Two ways of estimating the euro value of the illicit market for cannabis in France (original) (raw)
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Two school surveys measured the consumption of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis among French adolescents (7-12th grades), one in 1993 (N = 8435, 48.8% males), another in 1999 (N = 11,331, 47.9% males). Increase in all substance use and polydrug use was observed (total sample, by gender and by age). The increase was important (1) for lifetime consumption of cannabis, ''tobacco + cannabis,'' ''alcohol + tobacco'' and ''alcohol + tobacco + cannabis'' (OR = 3.0); (2) for regular consumption of cannabis and ''tobacco + cannabis'' (OR = 3.0); (3) among girls; (4) among youngsters aged 15 and more. In summary, these patterns of increase were quite different from those we expected for France, a wet and masculine culture.
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According to a frequently voiced opinion drug seizures represent 5 to 10 percent of drug traded in the market. In this article we estimate the size of the Finnish cannabis trade by calculating the number of users and the amount of the substance consumed in a year. We divide the subjects into five different groups based on the annual frequency of use: experimenters (1-4 days), modest occasional users (5-12 days), frequent occasional users (13-51 days), weekly users (52-181 days) and, finally, daily users (182-365 days). The highest number of users was found in the group of modest occasional users, while daily users were accountable for the greatest share of total consumption. According to our calculations the amount of seized cannabis corresponds to 10-23 percent of the total amount on the market which means that authorities operate more effectively than what is generally believed.
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First, this paper estimates the dimensions of the market for cannabis in Spain using data on the extent of consumption and the main patterns of use of consumers. Then the paper reviews the hypothetical production and distribution costs of these drugs in different production regimes under different legal conditions. The review shows that current prices of cannabis in the illegal market could be notably reduced if production and distribution of cannabis were decriminalized and even more if they were performed by legal enterprises. Thirdly, we examine the relationship between prices and consumption levels by analysing the price elasticity of demand. A fall in the prices of cannabis products will likely result in an increase in the number of users and in the total amount consumed. Lastly we consider several alternatives for the taxation of cannabis derivatives to counteract the likely fall in prices, and their pros and cons.
Filling in the blanks. An estimation of illicit cannabis growers' profits in Belgium
Background: As a result of increased pressure on cannabis cultivation in The Netherlands, the number of confiscated indoor cannabis plantations in Belgium is rising. Although increases are reported for all plantations sizes, half of the seized plantations contain less than 50 plants. In this study, factors and variables that influence costs and benefits of indoor cannabis cultivation are investigated as well as how these costs and benefits vary between different cannabis grower types. Methods: Real-situation data of four growers were used to perform financial analyses. Costs included fixed and variable material costs, as well as opportunity costs. Gross revenue per grow cycle was calculated based on most recent forensic findings for illicit Belgian cannabis plantations and was adjusted for the risk of getting caught. Finally, gross revenues and return on costs (ROC) were calculated over 1 year (4 cycles). Findings: Financial analysis shows that in all cases gross revenues as well as ROC are considerable, even after a single growth cycle. Highest profitability was found for large-scale (600 plants, ROC = 6.8) and mid-scale plantations (150 plants, ROC = 6.0). However, industrial plantations (23,000 plants, ROC = 1.4) and micro-scale plantations (5 plants, ROC = 2.8) are also highly remunerative. Shift of police focus away from micro-scale growers, least likely to be involved in criminal gangs, to large-scale and industrial scale plantations would influence costs as a result of changing risks of getting caught. However, sensitivity analysis shows that this does not significantly influence the conclusions on profitability of different types of indoor cannabis growers. Conclusion: Seizure and confiscation of profits are important elements in the integral and integrated policy approach required for tackling illicit indoor cannabis plantations. The large return of costs evidenced in the present study, underpin the policy relevance of confiscating those illicit profits as part of enforcement.
The Economics of Marijuana Consumption
The Demand for Alcohol, Tobacco and Marijuana, 2017
In economic terms, marijuana is an important, yet little understood and controversial co=odity. According to our estimates, spending on marijuana in Australia is about twice that on wine. But this co=odity, which has been used by about one-third of the population, generates no tax revenue. This paper explores economic aspects by marijuana consumption, concentrating on the estimation of the amount consumed, its price sensitivity, its interaction with alcohol and the effects of any legalisation. Key findings are (i) the price elasticity of demand for marijuana is about-1/2; (ii) alcohol and marijuana seem to be substitutes, with cross-price elasticities ranging from .1 (for beer with respect to the price of marijuana) to .5 (spirits/marijuana); (iii) according to a survey at UW A, about 50 percent of first-year students have used marijuana; and (iv) legalisation would increase marijuana consumption by about 13 percent, with most of that accounted for by daily and weekly users, and alcohol consumption would fall. * We would like to thank Juraj Ririe, Yew Liang Lee, Chee Ming Mak, Paul Miller, Anthony Phillips, and especially Barbara Moyser for their help with the survey reported in this paper. We would also like to acknowledge the help of Yihui Lan,