THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY (original) (raw)
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The effect of foreign trade on economic growth_The case of Turkey.pdf
Turkish Economic Review, 2018
In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and economic growth in Turkey are analysed, using quarterly data from 1987 to 2017. In order to examine these relationships a number of econometric methods are applied, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test based on the Error Correction Model. The results show that all variables are stationary in the first difference. Furthermore, the validity of long-run relationships among variables is found by the Johansen cointegration test. Since the cointegration is observed between series, the Error Correction Model is used to determine the causality. The empirical findings from the causality test suggest that there is short-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and import in Turkey. On the other hand, according to the Error Correction Model, there is a long run unidirectional causality from economic growth to export in Turkey.
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Purpose- The effect of economic growth on exports in Turkey and the direction of the relationship have been determined. The data were obtained from the World Bank data system and TUIK (Turkish Official Statistics Institute, 2021 data were obtained from here) and annual data for the period 1961-2021 were used. Analyzed with Auto Regressive Distrubuted Lag Models (ARDL) bounds test approach and Toda&Yamamoto Causality Test. Methodology- The data set was created using annual data and analyzed in this way. Then Vector Autoregressive Model-VAR was created. Then, Toma&Yamamoto causality test and ARDL were applied. In addition, Breusch-Godfrey Autocorrelation LM Test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity Test, unit root test, normality test and CUSUM tests were applied to verify the accuracy of the output. Findings- It is concluded that there is a long-term relationship between the ARDL Bounds test approach and the variables where economic growth affects exports negatively in the long ...
The study aims to analyze the determinants of foreign trade through the variables of national income, foreign direct investment, real exchange rates, and export and import prices for the period of 1987-2011. The export and import demand functions in Turkey are estimated using unit root test, co-integration analysis, and Granger causality tests. There is one-way short term Granger causal link from foreign income, real exchange rate and export price towards export in the export model. This model is also characterized by the fact that foreign income, foreign direct investment, real exchange rates and export price are the Granger causes of export in the long-run. In the import model, on the other hand, there is Granger causality link from Turkey's real GDP, foreign direct investment, and real exchange rate towards import in the long-run. In addition, single way causality links have been encountered from foreign direct investment, real exchange rate and import price to import.