Turkey's Presidential Referendum and the (Not So) Curious Case of the Turkish Diaspora in Europe (original) (raw)
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On 16 April 2017, Turks cast their vote in a nationwide referendum that introduced significant changes to the current constitution, which has been in use since 1982. Even though the 1982 constitution has been amended 18 times in the past 35 years, the scheduled changes will have the most dramatic impact on the Turkish political system. This article will first provide an overview of the proposed amendments to the 1982 constitution. It will then discuss the repercussions of the referendum results for Turkey and the rest of Europe.
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On 16 April the citizens of Turkey voted in a national referendum to amend the constitution. This will lead to a radical strengthening of the president's power. 51.4% of the voters backed the amendments. They will come into force after the next presidential and parliamentary election (scheduled for 2019). The amendments are an important step in the thorough reconstruction of the Republic of Turkey which began in 2002. They will strengthen the position of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in legal terms, and – with all the controversies that entails – will adjust the legal status to the situation on the ground. The outcome of the referendum helps to temporarily stabilise the internal situation in Turkey and allows the country to be more active on the international arena; this includes making another attempt to thoroughly revise its relations with the EU. However, the amendment of the constitution is of a technical nature and is a means rather than an end in the process of building a New Turkey. Thus the calming of the situation in Turkey is temporary.
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An analysis of the Turkish referendum result of 16 April 2017, which saw the electorate almost perfectly split down the middle. It considers what the result means for the consolidation of President Recept Tayyip Erdogan's power base, and whether the narrow margin of victory will be viewed as an opportunity by sidelined heavyweights within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), such as former President Abdullah Gul and former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, or whether they will remain silent in the face of the President's growing monopoly on power.
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Unofficial results from Turkey's April 16 constitutional referendum show that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has won the right to expand presidential power. The "yes" campaign has won 51.37% of the votes while "no" has secured 48.63%, with 99.45% of ballots counted. The electoral board has declared a victory for the former but the country's two main opposition parties are challenging the results, demanding a recount of 60% of the votes. Official results are expected in 11 to 12 days. Erdoğan can now create an executive presidency that will make him the head of state and head of government, ending the country's current parliamentary political system. The changes could mean that Erdoğan retains power until 2029 in the highly divisive country that has been further polarised in the run-up to the referendum. The Conversation Global asked scholars what they made of the results and what lies ahead for Turkey. Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan and his wife Emine greet supporters near Tarabya mansion in Istanbul. Murad Sezer/Reuters
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The constitutional referendum of September 2010 was a historic moment and a milestone in modern Turkey’s democratization journey. Serving as the public’s “final say” on the question of democracy in Turkey and paving the way for a new civilian constitution, the referendum will have far-reaching consequences for civil-military relations, independence of the judicial system, and institutionalization of democracy in Turkey. This study investigates the consequences of the referendum for the shaping of the political scene in Turkey by analyzing the political parties’ campaign strategies, voting patterns, voter preferences, and likely scenarios for the June 2011 general elections. The report is divided into four main parts that tackle the main questions that the referendum of 2010 raised. First, what is the significance of the September 2010 constitutional referendum in Turkey? Second, what campaign strategies were most effective during the referendum? Third, what can be deduced from the voting patterns and voter preferences? Fourth, what can we predict about the June 2011 general Elections based on voter behaviors during the constitutional referendum of 2010? The study of the September 2010 constitutional referendum results revealed significant clues as to what could be the results of the June 2011 general elections. The AK Party’s referendum campaign strategy, constructed around “democratic freedoms,” resonated strongly among voters in Turkey. Having analyzed the geographic distribution of votes during the referendum, this report demonstrates that the opposition parties took the risk of becoming merely local or regional parties while the AK Party was the only party with the political discourse that would address the themes that concerned voters across Turkey. The June 2011 general elections may prove to be the most important elections in Turkey’s recent electoral history. Just as a strong preference for “democratic freedoms” among voters became clear during the referendum, the upcoming general election in Turkey is poised to determine who is to survive Turkey’s political landscape over the next decade.