Political Stability and the Dominant Image of Society (original) (raw)

The Unavoidable Instability of Politics

Brazilian Political Science Review (BPSR), 2013

N othing can be taken for granted, says a popular dictum phrased in different languages and manners. Such obvious statement, however, seems to have been forgotten by both professionals and researchers of politics. Whereas professionals have been surprised by social upheavals in societies where recent material progress seemed to have had successfully accommodated contentious political grievances-as in Brazil and Turkey-, researchers are have been caught by a wave that prioritizes hypothesis-testing over concept-and theory-building. Yet if nobody can avoid the political and the inherent conflictive nature of social life, how can any politician or bureaucrat feel safe in the ironcage of institutions? In such a context, should political and other social scientists not revisit traditional concepts before putting forward large-N observational and experimental research designs? In Power and Progress: International Politics in Transition, Jack Snyder reminds us of those sins as he flags out the very unstable nature of politics in both domestic and international levels. In turn, that nature posits a serious challenge to strictly institutionalist standpoints and approaches in Comparative Politics and International Relations, as well as their methodological correlates. Within 12 chapters-most of them already published as articles in the last two decades and co-authored with names such as Robert Jervis and Edward Mansfield-, Snyder defies in theoretical and empirical terms the validity of a type of research that seek of unfold the "effects of causes" without paying much attention to the "causes of effects", to use a conceptual distinction recently advanced by two renowned methodologists, Gary Goertz and James Mahoney (2012). Also, Snyder and his co-authors master the difficult yet very much needed task to bridge the gap between the literature in Comparative Politics and International Relations-a crucial step for political scientists

Political Stability as a Phenomenon and a Potential

Athenaeum. Polish Political Science Studies, 2021

Political stability is a key category in general political theory and in the analysis of political systems. The correct determination of the semantic scope of this concept and its proper operationalization seem to be of fundamental importance for both theoretical and empirical scientific considerations. The text draws attention to two basic variants of stability (invariability and flexibility) and two basic aspects of the concept of stability (phenomenon and potential). The conceptual ordering of the issue of political stability, supported by a literature review on the subject, aims to provide a basis for formulating the most adequate approach to the study of political systems stability. The main purpose of the text is therefore to operationalize the concept of stability and, moreover, to indicate the possible research consequences of adopting the proposed perspective

Revolution and democracy in the twenty first century // Cross-Cultural Research 2024

Cross-Cultural Research, 2024

In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among full autocracies. In addition, full autocracies moving towards democracy and transitioning to partial autocratic rule are at increased risk of revolutionary destabilization, which explains why the current global spread of democracy is associated with an upswing rather than a downswing in revolutionary activity. Finally, strong forms of revolutionary destabilization are quite possible in cases of deconsolidation of consolidated democracy, which additionally suggests that the era of revolutions will not end in the foreseeable future. Thus, we propose a general theory on the effect of regime type on revolutionary destabilization and address inconsistencies among various studies regarding the impact of the regime on revolutionary instability. The conducted research also allows us to contribute to the answer to the question posed by many researchers of revolutions at the end of the last century – will the era of revolutions end with the global spread of democracy? Our analysis suggests that if this happens someday, it will not be in any foreseeable future.

Revolts and Political Regimes: The Enduring Perils to Established Political Orders

European Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, 2024

This paper delves into the profound impact of societal uprisings, fueled by a complex interplay of politico-economic factors, in reshaping or toppling political regimes. It becomes apparent that violent opposition to a regime often arises from the calculated maneuvers of dominant political elites, who adeptly wield various tools to stoke a fervent desire for political liberty among the populace, challenging the existing order. This phenomenon was starkly evident during the oppressive reign of Siyad Barre, where segments of Somali society were mobilized from grassroots levels, driven by a collective yearning to break free from the shackles of tyranny and repression. The revolts of that era shared a common goal: either dismantling the dictatorial machinery or compelling its abandonment, while simultaneously advocating for the establishment of a democratic system that would empower individuals to exercise their constitutionally guaranteed rights. However, even in the absence of overt repression, revolts against entrenched systems often persist, driven by underlying political agendas that could potentially be pursued through non-violent means. This paper further examines a recent uprising in Somaliland, drawing parallels from historical revolts witnessed during Siyad Barre's regime, where power consolidation and fear tactics were employed to maintain control. These uprisings typically unfold under the orchestration of political elites who have played pivotal roles in Somalia's political landscape since the early 1980s. During this period, certain Somali politicians defected from the Siyad government, rallying their constituents for armed resistance against dictatorial rule. While the circumstances surrounding these revolts may vary, they share commonalities that warrant thorough exploration. However, it's essential to note the diverse motives driving each uprising. Some seek to completely withdraw from the existing system, while others aim to force reforms or remove those in power altogether.

Three Concepts of Political Stability

The dominant approach to state legitimacy in political philosophy, public reason liberalism, includes an ideal of political stability where justified institutions reach a kind of self-enforcing equilibrium. Citizens of a stable society generally recognize that all, or nearly all, people have sufficient reason to comply with directives issued by publicly justified institutions, such that unilateral deviations from those directives leads to a worse outcome from the defector’s point of view. In this essay, I contend that a more sophisticated model of social stability, specifically an agent-based model, yields a richer and more accurate ideal of political stability than what has appeared in the literature thus far. In particular, an agent-based model helps us to distinguish between three concepts of political stability—durability, balance, and immunity. A well-ordered society is one that possesses a high degree of social trust and cooperative behavior among its citizens (durability) with low short-run variability (balance). A well-ordered society also resists destabilization caused by non-compliant agents in or entering the system (immunity). Previous work on political stability within public reason liberalism has depended upon a single, coherent notion of stability. My tripartite distinction weakens attempts to elaborate, defend, and refute public reason views that employ a single, coherent notion of stability.

Polity II: Political structures and regime change, 1800-1986

1990

SUMMARY: Carried out under the auspices of the Data Development for International Research (DDIR) project, POLITY II was designed to develop longitudinal indicators of political structures and regime change. This file encompasses most member states of the international system from 1800 to 1986, and consists of annual codings of regimes' structural characteristics, institutional changes, and the directionality of changes on underlying dimensions of democracy, autocracy, and power concentration. CLASS IV

Elections, Type of Regime and Risks of Revolutionary Destabilization

2024

This analysis finds that the impact of elections on risks of armed insurrections is not statistically significant, whereas unarmed uprisings/nonviolent revolutions are more likely to occur in the election year. It is also shown that the influence of elections on unarmed revolutionary destabilization had tended to grow with time. The election year became a significant factor of nonviolent revolutionary destabilization only after the end of the Cold War, and the impact of elections on the probability of unarmed 99 ELECTIONS AND REVOLUTIONARY DESTABILAZATION Comparative Sociology 23 (2024) 98-126 revolutions has become particularly strong in this century (when elections in the given year increase the probability of an unarmed uprising more than three times). At the same time, holding elections primarily increases the risks of revolutionary destabilization in intermediate regimes (anocracies). But even among anocracies, open anocracies/partial democracies stand out, as here elections increase the probability of unarmed uprisings in an especially dramatic way.

doi:10.1017/S0007123413000264 1Coups and Democracy

2016

3This study uses new data on coups d’état and elections to document a striking development: whereas 4the vast majority of successful coups before 1991 installed durable rules, the majority of coups after 5that have been followed by competitive elections. The article argues that after the Cold War, 6international pressure influenced the consequences of coups. In the post-Cold War era, countries that 7were most dependent on Western aid were the first to embrace competitive elections after their coups. 8This theory also helps explain the pronounced decline in the number of coups since 1991. While the 9coup d’état has been (and still is) the single most important factor leading to the downfall of 10democratic governments, these findings indicate that the new generation of coups has been far less 11harmful for democracy than their historical predecessors. 12 13‘I came in on a tank, and only a tank will evict me.’