employment contexts influence individual-level offending. At the same time, emerging literature on prisoner reentry increasingly underscores the potential importance of the social environment for impeding or facilitating successful transitions back into society. All three avenues of inquiry have emphasized the salience of race-specific and offense-specific effects. This study extends prior work on ecology and offending, employment and crime, and prisoner reentry by examining the race-specific effects of unemployment rates and manufacturing employment rates on violent, property, and drug recidivism. By analyzing data on male ex-prisoners released to 67 counties in Florida, we found, as hypothesized, that Black ex-prisoners released to areas with higher Black male unemployment rates have...
Crime & Delinquency, 2021
For 312 women on probation and parole, we used mediation and conditional process analyses to examine the indirect effect of minority racial/ethnic status on unemployment through spatial mismatch between women’s place of residence and the location of available jobs. Consistent with the spatial mismatch hypothesis, employment opportunities per capita within 2 miles of women’s census tract of residence mediated the relationship between minority status and unemployment. The connection of spatial mismatch to unemployment was less pronounced for women with high levels of transportation access. Findings point to the importance of broader social policies to support well-developed transportation systems and community-based job development.