TCC Training Seminar on Primary Modes of Global Climate Variability and Regional Climate Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency (original) (raw)
Related papers
EARTH SCIENCES, 2019
It has been discovered that there appears to exist a close relationship between relative differences in total solar irradiance and the atmospheric temperature, at a pressure of 1 bar, on all three terrestrial-type bodies which possess thick atmospheres. The apparent relationship is through the quaternary root of total solar irradiance at 1 bar, and applies to the planetary bodies Venus, Earth and Titan. The relationship is so close that the average surface atmospheric temperature of Earth can be easily calculated to within 1 Kelvin (0.5%) of the correct figure by the knowledge of only two numbers, neither of which are related to the Earth's atmosphere. These are; the atmospheric temperature in the Venusian atmosphere at 1 bar, and the top-of-atmosphere solar insolation of the two planets. A similar relationship in atmospheric temperatures is found to exist, through insolation differences alone, between the atmospheric temperatures at 1 bar of the planetary bodies Titan and Earth, and Venus and Titan. This relationship exists despite the widely varying atmospheric greenhouse gas content, and the widely varying albedos of the three planetary bodies. This result is consistent with previous research with regards to atmospheric temperatures and their relationship to the molar mass version of the ideal gas law, in that this work also points to a climate sensitivity to CO 2-or to any other 'greenhouse' gas-which is close to or at zero. It is more confirmation that the main determinants of atmospheric temperatures in the regions of terrestrial planetary atmospheres which are >0.1 bar, is overwhelmingly the result of two factors; solar insolation and atmospheric pressure. There appears to be no measurable, or what may be better termed 'anomalous' warming input from a class of gases which have up until the present, been incorrectly labelled as 'greenhouse' gases.
Climate variability and relationships between top-of-atmosphere radiation and temperatures on Earth
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015
The monthly global and regional variability in Earth's radiation balance is examined using correlations and regressions between atmospheric temperatures and water vapor with top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave (OLR), absorbed shortwave (ASR) and net radiation (RT=ASR-OLR). Anomalous global mean monthly variability in the net radiation is surprisingly large, often more than ±1 W m -2 , and arises mainly from clouds and transient weather systems. Relationships are strongest and positive between OLR and temperatures, especially over land for tropospheric temperatures, except in the deep tropics where high sea surface temperatures are associated with deep convection, high cold cloud-tops and thus less OLR but also less ASR. Tropospheric verticallyaveraged temperatures (surface-150 hPa) are thus negatively correlated globally with net radiation (-0.57), implying 2.18±0.10 W m -2 extra net radiation to space for 1°C increase in temperature. Water vapor is positively correlated with tropospheric temperatures and thus also negatively correlated with net radiation, however when the temperature dependency of water vapor is statistically removed, a significant positive feedback between water vapor and net radiation is revealed globally with 0.87 W m -2 less OLR to space per mm of total-column water vapor. The regression coefficient between global RT and tropospheric temperature becomes -2.98 W m -2 K -1 if water vapor effects are removed, slightly less than expected from black-body radiation (-3.2 W m -2 K -1 ), suggesting a positive feedback from clouds and other processes. Robust regional structures provide additional physical insights. The observational record is too short, weather noise too great and forcing too small to make reliable estimates of climate sensitivity.
Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2009
The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: t 1 ¼ 0:470:1 yr and t 2 ¼ 872 yr or t 2 ¼ 1273 yr. Since 1980 the solar contribution to climate change is uncertain because of the severe uncertainty of the total solar irradiance satellite composites. The sun may have caused from a slight cooling, if PMOD TSI composite is used, to a significant warming (up to 65% of the total observed warming) if ACRIM, or other TSI composites are used. The model is calibrated only on the empirical 11-year solar cycle signature on the instrumental global surface temperature since 1980. The model reconstructs the major temperature patterns covering 400 years of solar induced temperature changes, as shown in recent paleoclimate global temperature records.
The annual variation of surface temperatures over the world
1992
Examples from individual stations are chosen to illustrate some of the various regional characteristics of the annual cycle of temperature. iii This analysis procedure is affected by the density and distribution of observing stations around a grid point. Results would be most reliable, if a large number of stations were isotropically distributed around each grid point. Unfortunately, this is generally not the case, especially in the tropical regions and parts of the Southern Hemisphere (Fig. 1). Also, since values interpolated to grid points represent averages over areas, intense gradients may not be presented quite exact in the spatial patterns. 5.1 Monthly Statistics Monthly statistics are presented for January, April, July, and October here, but monthly statistics for all calendar months are contained in the enclosed microfiche set, which is described in Appendix 1. 5.5 Fourier Results (Daily Temperature Range) 101 CONTINUE READ (ITAPEI,'(A100)') CHGRIDS READ (CHGRIDS,'(2514)') (IGRID(I),I=IFST,KLON*KLAT)
Quantifying and specifying the solar influence on terrestrial surface temperature
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2010
This investigation is a follow-up of a paper in which we showed that both major magnetic components of the solar dynamo, viz. the toroidal and the poloidal ones, are correlated with average terrestrial surface temperatures. Here, we quantify, improve and specify that result and search for their causes.
The Greenhouse Effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth's Atmosphere
This paper presents observed atmospheric thermal and humidity structures and global scale simulations of the infrared absorption properties of the Earth's atmosphere. These data show that the global average clear sky greenhouse effect has remained unchanged with time. A theoretically predicted infrared optical thickness is fully consistent with, and supports the observed value. It also facilitates the theoretical determination of the planetary radiative equilibrium cloud cover, cloud altitude and Bond albedo. In steady state, the planetary surface (as seen from space) shows no greenhouse effect: the all-sky surface upward radiation is equal to the available solar radiation. The all-sky climatological greenhouse effect (the difference of the all-sky surface upward flux and absorbed solar flux) at this surface is equal to the reflected solar radiation. The planetary radiative balance is maintained by the equilibrium cloud cover which is equal to the theoretical equilibrium clear sky transfer function. The Wien temperature of the all-sky emission spectrum is locked closely to the thermo-dynamic triple point of the water assuring the maximum radiation entropy. The stability and natural fluctuations of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water. Many authors have proposed a greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The present analysis shows that such an effect is impossible.
Interannual variations in the earth's radiative budget and the general circulation
2007
Diurnal variation in albedo and infrared radiation from Nimbus 3 and ESSA 7 for April fitted with TIROS 4 profiles 21 Northern hemisphere monthly zonal index from 35N to 55N on a 700 mb surface (solid curve); mean monthly zonal index based upon a 9 year average (dashed curve) 24 14 Northern hemisphere zonal kinetic energy in the mixed space-time domain for the layer 850 mb to 200 mb from 20N to 90N (solid curve); mean monthly zonal kinetic energy based on a 9 year average (dashed curve). .. 15 Northern hemisphere eddy kinetic energy in the mixed space-time domain for the later 850 mb to 200 mb from 20N to 90N (solid curve); mean monthly eddy kinetic energy based on a 9 year average (dashed curve). .. . 37 l6a Correlation coefficients of interannual variations with the general circulation parameters leading (-months) and lagging (+months) the net radiation gradient.. .. 40 l6b Correlation coefficients of interannual variations with the general circulation parameters leading (-months) and lagging (+months) the net radiation gradient. .
A new correlation between global solar energy radiation and daily temperature variations
Solar Energy, 2015
The energy balance for an atmospheric layer near the soil is evaluated. By integrating it over the whole day period, a linear relationship between the global daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface and the product of the sunshine hours at clear sky with the daily maximum temperature variation is achieved. The results for the monthly averaged daily values show a comparable accuracy with some well recognized models such as the Å ngströ m-Prescott one, at least for Mediterranean climatic area. Validation of the results has been performed using old data sets which are almost contemporary and relative to the same sites with the ones used for the comparison.