Kamil Frymark, Artur Ciechanowicz: Dreaming of normalisation. Germany vs. Russia. OSW Commentary, No 225, 07.11.2016 (original) (raw)

Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and its propaganda actions targeting Germany have resulted in an increase in German society's distrust of Russia and to more assertive political reactions. They have also translated into unprecedented, increased support for eastern allies within NATO. Posing as an architect of the peace process in Ukraine, Germany has indirectly become a hostage to the success of this process (or the lack of it). However, the involvement of both Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier in working out and implementing the Minsk agreement has not brought the results Berlin had expected. This has amplified Germany's disappointment with both Russia and Ukraine. However, withdrawing from this involvement would scarcely be imaginable due to the significant political capital invested in these actions so far. Hence the attempts to save face and the efforts to ensure the implementation of the agreement, as well as the temptation to devise its subsequent variants (which would be increasingly less favourable for Ukraine). The German debate on the sanctions imposed on Russia is becoming an element of domestic politics as shaped by the campaign preceding the autumn 2017 elections to the Bundestag. Unlike Chancellor Merkel, in this campaign the SPD is trying to play the role of " a party of peace " seeking rapprochement with Russia, regardless of the fiasco of the present version of Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik. The intention to prevent conflict escalation should sanctions be tightened and the related attempt to force the implementation of the Minsk agreement result from both the lack of consensus over this matter within the ruling coalition and the conviction that it is necessary to maintain dialogue with Russia and simultaneously develop NATO's defence capability.