Empirical Analysis of Export Performance and its impact on Economy of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis (original) (raw)

Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006)

2010

The present study has been conducted in the year 2008 to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan during 1970-2006 using econometric techniques. Time series data ranging from 1970 to 2006 on total exports, primary commodities exports, semi-manufactures and exports of manufactured goods has been taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan (Statistical Supplement, 2006-07). Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been used for checking the stationarity of the data. Furthermore, the Johenson Co-integration test (likelihood ratio statistic) has been used to detect the long-term relationship among the series. The method of ordinary least square has been used to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan. The results indicate that 1% increase in the exports of primary commodities brings 0.97% increase in total exports in Pakistan. Similarly, 1% increase in the exports of semi-manufactures leads to increase total exports by 0.99%. On similar pattern, 1% increase in the exports of manuf...

Determinants of Pakistan’s Exports: An Econometric Analysis

Comparative Economic Research

The research investigated the determinants of Pakistan’s exports by using time series data from 1990–2016. Certain econometric tests were also applied to check cointegration among variables. A unit root test was used to check the stationarity of selected variables. After the stationarity of the data, a vector error correction model is used to estimate the effect of regressors, like foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, employment level, and consumption expenditures on a dependent variable, i.e. exports in the short run. The result shows the positive relationships that foreign direct investment, gross domestic product and employment level have on exports, and the adverse impact of consumption expenditures on the dependent variable. The study uses Johansen’s cointegration test for the long run. The results show that all the variables are co-integrated in the long run. It is suggested that the government should encourage foreign direct investment and gross domestic product...

Relationship of Export and Economic Growth; an Empirical Study of Pakistan

2012

Pakistan has been facing the phenomenon of disturbed economy and unequal distribution of income. Export sector is not being given the required importance in most of countries. It requires attention toward outward oriented policies and international markets. This research aims at studying the impact of export on the economy. The relationship of export and economic growths for Pakistan is the

Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth of Pakistan

ABSTRACT The nature of the relationship between exports and country’s economic growth has been one of the most debated topic in the recent past, yet with little consensus. Central to this debate is the question of whether strong economic performance is export-led or growth driven. This question is important because the determination of the causal pattern between export and growth has important implications for policy-makers' decisions about the appropriate growth and development strategies and policies to adopt. This paper investigates the causality between exports and economic growth of Pakistan, through the application of econometric technique Granger causality by using real exports of Pakistan, real GDP of Pakistan, and real terms of trade of Pakistan. The results are based on annual data collected from 1960 to 2009. The empirical results from Granger causality technique clearly indicate that there exists unidirectional causality from GDP to exports in Pakistan but not vice versa.

Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Case of Pakistan

2018

It is obvious that exports and economic growth have a positive relationship, means that as export increases it leads to increase in economic growth. The aim of this research study is to find out the impact of export and import on economic growth in the long run. The study has utilized a time series data that covers time period from 1981 to 2017. To check the stationarity of the data we have used (ADF) test, after confirming that the data set is stationary, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) or bound testing approach is applied to check the long run relationship among the economic variables. The result of this study shows that export has a positive impact on GDP growth in the long run. The import variable remained negative and insignificant.

Modeling the Impact of Exports on the Economic Growth of Pakistan

Turkish Economic Review, 2018

This study is an empirical investigation to Export led Growth hypothesis (1971-2016) in case of Pakistan by applying cointegration analysis and dynamic error correction mechanism. The study proves that the exports are important and significant determinant of economic growth in Pakistan. The analysis also reveals that the exports along with labor force, investment and Domestic credit to private sector ratio are important for the long-run as well as short run economic growth of Pakistan.

The Export Growth of Pakistan: A Decomposition Analysis

The Constant Market Share Analysis of export growth is used here to capture the world trade effect, the commodity composition effect, the market distribution effect and the competitiveness effect for the periods: 1984-85-1988-89 and 1988-89-1992-93. The results show that Pakistan has maintained her export share in the world market. The market distribution and competitiveness of Pakistani exports have improved significantly between the two periods under study. However, the concentration of Pakistani exports into traditional commodities, whose world demand remained sluggish, has offset the positive contribution of effective market distribution and improved competitive strengths to a large extent. A restructuring of exports (from traditional to non-traditional), an increase in the variety of exports, search for new fast growing markets and an improvement in the economic and political environment are suggested to enhance the export growth of Pakistan in future.

The Impact of Exports on Economic Growth of Pakistan and India

Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research, 2019

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exports on economic growth of Pakistan and India for the period of 1990 to 2016. The unit root test namely Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was used to identify stationarity in the data. The method of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) was employed to estimate the coefficient of the variables. The FMOLS results exhibit that exports is having positive and significant impact on economic growth in both countries. Moreover, the empirical results reveal that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow and human capital have also positive and significant effect on the economic growth. The findings of this study suggest that policy makers need to make effective policies in order to increase the volume of exports as well as attract direct foreign investment and encourage human capital in order to stimulate economic growth.

An Empirical Investigation on the Role of exports, imports and its Determinants in Foreign Trade of Pakistan

Information Management and Business Review, 2017

Foreign trade was restrained by fluctuations and depreciations in currencies, nations were under financial pressure to implement protection measures in form of custom duties tariffs. These theories and thoughts have enormous impact on rules and policies of global trade throughout the world. To adopt economic liberalization and free trade zones nations all over the world are connected through number of agreements since last few centuries. In this revolutionized economic system, nations allow free trading of merchandise and services and at the same time don't have to impose tariff in form of import and exports duties. This study attempted to empirically evaluate the role of imports, exports and its determinants in foreign trade of Pakistan applied ARDL Approach for the period of 1972-2015. The study recommends that economies with significant competitiveness and comparative advantage will be greatly benefited from export promoting policies. As far as trade partners are concerned, no considerable efforts have been done to explore new markets in direction of Pakistan's foreign trade since its independence. The key trading partners of Pakistan in the beginning were the developed countries of West and still they are main trading partners of Pakistan.