CAR OWNERSHIP MODELS IN IRAN: A REVIEW OF METHODS AND DETERMINANTS (original) (raw)
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Urban Science
There are significant deviations in travel mode choice drivers between developed and developing countries. This study investigates the determinants of car ownership and public transit ridership in Iran. Using survey data from 800 respondents, the determinants of travel behaviour of Kerman residents were investigated, based on gender, age, household size, car ownership, frequency of public transport ridership, number of working days per week, number of shopping activities in the neighbourhood per week, number of entertainment activities in the neighbourhood per week, and number of shopping activities in the city. Two multivariate models were estimated using the OLS and WLS methods. Our findings suggested that owning a car tends to increase as age, household size, number of working days and number of shopping days in the city decreases. An increase in the number of entertainment days in the neighbourhood raised the probability of car ownership while shopping in the neighbourhood did n...
The growth rate of vehicle ownership in Baghdad has increased since 2003. For the analysis of adverse effects of car ownership on transport mode choice, the comparison between the patterns of mode choices in the past with current situation was studied. The transport mode choice was calibrated using a Logit model; it combines different characteristics of the alternatives and individual socioeconomic variables in a meaningful way to calculate a utility value. The model requires data of zones, choice data of travelling mode and the selected mode attributes. Trans Cad was used to calibrate the utility functions, MNL analysis in Trans Cad is used to develop the model. The travelling modes used in the study area are private mode (car) and public mode (bus). The level of service variables (In-vehicle travel time, cost) and socioeconomic variables (auto ownership, income) are used. After calibration of the split model, the process of validation is achieved by comparing field measured modal split of traffic volumes with estimated split results of the model. The results show that a higher share of public transport in the past, while in 2014, it appears that the share of auto is higher. Through these results, it finds that public transport must be given the utmost importance in order to provide a sustainable environment in the region.
The Influence Change of Private Car Ownership on Patterns of Mode Choice in Baghdad city
IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering
The growth rate of vehicle ownership in Baghdad has increased since 2003. For the analysis of adverse effects of car ownership on transport mode choice, the comparison between the patterns of mode choices in the past with current situation was studied. The transport mode choice was calibrated using a Logit model; it combines different characteristics of the alternatives and individual socioeconomic variables in a meaningful way to calculate a utility value. The model requires data of zones, choice data of travelling mode and the selected mode attributes. Trans Cad was used to calibrate the utility functions, MNL analysis in Trans Cad is used to develop the model. The travelling modes used in the study area are private mode (car) and public mode (bus). The level of service variables (In-vehicle travel time, cost) and socioeconomic variables (auto ownership, income) are used. After calibration of the split model, the process of validation is achieved by comparing field measured modal split of traffic volumes with estimated split results of the model. The results show that a higher share of public transport in the past, while in 2014, it appears that the share of auto is higher. Through these results, it finds that public transport must be given the utmost importance in order to provide a sustainable environment in the region.
Comparison of vehicle-ownership models
Transportation Research Record: Journal …, 2008
Empirical studies on household car ownership have used two types of discrete choice modelling structures, the ordered and the unordered. In ordered structures such as the ordered logit and ordered probit models, the choice of the number of household-vehicles arises from a uni-dimensional latent index that reflects the propensity of a household to own vehicles. Unordered response models, on the other hand, are based on the random utility maximization principle, under which a household associates a utility value across different car ownership levels and chooses the one with the maximum utility. The multinomial logit and probit models are representatives of the unordered response models, but only the multinomial logit has been used extensively because of its simple structure and low computational requirements. Following comparative study between the multinomial logit and ordered logit models, consensus among researchers is still lacking and empirical studies have reported car ownership model based on the multinomial logit, ordered logit as well as ordered probit models. It is apparent that there is still an open question to be addressed: Which of the aforementioned models would reflect better households' car ownership choices? This paper provides an empirical comparison of multinomial logit, ordered logit and ordered probit car ownership models by introducing a number of formal evaluation measures and using three datasets; the 2001 National Household Travel Survey for the metropolitan area of Baltimore, the 2005 Dutch National Travel Survey and the 2000 Osaka Metropolitan Person Trip Data. Results show that the multinomial logit model is the one to be selected for modelling the level of household car ownership over ordered logit and ordered probit.
MODELING CAR OWNERSHIP IN EGYPT
Car ownership influences the city structure, public investment priorities including the roadway infrastructure, and the patterns of daily life. The study of car ownership, as a classic topic in the area of transportation, is assistive to the transportation officials in the road system planning, policies, and design. In the developed countries, car ownership study has already been advanced to the household level and currently is being refined to the daily usage level through micro simulation. However, in the developing countries, due to the lack of the disaggregated data, the car ownership study is at the aggregated level. In this study, the car ownership in Egypt is modeled by using three different modeling types, which are the log-linear, quasi-logistic, and Gompertz curves. In addition, several scenarios are developed in order to make forecasts until 2024. MODÉLISATION POSSESSION D'UNE VOITURE EN EGYPTE * RÉSUMÉ Le taux de motorisation influence la structure de la ville, les priorités d'investissement public, y compris l'infrastructure routière, et les motifs de la vie quotidienne. L'étude de la possession d'une voiture, comme un sujet classique dans le domaine des transports, est Aides aux responsables des transports dans la planification du réseau routier, des politiques, et de la conception. Dans les pays développés, l'étude de motorisation a déjà été avancée au niveau des ménages et est actuellement en cours de perfectionnement au niveau de l'utilisation quotidienne par micro simulation. Cependant, dans les pays en développement, en raison de l'absence de données désagrégées, l'étude de possession d'une voiture est au niveau agrégé. Dans cette étude, la possession d'une voiture en Egypte est modélisée en utilisant trois types de modélisation différente, qui sont le log-linéaire, quasi-logistique, et les courbes de Gompertz. En outre, plusieurs scénarios sont développés afin de faire des prévisions jusqu'en 2024. MOTS CLÉS: modèle log-linéaire, quasi-logistique du modèle, les courbes de Gompertz, possession d'une voiture, pays à faible revenu.
Study on the Mathematical Modelling of the Car Ownership in Romanian Cities
ANNALS OF THE ORADEA UNIVERSITY. Fascicle of Management and Technological Engineering., 2010
Car ownership growth has been significant in recent years in Romania, and with the recent accession to the EU, is predicted to continue. Therefore, a major consideration of this study is to accurately predict car ownership, so that sufficient measures can be put in place to mitigate the adverse impacts on society.
Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada
2008
This paper examines the influence of family structure, socio-economic characteristics and accessibility at the place of residence on the number of cars owned by a household. Special attention is given to the neighbourhood characteristics, which are quantified by introducing several measures of neighbourhood proximity to out-of-home amenities and land-use derived from fine-grained spatial data with the help of GIS.
Socio-Demographic and Built Environment Determinants of Car Use among Older Adults in Iran
Internationally, an age-friendly built environment, including safe, affordable, and convenient transportation, has been identified as crucial in enhancing the quality of life for increasingly large numbers of elderly people. This study presents data on the urban travel and mobility patterns of older adults in Shiraz, Irana country where the population is ageing faster than the average of western societies. The relationship between car use and socio-demographic and built environment variables is investigated through Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression models. These models show that the main determinants of car use among older adults are: employment status; household size; car ownership rate; trip purpose; property prices; and mixed land-uses. Also, the study reveals that car dependency is significant and more pronounced among wealthier individuals, who tend to be clustered in the northern section of the city. The population density and road network design characteristics do not affect car use among older adults, while a mix of land-uses tends to attenuate car dependency. Gender gaps in car use are much wider than in the West, and some level of spatial mismatch between travel needs and car access is observed in the southern section of the city. Clearly, Iranian cities must move away from the current car-centric development model.