Performance improvements for calculations of third party risk around airports (original) (raw)

Improving Aviation Safety through Modeling Accident Risk Assessment of Runway

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health , 2020

The exponential increase in aviation activity and air traffic in recent decades has raised several public health issues. One of the critical public health concerns is runway safety and the increasing demand for airports without accidents. In addition to threatening human lives, runway accidents are often associated with severe environmental and pollution consequences. In this study, a three-step approach is used for runway risk assessment considering probability, location, and consequences of accidents through advanced statistical methods. This study proposes novel models for the implementation of these three steps in Iran. Data on runway excursion accidents were collected from several countries with similar air accident rates. The proposed models empower engineers to advance an accurate assessment of the accident probability and safety assessment of airports. For in-service airports, it is possible to assess existing runways to remove obstacles close to runways if necessary. Also, the proposed models can be used for preliminary evaluations of developing existing airports and the construction of new runways.

Quantifying Metrics of External Airport Risk Exposure in Vicinity of Public Use, Nontowered Airports

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010

This paper presents research conducted in modeling specific exposure metrics of communities in the vicinity of public use, nontowered airports to aviation accidents that result in crash sites outside the immediate confines of a runway (termed external airport risk). Two exposure metrics are explored: a relative exposure (termed crash hazard), defined as the probability that a crash site will be located in a specific area if a crash were to occur at an airport, and an absolute exposure (termed crash risk), defined as the expected number of crashes per year within any defined area. Results of this research are presented as a series of choro-pleth maps that define boundaries as contours, within which these metrics exceed some defined threshold. A specific application of this research is presented within the context of a model airport.

The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part II. Accident location analysis and airport risk assessment case studies

Safety Science, 2009

This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.The second part of the paper presents the analysis of accident locations, including the plotting of Complementary Cumulative Probability Distributions for the relevant accident types. These were then used in conjunction with the improved accident frequency models to produce Complementary Cumulative Frequency Distributions that could be used to assess risks related to specific runways and determine Airport Safety Area (ASA) dimensions necessary to meet a quantitative target level of safety. The approach not only takes into account risk factors previously ignored by standard risk assessments but also considers the operational and traffic characteristics of the runway concerned. The use of the improved risk assessment technique and risk management strategy using ASAs was also demonstrated in two case studies based on New York LaGuardia Airport and Boca Raton Airport in Florida.