In Search of El Niño on the New Beagle (original) (raw)
Related papers
International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Studies, 2023
As of October 12, 2023 the Climate Prediction Center [1] says there is an 80% El Nino for March 2024 to May 2024. However, as of October 21, 2023, there is predicted very little rain in Berkeley, California according to www.weather.com. El Nino comes from the fact that it starts around Christmas (El Nino = "The Boy"). In this short paper, the author will size up the phenomenon and try to say why it is hard to predict (onset of rain). For one thing, weather cannot be predicted more than ten days in advance, even though the most advanced data collection and supercomputers are employed.
2003
Encontré que El Niño coincidió con que los bobos cafés de San Jorge dejaran de anidar y se ausentaran de la isla, al tiempo que llegaban varios miles de bobos de patas azules. Las condiciones de El Niño coincidieron con un incremento en el número de individuos anidantes de gallitos menor, elegante y máximo y de rayadores, en Montague. Ni los patos buzo orejones en San Jorge, ni los gallitos menores en La Purinera, ni las garzas níveas, perros de agua , gaviotas risueñas, ni gallitos picogrueso, en Montague, parecen haber sido afectados. Los lobos marinos en San Jorge duplicaron aproximadamente su población, sin que esto repercutiera sobre la producción de crías. La Niña coincidió con un regreso de las poblaciones de las especies anteriores a las condiciones previas a El Niño. Además, durante 1999 en San Jorge anidaron gaviotas plomas y patos buzo de Brandt. Esa gaviota había dejado de anidar hacía mucho tiempo en San Jorge, y el pato buzo nunca se había registrado anidando ahí. Es prematuro concluir si estos registros fueron resultado de La Niña o de fenómenos en otra escala.
East Coast fever and multiple El Niño Southern oscillation ranks
Veterinary Parasitology
East Coast fever (ECF), a tick-borne disease of cattle, is a major constraint to livestock development in Africa in general and southern Zambia in particular. Understanding the transmission patterns of this disease complex is very difficult as shown by previous studies in southern and eastern Zambia due to the interplay of risk factors. In this long-term study, we investigated whether global weather changes had any influence on disease transmission in traditionally kept cattle in southern Zambia. The results from this study show a strong association between increased Theileria parva contacts in cattle and the presence of El Niño, clearly linking a simple climatic index to disease outbreaks. We therefore propose that in southern Zambia, the simple and readily available multiple El Niño Southern oscillation index (MEI) ranks be used in planning ECF control programmes and early warning.
Burnt daga structures in Iron Age villages serve as proxies for severe drought on the plateau of southern Africa. The distribution of burnt daga remains in two other rainfall areas, KwaZulu-Natal and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi, establishes a sequence of simultaneous burnings that parallels the severe droughts recorded for the interior plateau. These widespread correspondences suggest a common cause. Another correspondence with natural proxy data from South America indicates that intensive El Niño events most likely caused the droughts.
Final El Nino ready Nations and DRR April 2017.pdf
This report and the research for the 15 country studies on which it is based is dedicated to Kelly Sponberg, a constant supporter of efforts to improve societal understanding of the El Niño Southern Oscillation's (ENSO's) phenomenon, and climate in general for the purposes of disaster risk reduction and enhancing societal resilience through new technologies, techniques and approaches to early warning systems.
Coastal El Niño 2017 or Simply: The Carnival Coastal Warming Event?
MOJ Ecology & Environmental Sciences, 2017
During February, strong north-easterly trade winds from the Caribbean Sea blew through the Panama isthmus and pushed surface waters (SST up to 29.8°C) southward. This condition, together with the abrupt weakening of south-easterly trade winds, produced a rapid-short lived but intense warming of the surface waters of Niño 1+2 region from February to March 2017. The sudden warming provoked anomalies up to +2.6°C (15 march): i.e. over 29.1°C; at the same time in 3.4, the anomaly was-0.1°C. The ZCIT moved quickly southward from 4-5°N to 8°S in a few days and remained there for 4-6 weeks. The average rain (Jan-Apr; 1980-2010) on Ecuador coast (6 stations) was 4391.5 mm, whilst in 2017, it was 4312.3 mm. The SOI was on average +0.22 (Jan-May 2017) and 0.9 in March. The thermo cline did not deepen below 30 m; during El Niño, it is deeper than 100 m. Sea level anomalies were static around 5 cm, but during El Niño 1997-98, they were over 40 cm. Fisheries were not evidently affected, in fact the Peruvian fishing sector grew >82% in the first semester, mainly due to the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) captures. The Ecuadorian fleet catches of skip jack (Katsuwonus pelamis), yellow fin (Thunnus albacares) and big eye (Thunnus obesus) were 17.5, 8.3 and 50.6 % higher than at the same period in 2016. By mid-May 2017, anomalies in 1+2 fell to 0.4°C and there was a quick cooling down process. Calling this event as "El Niño Costero" is incorrect and brings erroneous and confusing response from society. Hereafter, analogously to the term "El Niño", it is proposed to call this phenomenon "Carnival Coastal Warming" or simply "El Carnaval", as the carnival festivities are in February-March; or even simpler: Rapid Coastal Warming event.