GDP of the Sugar and Alcohol Sector in Brazil and Northeast: an input-output approach (original) (raw)
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Revista de Economia e Agronegócio, 2018
Under the traditional classification into primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, the value of Agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is underestimated since the products generated upstream (inputs, implements and machines) and downstream (processing, transformation and distribution) are not computed in this statistic. In order to solve this problem, several recent studies, using the concept of Agribusiness, a term coined by Davis and Goldberg in 1957, and representing the sum of all activities related to agriculture, have sought to estimate the value of agricultural GDP considering this activity as the core of a much larger economic system called Agribusiness and Agro-industrial Complex (CAI). In this work, we attempted to quantify the GDP of the sugar and alcohol sector both for the Northeast and for Brazil, and the participation of the region in GDP composition of this sector in Brazil. The results show that the GDP of this sector accounts for 9.21% of regional GDP. In Brazil, this share is 6.91%. Given that the industry in the Northeast accounts for 15.57% of the national GDP of this activity. ____________________________________ RESUMO Sob a classificação tradicional em setores primário, secundário e terciário a agropecuária tem o valor do Produto Interno Bruto-PIB-subestimado uma vez que os produtos gerados a montante (insumos, implementos e máquinas) e a jusante (processamento, transformação e distribuição) não são computados nessa estatística. Objetivando equacionar essa distorção, diversos trabalhos recentes, utilizando-se do conceito de Agribusiness-termo cunhado por Davis e Goldberg em 1957 e que representa a soma de todas as atividades ligadas à agropecuária, têm buscado dimensionar o valor do PIB agropecuária considerando essa atividade como o núcleo de um sistema econômico muito mais amplo e denominado de Agronegócio ou Complexo Agroindustrial (CAI). Os resultados mostram que o PIB desse setor representa 9,21% do PIB regional e, no Brasil, essa participação é de 6,91%. Sendo que a indústria no Nordeste reponde por 15,57% do PIB nacional dessa atividade.
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Agribusiness, including all its dimensions, is the largest economic sector in Brazil and plays a fundamental role in the development of the country's economy. About one-fourth of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is composed of agribusiness. The objective of this article is to evaluate the participation of agribusiness in the economy of an important region of Brazil from 2010 to 2015. The evaluation was carried out through the decomposition of GDP, with an analysis of aggregate inputs, agro-livestock products, industrialization, and services. This article presents three main contributions to the understanding and composition of agribusiness GDP. The novelty of this article lies in the fact that it is the first work in the literature to present the steps of the methodology for calculating GDP in a region representing Brazilian agribusiness, considering its aggregates and relating the generation of taxes and other factors. In addition to the empirical and methodological contributions, this article highlights the relevance of agribusiness to the Brazilian economy, which, in turn, has relevance to global agribusiness.
THE REGIONAL (STATE LEVEL) IMPORTANCE OF THE AGRIBUSINESS GDP IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
2004
Following Furtuoso and Guilhoto (2003) the GDP of the Brazilian Agribusiness is estimated to be around 27% of the Brazilian GDP in 2000, and the latest numbers show that it could be reaching 30% of the Brazilian GDP in 2003. Despite its importance for the Brazilian economy as a whole, the size of the Brazilian territory and the regional differences
Regional Importance of the Agribusiness in the Brazilian Economy
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Following the GDP of the Brazilian Agribusiness is estimated to be around 27% of the Brazilian GDP in 2000, and the latest numbers show that it could be reaching 30% of the Brazilian GDP in 2003. Despite its importance for the Brazilian economy as a whole, the size of the Brazilian territory and the regional differences draws attention for the fact that the importance of the agribusiness is not uniform over the Brazilian regions, and if the agribusiness is also divided into its four components, i.e., a) inputs to agriculture; b) agriculture; c) agriculture based industry; and d) final distribution, the differences are even bigger. In this paper it is made a study of the importance of the agribusiness for the 27 states of the Brazilian economy, taking into consideration its four components. The analysis is conduct for the year of 1999 using an interregional input-output system constructed for the Brazilian economy by .
The aim of this paper is estimate how important is agriculture and familiar agriculture agribusiness for Brazil and its states. To do so, the GDP for the agribusiness of these complexes is estimated for Brazil and for its 27 states. The estimation is based on an interregional input-output system constructed for the Brazilian economy. The agribusiness takes into consideration the relations between the agriculture production and the other sectors in the economy (inputs for production, industry, transportation, distribution, and commercialization). The importance of the agribusiness can be evidence for it's share of about 30% in the total Brazilian GDP, but regional differences will make this average oscillates between 4% and 79% in the Brazilian states. Another distinction will be made between small familiar production and large scale production that will vary according to the product and the state. Some relation between land distribution and the type of agriculture will also be made.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The cane, sugar and ethanol production in Brazil has been divided in two major production regions, the Center-South (CS) and the North-Northeastern (NNE) Brazil. These regions present very different productivity, and henceforth production costs. The Center-South average productivity is higher than 72 tons of cane per hectare, while the average cane 1 This work is part of a Ph.D. thesis of the first author: Cinthia Cabral da Costa. 2 production by hectare in the NNE is about 49 tons. The primary objective of the study was to set up the inter-relations between the cane agroindustry with other regional sectors and with the overall Brazilian economy. This framework was used to compare a demand impact of each regional cane agroindustry upon the regional and the overall Brazilian economy. An inter-regional input-output matrix was used to characterize how a regional demand impact affects both, the regional (CS and NNE) and overall Brazilian economies. Rasmussen-Hirschman indexes, together with a pure linkage index, described by Guilhoto et al. (1996), were used for the analysis. In addition, production multipliers, with and without considering endogenous family consumption were estimated. According to these indexes, a positive demand impact upon the cane agroindustry produces a greater impact upon the NNE compared to the CS economy, when income effects are considered, indicating that cane production is more important for the NNE economy than it is for the CS economy.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Through the use of input-output analysis tools, like backward and forward linkages (Hirschman-Rasmussen and Pure), it was possible to delineate which are the sectors that belong to the Brazilian Agribusiness. From the definition of the sectors and using the Brazilian input-output tables it was possible to measure the GDP of Brazilian Agribusiness which were estimated to be around 27% of the Brazilian GDP in 1999. The GDP of the Agribusiness was also estimated for two major complexes: a) Vegetal Products and b) Animal Products. Each of the Agribusiness complexes was divided into four components: a) inputs to agriculture; b) agriculture; c) agriculture based industry; and d) final distribution. To estimate the monthly growth rates of the Agribusiness it was used on one hand the inputoutput tables to estimate the weight of each sector in the complex and on the other hand it was used a series of economic indexes (price and quantity) available for the Brazilian economy. It is important to stress that the measure of the monthly growth rates of the Agribusiness GDP was done taking into consideration the income side of agriculture, i.e., we have tried to make the growth rates sensible to real price as well as real quantity changes, given that the quarterly estimates of the Brazilian Government Statistical Institute (IBGE) are given taken into consideration only growth rates into agricultural production, as so we do believe that the monthly growth rates that we have obtained are much more representative of what happen in the Brazilian Agriculture and Agribusiness than the ones released by IBGE.
Applied Economics, 2006
The cane, sugar and ethanol production in Brazil has been divided in two major production regions, the Center-South (CS) and the North-Northeastern (NNE) Brazil. These regions present very different productivity, and henceforth production costs. The Center-South average productivity is higher than 72 tons of cane per hectare, while the average cane 1 This work is part of a Ph.D. thesis of the first author: Cinthia Cabral da Costa. 2 production by hectare in the NNE is about 49 tons. The primary objective of the study was to set up the inter-relations between the cane agroindustry with other regional sectors and with the overall Brazilian economy. This framework was used to compare a demand impact of each regional cane agroindustry upon the regional and the overall Brazilian economy. An inter-regional input-output matrix was used to characterize how a regional demand impact affects both, the regional (CS and NNE) and overall Brazilian economies. Rasmussen-Hirschman indexes, together with a pure linkage index, described by Guilhoto et al. (1996), were used for the analysis. In addition, production multipliers, with and without considering endogenous family consumption were estimated. According to these indexes, a positive demand impact upon the cane agroindustry produces a greater impact upon the NNE compared to the CS economy, when income effects are considered, indicating that cane production is more important for the NNE economy than it is for the CS economy.
Impacts of Changes in Regional Sugar and Ethanol Exports Upon Brazilian Overall Economy
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper estimates the impact of an increase in Brazilian sugar and ethanol demand for exports upon the countries' overall production and employment. The impacts were simulated considering each of the major cane producing areas of the country (Center-South and North-Northeast). An inter-regional input-output matrix for the Brazilian economy was used for that purpose. It was observed that a demand shock, resulting from an expansion of sugar exports presented an impact of greater magnitude upon the countries' production and employment when compared to the impact from an increase in ethanol. In addition, the results indicated that when the impact is generated at the North-Northeastern Brazil, production and employment is more affected than when it begins at the Center-South region of the country. The result of how the economic benefits are disseminated in the economy is important to identify policies and establish targets for regional production.
Expected growth of sugarcane industry and impact on the Brazilian economy: 2015 and 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2011
The sugarcane sector in Brazil has been achieving large increases in production since the beginning of the 2000s, owing to the deregulation of its two main products: sugar and ethanol. This growth has been driven more by the ethanol production, which grew at a rate of 13% per annum (between 2000 and 2009), than by sugar, which grew at an annual rate of 8% over the same period. Nevertheless, instability in the supply of ethanol is still a problem in the industry. Structural changes, such as the mechanization of sugarcane harvesting, are also in progress. Taking into account the future demands for sugar and ethanol and structural changes in projections, made by industry representatives for the years 2015 and 2020, this article employs inuput-output analysis to estimate the impact of these projections on the Brazilian economy. The results show that in 2010, with a production of R$ 66.6 billion for sugar and R$ 36.2 billion for ethanol (at 2010 prices), the total impact on the economy was about R$ 374.6 billion in Total Output (TO), R$ 210 billion in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), R$ 62.4 billion in remuneration to employees, and a gain of 5.1 million jobs, per annum. For 2015, the estimated economic impact on TO, GDP and employee earnings was 56% higher than the values for 2010. As for 2020, the projections showed that the increases were in the range from 109 to 117% in scenario 1, or 91 to 98% in scenario 2. For job numbers, the impact in 2015 was 48% higher than that reported for 2010, while in 2020 it was between 82 to 99% higher. It was also observed that the income effect of the shocks in the ethanol and sugar sectors was the most significant part of the predicted impact on the number of jobs created in the economy. The results showed, therefore, the importance of the sugarcane industry in the economy, emphasizing the need for government policies to foster the growth of this sector.