The quantitative assessment of marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland, on the basis of AIS data (original) (raw)
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2017
This report describes a post-evaluation of GOFREP, the Mandatory Ship Reporting System in the Gulf of Finland, initiated by the Finnish Transport Agency in 2016. The objective of the evaluation was to show how the safety and fluency of maritime transport in the GOFREP area have developed since 2004 when the traffic separation scheme (TSS) was complemented by a mandatory ship reporting system and a radarbased monitoring system (SRS). This GOFREP traffic centre operation was assessed using a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approach in 2000-2002. The risk assessment results of that study (FSA2002) provide reference points to the current study.
Using AIS Data for Navigational Risk Assessment in Restricted Waters
Marine Technology and Sustainable Development
The Strait of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. It averages 150 ship passes a day and more than 50,000 ships annually. With a high concentration of vessels in a narrow path, multiple risk situations arise. Analyzing traffic density is made harder by cross traffic and an unknown traffic density at the Strait. In 2009, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), through a collaboration with Kobe University, successfully installed an Automatic Identification System (AIS) receiver. Through the AIS receiver, data of ship movements in the Strait of Malacca and Singapore could be recorded. A program was established by UTM to retrieve the data for the purpose of marine traffic collision risk analysis. In this research, a risk assessment method using AIS data is proposed for restricted waters such as for the Strait of Malacca and Singapore. The Risk Assessment Methodology requires the estimation of collision probabilities. The collision probability of the proposed method considers the Traffic Density, directions of traffic flow (with respect to a subject vessel), and probability of navigational failure. An area in the Strait of Singapore between the latitudes of 1°13'N and 1°07'N and Longitudes of 103°4'E and 103°56'E was selected to illustrate the method. By analysing the AIS data of traffic flow, the probabilities of collision for the area were determined. The effect of vessel parameters of length and speed on the risks of collision are also shown.
A cross-disciplinary approach to minimising the risks of maritime transport in the Gulf of Finland
World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 2009
A cross-disciplinary approach to minimising the risks of maritime transport 345 Abstract: The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland is predicted to rapidly increase in the near future, which increases the environmental risks both through direct environmental effects and by increasing the accident risk. This paper describes a multidisciplinary modelling approach, where, based on growth predictions, the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland in the year 2015 is modelled and the accident risk, the direct environmental effects and the risk of environmental accidents are evaluated. Finally, the effects of national and international legislation and other management actions are modelled, to produce advice and support for governmental decision makers. In the modelling work, Bayesian Networks (BNs) are applied. The approach produces unique information on the accident risks and their effects separately for each marine route used, which enables efficient local risk control actions to be taken by the decision makers to decrease the probability of accidents.
Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM) and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), 2012
The paper presents an Enhanced Navigation Support Information (ENSI) navigation service and estimates how its deployment in the Gulf of Finland would affect the number of ship collisions and groundings. ENSI navigation service transmits the ship’s electronic route plan to the Vessel Traffic Service and checks the route. In return, the service sends real-time, route-specific information to the ship such as data on the weather, ice and traffic conditions, the destination and possible disturbances on the route. The service has already been tested onboard Finnish tankers. The tanker safety services will be introduced by 2013 to all oil tankers operating in the Gulf of Finland and can then be expanded to other sea areas as well. According to the maritime traffic accident statistics from the Gulf of Finland, a sea area with increasing tanker traffic and sensitive nature, the primary cause of the majority of accidents has been human failure. Further, 40 % of the human failures had been related to the crew being uncertain of the position of the ship. In this study, the effects of implementing the ENSI service are incorporated into ship-ship collision and rounding causation probability models, and the models are applied to estimating the risk reducing effect for the estimated maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. The effects are modeled probabilistically by eliciting expert knowledge and experiences on testing the service. With the proposed Bayesian approach to modeling the problem, the model can be updated easily and uncertainties in the risk estimates reduced after more evidence is available later from longer and wider use of the service.
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2018
The Automatic Identification System (AIS), fitted on most ships today, is primarily used for real time ship monitoring. This paper illustrates how stored AIS data can be used to construct activity data that can be used to normalize accident statistics, to turn recorded numbers of accidents into accident rates. We show, by way of some examples, the potential in using AIS to construct different types of activity data, and discuss the advantage of combining measures based on different activity data when monitoring accident trends or trying to identify accident prone types of vessels. The analysis and discussion are based on a combination of the Norwegian database of maritime accidents and 6 years of recorded AIS data. The paper addresses methodological issues regarding the construction and use of these activity measures, demonstrates how they can provide new knowledge both for researchers and authorities and outlines some directions for further research.
Marine traffic risk modelling - An innovative approach and a case study
2011
This paper presents a model to analyse the risk of two common marine accidents: collision and grounding. Attention is focused on oil tankers since they pose the highest environmental risks. A case study in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland in ice-free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a formula for risk calculation that considers both the probability of an unwanted event and its consequences. The model can be decomposed into a block representation in which blocks for the probability of a collision, probability of a grounding event, and the consequences of an accident are linked. The probability of vessel colliding is assessed in terms of a minimum-distance-to-collision-based model. The model defines the collision zone using a mathematical ship motion model and considers the traffic flow to be a non-homogeneous process. Calculations are performed using data for traffic flows in the Gulf of Finland with particular attention being paid to the crossing of the channel used by scheduled ferries between Helsinki and Tallinn, and the main shipping channel. For the assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a gravitylike model, where a ship and navigational obstructions are perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion is modelled by a formulation inspired by gravitational force. The considered situation in this case is the movement of oil tankers in the approach channel to an oil terminal at Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern the costs of cleaning up an oil spill, based on the statistics of compensation levels claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund.
The assessment of the marine risks based on the formal safety assessment
Analele Universităţii "Dunărea de Jos" din Galaţi Fascicula XI Construcţii navale/ Annals of "Dunărea de Jos" of Galati Fascicle XI Shipbuilding
The paper seeks to present how the methodology, known as formal safety assessment (FSA), manages to identify and verify potential marine hazards by using risk analysis while providing ways to control these hazards in a cost-effective way. This methodology supposes a prior analysis of available data on maritime accidents. Risk assessment is based on the identification of the major causes that would lead to the occurrence of the accident, the probability of their occurrence, and the consequences resulting from the oc-currence of the event. Based on the consequences and the probability of the occurrence of the event, the level of risk is determined, depending on which the most effective control and risk reduction options are adopted. Risks are ranked based on ALARP acceptability criteria.
A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas
Accident; analysis and prevention, 2015
Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the ...
Accident probabilities in selected areas of the Gulf of Finland
2008
In this study, ship-ship collision and grounding probabilities are estimated for several crossing areas and narrow passages and for one grounding location in the Gulf of Finland. The estimates are calculated with AIS-data from July 2006. In addition, the collision probability for the crossing area between Helsinki and Tallinn is estimated for winter month March 2006. Estimates of crossing collision probabilities in 2015 are calculated and compared to the probabilities of 2006. For the crossing area between Helsinki and Tallinn, some expected oil spill sizes and their probabilities are also estimated. Collision probabilities are estimated as a product of geometrical and causation probabilities. The geometrical probabilities are described as the expected numbers of collision candidates, which are estimated with a model derived from literature. Causation probabilities for the collisions are estimated with a Bayesian network model. Grounding probabilities are estimated with three models and with causation probability values derived from literature. For the collision probability estimates in the crossing areas in 2015, the number of tankers heading to and from Russia is assumed to double compared to the year 2006, and for the number of cargo ships, coefficient of 1.5 is applied for the increase of traffic. Based on collision probabilities, oil leak probabilities and expected oil spill sizes are estimated with models and assumptions derived from literature. The results showed that collision probability is highest in the crossing area between Helsinki and Tallinn, where the average time period between accidents for summer traffic is estimated to be five years. In 2015 the average time period is estimated to be about three years. The average causation probability value for the crossing areas is estimated to be 2.7 • 10-4 and 1.0 • 10-5 for head-on encounters. Average time period between cargo oil spills in the crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn in 2006 is estimated to be 126 years, the average spill size being 3200 tons. Bunker oil spill of 330 ton average size is estimated to occur once in 54 years. For groundings, there is a lot of uncertainty related to many of the parameters of applied models, and none of the models estimates the probability of grounding in a sound way in the studied location. Keywords (and classification) marine traffic safety, collision probability, the Gulf of Finland, Bayesian networks Place Espoo, Finland Month-Year December-2008 Language English Number of pages 49 ISBN (printed) 978-951-22-9725-2 ISBN (electronic) 978-951-9726-9