Improving the screening of colorectal neoplasia by a mathematical model. Retrospective study (original) (raw)
Introduction: Colonoscopy is a maximum accuracy diagnosis method for colorectal cancer and polyps, allowing multiple and guided biopsy of the observed lesions in the colonic lumen, but also the resection of the polyps. Aim: The purpose of this study was to perform an retrospective analyses of dates obtained from colonoscopy in order to create a mathematical model (risk calculator) which allows the selection of the patients with the highest probability to develop colorectal cancer. Matherial and methods: Dates from 2780 colonoscopies done in Timisoara County Clinical Emergency Hospital, during the period January 2005 to December 2008 were scrutinized. Results: 321 (11.5%) patients have had cancer. The classification of this group of 321 cancer cases by sex, has shown an increased incidence for men 193 (60.2 %) cases. The incidence of colorectal cancer increases with age. Based on our statistic results and other studies developed in the world, we developed a mathematical prediction scheme for the colorectal cancer risk. The mathematical prediction scheme considers: age, sex, weigh, height, personal history for polyps, and familial history of colorectal cancer, diet composition, physical activity and obesity. Conclusions: The development of this risk calculator for the colorectal cancer allows the selection of those particular subjects that have the highest probability for a colonic pathology, so that they would be the first to benefit from colonoscopy, without being necessary to use other screening methods.