Rainfall Dynamics and Climate Change in Kano, Nigeria (original) (raw)
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Evaluation of rainfall trends in Nigeria for 30 years (1978-2007)
International Journal of Physical Sciences, 2010
The issue of climate change appears to be on the fore burner and it cannot be ascertained to occur without evidence. Rainfall is one of the climatic factors that can indicate climate change. In this work, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to test for significant trend in rainfall in Nigeria through randomly selected locations in the six geopolitical zones within a 30 years period (1978-2007). The selected locations are; Maiduguri (13°10',11°50') in the North East, Kaduna (7°27',10°31') in the North West, Lokoja (6°45',7°43') in the North Central, Ibadan (3°53',7°22') in the South West, Enugu (7°30',6°27') in the South East and Calabar (8°28',4°57') in the South South. During the 30 years period, the yearly average rainfalls (mm) were 580.5
Evaluation of rainfall trends in Nigeria for 30 years
academicjournals.org
The issue of climate change appears to be on the fore burner and it cannot be ascertained to occur without evidence. Rainfall is one of the climatic factors that can indicate climate change. In this work, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to test for significant trend in rainfall in Nigeria through randomly selected locations in the six geopolitical zones within a 30 years period (1978-2007). The selected locations are; Maiduguri (13°10',11°50') in the North East, Kaduna (7°27',10°31') in the North West, Lokoja (6°45',7°43') in the North Central, Ibadan (3°53',7°22') in the South West, Enugu (7°30',6°27') in the South East and Calabar (8°28',4°57') in the South South. During the 30 years period, the yearly average rainfalls (mm) were 580.5
Analysis of recent changes in rainfall and drought indices in Nigeria, 1981–2015
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2019
This study assesses the climate change impact on rainfall and drought incidents across Nigeria. Linear regression, Mann-Kendall tests and lag-1 serial correlation were adopted to analyse the trends and variability of rainfall and drought at 18 synoptic stations. Analysis of annual precipitation series indicates an increase in rainfall amounts at all stations, except Minna, Gusau and Yola. Seventeen of the 18 stations recorded at least one main drought period, between 1983 and 1987. A decreasing trend for the standardized precipitation index SPI-12 series was seen at Yola station, while the other stations showed an increasing trend. Also, Nigeria witnessed more annual rainfall totals but with high variability within the rainy months of the year in the first 15 years of the 21st century compared to the 20th century. Such variability in rainfall may have a significant effect on groundwater resources and the hydrology of Nigeria.
The Effects of Climate Change on Rainfall Pattern in Warri Metropolis, Nigeria
Journal of Science
The study examines rainfall characteristics in Warri metropolis for the past 30 years (1986-2015). Rainfall data was collected from the archives of Nigerian Meteorological Agency; and oral interview was also conducted. The study exploited rainfall characteristics such as daily, monthly and yearly amount of rainfall, intensity, frequency, variability, trends, return period and fluctuation of rainfall. Simple Linear Regression analysis and Standardized Rainfall Anomaly Index (SAI) were used to analyze the data. Among other findings, the correlation coefficient (-0.156) shows a negative relationship between rainfall and time (years). The trend line regression equation Y=243.75-0.4572X, confirms that rainfall in Warri Metropolis is decreasing at the rate of-0.45 per year. Recommendations given included continual monitoring and study of rainfall characteristics and other climatic data and dissemination of such information for planning purposes; drastic reduction of gas flaring in the metropolis, legislation against indiscriminate deforestation and need for proper urban planning.
The 2005 Rainfall and rainy days of Umudike and Uyo in southeast agro-ecological zone of Nigeria were compared with their long-term averages (32 years). Simple descriptive statistics and Kendall Tau correlation coefficients were used to analyze the data. Rainfall amount showed significant positive correlation (r = 0.93, 0.85). Amount of long-term rainfall and rainy days in the study area showed significant positive correlation (r = 0.72, 0.88). Similarly, rainfall amount and rainy days in 2005 in the area showed significant positive correlation (r = 0.71, 0.86) was also observed between the long-term averages, rainy days and those of 2005. In the seasonal pattern the LTA of rainfall showed that 12.5% and 11% falls between November and March in Uyo and Umudike, respectively, whereas the 2005 rainfall and rainy days depicted 16.04% and 18.35% to 14.08%, 14.39% for Uyo and Umudike, respectively.
Monthly Variation and Annual Trends of Rainfall across Major Climatic Zones in Nigeria
Taiwo Adedeji, 2018
This study focused on analysing variability and trends in rainfall in ten meteorological stations across Nigeria namely, 0 E) in Sudan Savanna while Sokoto (13.01˚N, 5.15˚E) Maiduguri (11.51˚N, 13.05˚E) in Sahel savanna. Monthly rainfall data for this study for the period of 31years (1985-2015) were obtained from the archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Oshodi, Lagos.The Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used to determine the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation in all the study areas.Simple linear regression analysis and a modified non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test were used to analyse the trends exhibited by the variable. The monthly analysis shows that period of highest rainfall falls in June or July for the locations nearest to the coast and August or September for the locations closer to the Sahara desert. The annual rates of increase /decrease in rainfall over the period of investigation 1985-2015 were;-0.44mm/year forPort Harcourt, 0.693mm/year for Ikeja, 1.581mm/year for Benin,0.316mm/year for Makurdi, 1.268mm/year for Ilorin, 0.754mm/year for Enugu, 0.668mm/year for Kaduna, 1.873mm/year for Bauchi, 0.294mm/year for Sokoto and 0.821mm/year for Maiduguri. Both linear regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test results show increasing rainfall trend in all the studied locations except in Port Harcourt that shows a decreasing trend. However, rainfall trends were only statistically significant in Benin, Ilorin, Bauchi and Maiduguri (at p < 0.05) at 95% confidence level. This study reveals that Nigeria is experiencing a rise in rainfall. The implication of this is that Nigeria is susceptible to the attendant consequences of global warming. In this regard the human population in Nigeria dependent on economic activities that are rainfall sensitive such as agriculture are vulnerable to risks. This study recommends the provision of accurate and timely weather and climate information for planning in the sectors of the economy that are rainfall sensitive such as agriculture,health, water resources management. This would prevent rainfall extremes from becoming disasters and threats to livelihood across Nigeria.
Trends of Rainfall and Temperature over North-Eastern Nigeria (1949-2014)
IOSR Journal of Environmental Science, Toxicology and Food Technology, 2017
Climate change has the propensity to alter rainfall and temperature regimes across the world, including Nigeria. This paper investigated the trends of rainfall and temperature in northeastern parts of Nigeria, based on data obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency for the period of 66 years (1949-2014). The Statistical techniques used for analysis are Mann-Kendall's test for trend, descriptive statistics, time-series plots and correlation analysis. The analyses performed involve the use of XLSTAT 2016 and Excel 2007. Results show a decreasing trend in annual total rainfall over both a long-term period (1949-2014) and a first short-term period (1949-1981), while a positive trend for the second short-term period (1982-2014) has been observed. The temperature on the other hand, showed an increasing trend over all the 3 periods especially the long-term period (1949-2014) which shows positive trends ranging from 0.04 °C/decade at Ibi to 0.09 °C/decade at Bauchi, with high level of significance at 0.001. Therefore, it concludes that temperature has increased over long and short periods while rainfall has increased only in the most recent period (1982-2014).
Changes in rainfall characteristics in northern Nigeria
International Journal of Climatology, 1998
This study examines recent changes in several rainfall characteristics in northern Nigeria. The records at 25 locations were analyzed for the occurrence of abrupt changes and trends using the Pettitt and the Mann-Kendall tests. Variables analyzed included annual total rainfall and number of rain days, the dates of onset, termination and duration of the rainy season as well as monthly rainfall, monthly number of rain days and various categories of rainfall above certain intensities. An abrupt change occurred in the time series of annual rainfall, number of rain days and affected areas north of latitude 11°N. However, the sub-periods prior to and after the change points may be considered to be homogenous. The series of variables related to the duration of the rainy season exhibit no significant trends or jumps. It is concluded that recent changes in rainfall over the Sahel were driven by a reduction in the frequency of rain days of high rainfall intensities during the months of August and September. The fact that the high intensity rainfall does not contribute significantly to crop growth may explain the continuation of agricultural activities in the Sahel despite massive reductions in annual rainfall.
The concern for climate change had led to an upsurge in climate research with most of such efforts concentrated on rainfall. The thrust of such studies showed that annual rainfall series was on the decrease in most parts of the Sahelian region of Africa since late 1960s with a slight recovery from the year 2003 onwards. The objective of this paper is to analyze monthly rainfall variations for further evidence of climate change in Sokoto state,
This study investigates rainfall and temperature variabilities in Nigeria using observations of air temperature (oC) and rainfall (mm) from 25 synoptic stations from 1971-2000 (30years). The data were analyzed for the occurrences of abrupt changes in temperature and rainfall values over Nigeria while temporal and spatial trends were also investigated. Statistical approach was deployed to determine the confidence levels, coefficients of kurtosis, skewness and coefficient of variations. Analysis of air temperature indicated that in the first decade of 1971-1980 anomalies between-0.2 and-1.6 were predominant, in the second decade of 1981-1990, only five stations (Lokoja, Kaduna, Bida, Bauchi and Warri) shows positive anomaly while greater portion of the country were normal with evidence of warming in the third decade of 1991-2000. Results further indicated that there have been statistically significant increases in precipitation and air temperature in vast majority of the country. Analyses of long time trends and decadal trends in the time series further suggest a sequence of alternately decreasing and increasing trends in mean annual precipitation and air temperature in Nigeria during the study period. Abstract-This study investigates rainfall and temperature variabilities in Nigeria using observations of air temperature (o C) and rainfall (mm) from 25 synoptic stations from 1971-2000 (30years). The data were analyzed for the occurrences of abrupt changes in temperature and rainfall values over Nigeria while temporal and spatial trends were also investigated. Statistical approach was deployed to determine the confidence levels, coefficients of kurtosis, skewness and coefficient of variations. Analysis of air temperature indicated that in the first decade of 1971-1980 anomalies between-0.2 and-1.6 were predominant, in the second decade of 1981-1990, only five stations (Lokoja, Kaduna, Bida, Bauchi and Warri) shows positive anomaly while greater portion of the country were normal with evidence of warming in the third decade of 1991-2000. Results further indicated that there have been statistically significant increases in precipitation and air temperature in vast majority of the country. Analyses of long time trends and decadal trends in the time series further suggest a sequence of alternately decreasing and increasing trends in mean annual precipitation and air temperature in Nigeria during the study period.