On the sustainability of the current account deficits: Evidence from Turkey, MSc, Essex University, 2009. (original) (raw)
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The current account deficit, as a frequently disputable phenomenon of Turkish economy, is considered as one of the main causes of the crises in the economy. The current account deficit is one of the important problems in some developed countries as well as in developing countries. Indeed, the long-term sustainability of such an incident which results from expenditures in excess of the income or investments in excess of the savings in a country is subject to discussion. Despite its experience of a rapid process of change following the decisions of 24 th January 1980, the Turkish banking sector has been severely damaged during the crisis of November 2000 and February 2001 in particular. The global financial crisis of the year 2008, like the rest of the world, has also increased uncertainties in Turkey along with a reduction in demand, a decline in production which, in turn, led to the emergence of negative impacts on the real and financial sectors. The aim of this study is to examine the sustainability of current account dcflcit in Turkey between the years 1989 and 2014. The technical analysis conducted with the econometric model is also supported by a variety of data analysis.
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Purpose: This study aims to examine the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey for the quarterly data between 2003 and 2018. Besides, some policy implications are made to ensure the sustainability of the current account deficit in Turkey's economy. Design/methodology/approach: The dynamics related to the sustainability of the current account deficit is analysed within the framework of the "intertemporal budget constraint approach" developed by Husted (1992). The long-term dynamics are empirically investigated using the Johansen cointegration test. Econometric analysis is also expanded within the framework of the Vector Error Model to reveal the short-term dynamics. Findings: The results of Johansen cointegration analysis suggest that current account income and expenses are integrated with the cointegrating coefficient less than 1, implying that Turkey has a weak form of current account deficit sustainability. Findings of the Vector Error Correction mod...
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Evaluation of Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in Turkey
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Sustainability of the current account deficits in Turkey was evaluated according to the macroeconomic fundamentals together with discussing the composition of current account deficit and the way of financing to have insights about the future path of current account balance. Problem about current account deficits were considered as structural since they were caused by foreign trade deficits largely as an outcome of dependence of production and exports on imported intermediate goods. Furthermore, there were negative developments about the way of financing in last years that share of debt instruments in financing has increased against Foreign Direct Investment. As a result, it has seen that Turkey would continue to have current account deficits in the next years and sustainability of these deficits has become increasingly difficult.
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In this paper, we analyze the Turkish current account between 1992 and 2004 within an intertemporal benchmark model. Increasingly larger current account deficits in the Turkish economy have caused a great level of discussion of the current account but it has mainly focused on the real exchange rate and short-term international competitiveness. However, changes in the fundamentals of the Turkish economy warrant a longer term approach in the analysis. This paper computes the optimal consumption smoothing current account using the intertemporal benchmark model (IBM) and tests for intertemporal solvency of the current account. We find consumption tilting dynamics are in effect. As expected of borrowing developing countries, Turkey tilts consumption to the present. We find support for one of the implications of the IBM, that the current account Granger-causes future changes in national cash flow as implied by the intertemporal benchmark model. However, we also find that the actual consumption smoothing current account is considerably more volatile than the optimal consumption smoothing current account suggesting that speculative forces have driven capital movements during the sample period. From the trends in data and the model and testable implications we believe that although Turkey breached the intertemporal solvency condition in the 1990s, this is not true for Turkey in the period following the 2001 crisis. Therefore, we conclude that changed fundamentals in Turkey have made the high current account deficits sustainable.