Extreme Rainfall Events when Active Madden-Julian Oscillation Entering The Western Region of Indonesia (Case Study : Flood Events in Padang and Purworejo on June 2016) (original) (raw)
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Dominant Factors of Jakarta’s Three Largest Floods
Jurnal Hidrosfir Indonesia, 2011
In year 2002, 2007 and 2008 Jakarta experienced heaviest flood in early February from rain that precipitate in several days ahead. Those rainfalls take place in early morning for few consecutive days. The extreme early morning rainfall occurs due to three dominant phenomena the Madden Julian oscillation wet phase, the cold surge and a vortex in the southwest of Java. The cold surge from north compressed the air mass over the north of Jakarta Bay, picked up as much as water vapor over it and brings to the bay. Especially at night during intense land breeze, south ward movement of compressed and moist air collided frontally with the land breeze and caused strong uplifting at the coast. The latter phenomenon created strong convection at the Jakarta metropolitan areas at early morning and caused extreme rainfall events. Those daily rainfall rate are almost and exceed the monthly rainfall values. Analises of data from satellite observation, rain gauge, wind and radar imagery prove the mechanism of extreme weather in early morning that cause heavy flood over Jakarta. The incoming of those three phenomena could be predicted in advance with quite a certainty. The MJO is a feature that has 50 days oscillation so that MJO wet phase could be predicted in advance up to 2 weeks. The cold surge that comes from Siberia has index of sudden drop of pressure in Hongkong before propagate to Southeast Asia, thus could be predicted in advance about one week ahead. Lastly the vortex development in southwest of Java could be predicted up to 1 days in advanced. Those information on the three major or dominant weather feature will be a good early warning for heavy flood of Jakarta especially in early February.
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Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC) is one the most important region at the equator which affected by many atmospheric phenomena, especially Madden-Julian Oscillation and Monsoon. Asian Winter Monsoon causes the increasing of rainfall in several places in Indonesia in December-January-February (DJF), and since MJO related to a propagation of convective cloud, somehow it affects the rainfall variability in equator, especially over Indonesia. Interaction of both phenomena simultaneously bring rainfall is increasing in Indonesia, especially in Western Part of Indonesia. Therefore, a research about the impact of MJO in rainfall especially in Bandung and other cities over Indonesia is important. This study aims to investigate impacts of MJO events on the rainfall variability in Bandung and other cities focusing when Asian Winter Monsoon (December-January-February/DJF) for period of DJF 2002/03-DJF 2012/13 passing over Indonesia. The results show that from 10 MJO events in period DJF 2002/03-DJF 2012/13, the event increased the rainfall continuously in phase 3, phase 4, and phase 5. In phase 3, the increasing happened in every station except Supadio in Pontianak with the total precipitation > 30 mm/day. The condition of rainfall in phase 4 fluctuates in every station, but with the dominant increasing in Equator. In phase 5, the decreasing of rainfall happened in North of the Equator and Equator, while in South of Equator, the rainfall in Cengkareng Station in Jakarta increased about 20% but decreased about-42% in Bandung Station.
MAUSAM, 2022
. High rainfall intensity in Indonesia, even if it happens during the dry season can cause floods and landslides that cause a lot of loss of property and life, as happened in Purworejo. Generally, the dry season such as June has a little rainfall, and even more, heavy rain is very rare. However, the disaster in Purworejo became an important experience in anticipating disasters by identifying the precursors of extreme rainfall. This research aims to obtain highintensity rain precursors in the south of Central Java, especially Purworejo. Identification is done using rainfall intensity classification and is related to atmospheric phenomena that affect Indonesian rainfall variability. The results show that if there is very heavy rainfall and evenly distributed, precursors, can be identified 3 days before the incident, such as a low outgoing long radiation (OLR) value of <150 Wm-2 . Moreover, in an analysis of the average 3 days before the incident, the value of the OLR anomaly in the Central Java region is between –60 to –20 Wm-2 .Meanwhile, the vertical humidity profile has a value of more than 80% up to a level of 500 Mb, as the temperature value of more than 30.2 °C in the Indian Ocean bordering the southern part of Java Island occurs three to four days before the extreme rain event in Purworejo Regency. This change occurs when the value of the Indian Dipole Mode is negative and the ENSO is neutral. Existing low air pressure in the northern part of Kalimantan and in the southern part of Java, which persists for a long time, can support very heavy rains in June in Purworejo. Especially if the wind speed decreases to less than 4 m/s and occurs in phases 3 and 4 of the MJO. The 20 mm/30-minute rainfall that occurs for 7 hours without stopping needs to be watched out for because it has the potential to cause flash floods in the sandy loam area of Purworejo.
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