Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations (original) (raw)
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Impact of different climate change scenarios on rainfed cropping systems in Central Italy
2008
The rainfed cropping system based on the durum wheat-sunflower rotation is very common in Central Italy, to the point of being the almost exclusive system in some areas. The predominance of the system, and the suboptimal environmental conditions in which such system is implemented make it at risk in scenarios of possible worsening of weather patterns as estimated by weather change scenarios. The objectives of this paper were: 1) to estimate the impact of climate change on the agronomic performance and long term soil fertility; 2) to explore adaptation strategies and to identify research needs. Three years of field data on current cropping system practices were collected at two microcatchments of the Marche (Central Italy) to calibrate the cropping systems simulation model CropSyst. Crops yield and soil organic matter dynamics were analyzed in relation to increased air temperature and CO 2 concentration, as forecasted by different future climate scenarios. To assess the impact of climatic change on mean crop yields and variability, two fifty-years equilibrium climate datasets were generated from a local 20-years daily temperature and rainfall dataset assuming for each scenario constant climate at different atmospheric CO 2 concentration: "baseline" [CO 2 ] = 350 ppm; 2040 equilibrium [CO 2 ] = 450 ppm. To assess the long term impact of climatic change on soil organic matter content, three 100-years transient climatic scenarios were generated from a 20-years daily temperature and rainfall dataset of a neighbouring station: transient "baseline" scenarios with current [CO 2 ] = 350 ppm; transient "A2" and "B2" scenarios, characterised by an yearly increase of [CO 2 ] starting from current conditions to final values of 840 and 620 ppm respectively. Under 2040 equilibrium scenario, sunflower showed a slight increase of mean grain yield +12%, while durum wheat grain yield was not significantly different from "baseline". Under "baseline" transient scenarios and starting from a current soil organic matter content of 0.9%, CropSyst simulated a progressive decrease of soil organic matter down to 0.6% after 100 years. Under "B2" and "A2" scenarios, increased soil temperature simulated by CropSyst resulted in a sharper decrease of the soil organic matter, leading respectively 0.5% and 0.4% after 100 years. Results suggest that while climate change impacts on current rainfed cropping systems of central Italy may not be visible in the short term on crop yields, long term sustainability is expected to decline noticeably, even under "baseline" climatic scenarios. In terms of bio-physical research, further efforts should be addressed on the relationships between agronomic practices and seasonal dynamics of soil organic matter mineralization due to soil temperature.
Impact of climate change on wheat and winter maize over a sub humid climatic environment
Accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere has exposed us to the potential warming and its adverse effects on agriculture. The present study deals with the impact of climate change on winter wheat and maize using the Infocrop model. Simulation studies were performed for different timeperiods using HADCM3 factors at four centres located in three different agroecological zones, with prevalent management practices. The results showed that under changed climate, wheat yield decreased whereas the yield of winter maize increased due to warmer winters and enhanced CO 2 compared to baseline. Duration of both the crops has decreased owing to the higher temperatures during the growing period. The increase in yield of winter maize points to the suitability of the region for its cultivation in future. Further, increase in maize cultivation in locations with poor wheat yield could well be considered as an adaptation option.
Modeling high-resolution climate change impacts on wheat and maize in Italy
Climate Risk Management, 2021
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2009
Temperature and CO2 are two important parameters related to climate change, which affect crop yield. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of these two factors on the productivity of the four major cereal food crops (wheat, rice, maize and pearl millet) taking New Delhi as study area. This study also aims at identifying the most sensitive growth phase of these crops to the rising temperature. A soil-plant growth simulator CropSyst model was used for this purpose. Calibrated crop coefficients and soil data of the study area were collected from the previous experiments. Five years’ weather data was used to simulate the actual crop yield under unstressed condition. Maximum and Minimum temperature was increased by 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 C for whole year. Yield was simulated with different rising temperature scenarios.. Yield was also simulated at present level of CO2 as well as doubled CO2 situation using each of the rising temperature scenarios. To find out the most se...
Journal of Agriculture Research and Technology, 2019
Climate change is by far one of the most challenging factors influencing of agricultural activities and productivity. Crop production is mainly dependent up on the climatic condition of the given area. Currently climatic factors are changing all over the world. Therefore, the production and productivity of the crops become greatly influenced by the changing climatic variables. Lobell and Field (2007) stated that since 1981 for recent climate trends have suppressed global yield wheat, maize and barley. According to the same authors although % reduction from current yield levels may look small, but the absolute losses in global production due to warming trends since 1981 were substantial. For the 330 ppm CO 2 levels the GCM scenarios projected a decrease in yield of maize, caused by a shorter crop growing season due to higher temperatures and a precipitation deficit. Alexandrov and Hoogenboom (2000) studies predicted that the duration of the regular crop-growing season for maize would be reduced by 5 (HadCM2) to 20 (GFDL-R15) days shorter by 2020s. Similarly, maturity dates for maize were predicted to occur between 11 and 30 days earlier by 2050s under Indian condition. However, these are predicted at a national level using GCMS, needs to be checked and validated in Regional/Zonal level using crops mainly. Considering the existence of regional differences in climatic, geographic, and Abstract Two field studies on four maize hybrids across dates of sowing (three) and N levels (three) were carried out during two successive Kharif seasons of 2015 and 2016 at the main campus of University of Agricultural Sciences Dharwad, Karnataka, India. Out of these four sets of experimental data two sets we reused for DSSAT-CERES-Maize model calibration and other two sets for evaluation. This model was further run for seasonal analysis using 32-years historic weather data (1985-2016) as baseline to study the impact of elevated temperature (+1 and +2 ºC above baseline) and CO 2 (450 and 500 ppm from current levels of 400 ppm) for the first fortnight of June sowing under potential condition. The model simulated values showed that for baseline temperature across the tested hybrids, on average, a grain yield of 8910 kg ha-1 was predicted; however with rise in temperature by 1 and 2°C the grain yield, compared with baseline, reduced by 6.24 and 12.5%, respectively. In contrast, rise in CO 2 levels from the current levels (400 ppm) to 450 and 500 ppm increased the grain yield, on average across hybrids, by 1.0 and 2.0%, respectively, which suggest that negative impact of rising temperature on yield would be compensated with rise in CO 2 levels to an extent of only 1% for every increase in 50 ppm in maize, thus indicating that adverse impact of warmer climate on maize crop heavily overweigh the small benefit of rise in atmospheric CO 2 levels in C 4 crop like maize. Therefore, this study underlines the importance of containing further rise in atmospheric temperature by adopting climate mitigation strategies in agriculture and non-agriculture sectors.
Global Change Biology, 1995
The effect of elevated [CO2I on the productivity of spring wheat, winter wheat and faba bean was studied in experiments in climatized crop enclosures in the Wageningen Rhizolab in 1991-93. Simulation models for crop growth were used to explore possible causes for the observed differences in the CO2 response. Measurements of the canopy gas exchange {CO2 and water vapour) were made continuously from emergence until harvest. At an external [CO2] of 700 \imo\ mol-\ Maximum Canopy COj Exchange Rate (CCERmax) at canopy closure was stimulated by 51% for spring wheat and by 71% for faba bean. At the end of the growing season, above ground biomass increase at 700 |imol mol"^ was 58% (faba bean), 35% (spring wheat) and 19% (winter wheat) and the harvest index did not change. For model exploration, weather data sets for the period 1975-88 and 1991-93 were used, assuming adequate water supply and [CO2I at 350 and 700 ^lmol mol''. For spring wheat the simulated responses (35-50%) were at the upper end of the experimental results. In agreement with experiments, simulations showed smaller responses for winter wheat and larger responses for faba bean. Further model explorations showed that this differential effect in the COj response may not be primarily due to fundamental physiological differences between the crops, but may be at least partly due to differences in the daily air temperatures during comparable stages of growth of these crops. Simulations also showed that variations between years in COj response can be largely explained by differences in weather conditions (especially temperature) between growing seasons.
Climate Research, 2002
We projected US agricultural production in 2030 and 2090 at 45 representative sites, using 2 scenarios of climate change, developed with the Hadley Centre Model and the Canadian Centre Climate Model, and the DSSAT (Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer) dynamic crop-growth models. These simulation results have previously been aggregated nationally with the aid of economic models to show an increase in overall US agricultural output under climate change. In this work, we analyzed the regional distribution of the simulated yields, showing that positive results largely depend on the precipitation increases projected by the climate scenarios. In contrast, in some important rainfed production areas where precipitation was projected to decrease, such as the Kansas and Oklahoma Bread Basket regions under the Canadian Centre Climate Model scenario, climate change resulted in significant reductions of grain yield (−30 to −40%), accompanied by increased year-to-year variability. We also discussed the response to additional factors affecting the simulated US crop production under climate change, such as higher temperature and elevated CO 2. KEY WORDS: Climate change • Agriculture • Elevated CO 2 • US National Assessment • Adaptation Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 20: 259-270, 2002 response to elevated CO 2 is relatively greater when water is a limiting factor, compared to well-watered conditions (Chaudhuri et al. 1990, Kimball et al. 1995). The contrary is true for nitrogen applications: wellfertilized crops respond more positively to CO 2 than less fertilized ones (Sionit et al. 1981). Finally, CO 2 will affect differently C3 (e.g. wheat, soybean, citrus) and C4 plants (e.g. maize, sorghum, plus several important agricultural weeds), as the latter group is less responsive than the former to increased CO 2 levels in the atmosphere (Rosenzweig & Hillel 1998). Because the combined influence of many relevant factors must be assessed to determine the full response of agricultural crops to future climate conditions, computer simulations have been used extensively to project potential impacts on agriculture (e.g. Rosenberg 1993, Rosenzweig & Parry 1994). This study evaluates the impacts of potential climate change on crop production in the United States. It was conducted as part of the US National Assessment (www.nacc.usgcrp.gov, Reilly et al. 2001). Previous studies have generally projected small negative to mildly positive changes in US crop yields due to the impacts of climate change and elevated CO 2 (e.g. Easterling et al. 1993, Rosenzweig et al. 1995, Mearns et al. 1997, Rosenzweig & Hillel 1998). The study presented herein adds to previous work by analyzing a larger number of sites, and by simulating more crops than done previously. It includes simple adaptation techniques, such as changes in planting date and of cultivar type, which may be needed to optimize crop yields under a future climate. Additionally, this work employs new climate scenarios, which are considered to be more realistic than those previously available. These new scenarios, provided by the US National Assessment, consider the cooling effects of sulfuric aerosols on surface air temperature, in addition to the warming due to greenhouse gases. As a result, these scenarios project temperature increases that are smaller than previously forecast for the first half of this century. By the end of the century, however, the 'masking' effects of sulfuric aerosols become small compared to greenhouse forcing, and projected temperature increases become substantial, with a warming for the US projected to be in the range of 3−5°C (US National Assessment 2000). We note that crop simulation results should be regarded as defining at best upper limits to actual crop responses to climate change and elevated CO 2. Crop models typically assume that soil nutrients and micro-nutrients are not limiting, and that pests (insects, diseases, weeds) pose no threat to crop growth and yield. It can be expected that in the field some or all of these missing factors may limit, or in some
Climate change impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation
Climatic Change, 2011
This work was aimed at assessing the role of climate extremes in climate change impact assessment of typical winter and summer Mediterranean crops by using Regional Circulation Model (RCM) outputs as drivers of a modified version of the CropSyst model. More specifically, climate change effects were investigated on sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) development and yield under the A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The direct impact of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also included. The increase in both mean temperatures and temperature extremes under A2 and B2 scenarios (2071-2100) resulted in: a general advancement of the main phenological stages, shortening of the growing season and an increase in the frequency of heat stress during anthesis with respect to the baseline . The potential impact of these changes on crop yields was evaluated. It was found that winter and summer crops may possess a different fitting capacity to climate change. Sunflower, cultivated in the southern regions of the Mediterranean countries, was more prone to the direct effect of heat stress at anthesis and drought during its growing cycle. These factors resulted in severe yield reduction. In contrast, the lower frequency of heat stress and drought allowed the winter wheat M. Moriondo (B) CNR-IBIMET,
Effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on crop evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean area
Agricultural Water Management, 2010
In the assessment of plant response to the climate changes, the effects of CO 2 increase in the atmosphere and the subsequent rise of temperatures must be taken into account for their effects on crop physiology. In Mediterranean areas, a decrease of water availability and a more frequent occurrence of drought periods are expected. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of elevated CO 2 concentration and high temperature on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) in the Mediterranean areas. The Penman-Monteith equation was used to simulate the future changes of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by the recalibration of the canopy resistance parameter. Besides, crop coefficients (Kc) were adjusted according to the future climate trend. Then the modified empirical model (ETc = ETo × Kc) was applied providing an effective quantification of the climate change impact on water use of irrigated crops grown in Mediterranean areas. In the studied area, water use assessment was carried out for the period from 1961 to 2006 (measured data) and for a period from 2071 until 2100 (simulated data), showing a future climatic scenario. Water and irrigation use of crops will change as a function of climate changes, thermal needs of single crops and time of the year when they grow. Climate simulation model foresees the tendency for a significant increase of temperatures and a decrease of total year rainfall with a change of their distribution. The temperature increase and the concomitant expected rainfall decrease lead to a rise of year potential water deficit. About the autumn-spring crops, as wheat, a further increase of water deficit, is not expected. On the contrary, for spring-summer crops as tomato, a significant increase of water deficit and thus of irrigation need, is foreseen. Actually, for crops growing in that period of the year, the substantial rise of evapotranspiration demand cannot be compensated by crop cycle reduction and partial stomatal closure.
European Journal of Agronomy, 2014
Impact of climate change on crop growth, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching in winter wheat production in Germany was assessed using the agro-ecosystem model HERMES with a downscaled (WETTREG) climate change scenario A1B from the ECHAM5 global circulation model. Three alternative algorithms describing the impact of atmospheric CO 2 concentration on crop growth (a simple Farquhartype algorithm, a combined light-use efficiency -maximum assimilation approach and a simple scaling of the maximum assimilation rate) in combination with a Penman-Monteith approach which includes a simple stomata conduction model for evapotranspiration under changing CO 2 concentrations were compared within the framework of the HERMES model. The effect of differences in regional climate change, site conditions and different CO 2 algorithms on winter wheat yield, groundwater recharge and nitrogen leaching was assessed in 22 regional simulation case studies across Germany. Results indicate that the effects of climate change on wheat production will vary across Germany due to different regional expressions of climate change projection. Predicted yield changes between the reference period and a future period (2021-2050) range from −0.4 t ha −1 , −0.8 t ha −1 and −0.6 t ha −1 at sites in southern Germany to +0.8 t ha −1 , +0.6 t ha −1 and +0.8 t ha −1 at coastal regions for the three CO 2 algorithms, respectively. On average across all regions, a relative yield change of +0.9%, +3.0%, and +6.0%, respectively, was predicted for Germany. In contrast, a decrease of −11.6% was predicted without the consideration of a CO 2 effect. However, simulated yield changes differed even within regions as site conditions had a strong influence on crop growth. Particularly, groundwater-affected sites showed a lower vulnerability to increasing drought risk. Groundwater recharge was estimated to change correspondingly to changes in precipitation. The consideration of the CO 2 effect on transpiration in the model led to a prediction of higher rates of annual deep percolation (+16 mm on average across all sites), which was due to higher water-use efficiency of the crops. In contrast to groundwater recharge, simulated nitrogen leaching varied with the choice of the photosynthesis algorithm, predicting a slight reduction in most of the areas. The results underline the necessity of high-resolution data for model-based regional climate change impact assessment and development of adaptation measures.