Envisioning the Future: Iranian and Saudi Perspectives on the Post-Oil Economy (original) (raw)

The Gulf Region: The Post Oil Economy: Invitation to Write

In light of the immense energy problem facing Gulf region, countries find themselves forced to the wall in meeting an increasing energy demand meantime respond to climate preservation calls while attaining high growth rates. In a region that is heavily dependent on oil, the question of sustainability is raised on board. The sensitivity of the energy problem in the Gulf area stems from the fact that energy is embodied in all activities. In other words the contribution of oil visa -vis non-oil sectors to the economy is alarming. Suggested ideas include-but not limited to-the greening of energy subsidies, the role of non-hydrocarbons in restructuring growth in gulf area, the cost of conversion to green economy, potential finance schemes of green energy…etc.)

The Political Economy of Gulf Energy Reform

Paradoxical as it may appear, it is now widely accepted that the major oil producing countries of the Gulf face their own energy crisis. is is not due to imminent exhaustion of hydrocarbon reserves, as some had predicted or feared in the past decade. e threat of peak oil has dramatically receded in the past five years, thanks to the rapid increase of production from so-called non-conventional oil and gas reserves – primarily in the United States, but also in the rest of the world. Indeed, it is increasingly clear that those resources are not confined to the United States or North America, but found in many other parts of the world, including the Arabian Peninsula. Neither is the crisis due to universal acceptance of targets for the effective reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) in order to contain global warming within 2 degrees centigrade, which science suggests is the maximum that we can afford before catastrophic consequences emerge. It is rather due to the very rapid increase in domestic energy consumption, which threatens to outpace the growth in hydrocarbon production; and the growing awareness of the fact that an energy system exclusively reliant on hydrocarbon sources is not sufficiently flexible and does not provide an adequate platform for economic diversification and sustainability of the Gulf economies and societies.

Iran’s Prospects of Return to the Gas Market and Other Stakeholders

Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies

Soon after the signing of the nuclear deal, foreign companies rushed to Iran to revive their businesses. Sanctions had been imposed on the Islamic Republic post-1979 revolution and soon after expanded in 1995. During the years of sanctions, Iran had to a large extent become self-reliant with no major developments, yet continued to sustain itself to be a promising economy. However, diversification has not changed the face of the country as it remains largely dependent on hydrocarbons. The contention in this article is that the ease of US sanctions on Iran, will see an energy shift that will realign the regional balance of power visa -vis other players like Saudi Arabia. The article further evaluates how the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s concern for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), asserting itself as a power, that would dictate future energy share and pricing. GECF accounts for 67% of the world's proven gas reserves and 64% of global LNG exports. The article will also attempt to identify Qatar's position, if at all it wishes to facilitate Iran in achieving a gas exporter status. Finally, the article will attempt to analyze Iran in the GECF and whether it can work alongside other gas majors.

Global Energy Markets and the Persian Gulf

Routledge Handbook Of Persian Gulf Politics, 2020

This chapter examines how changes in the global energy system will impact states in the Persian Gulf. The latter's response strategies are analyzed along with their political implications on domestic and international audiences.

The Significance of Energy in Iran's Future Regional Relations

Historically, Iran has had multi-layered relations with her immediate Arab neighbors. While security and geopolitical issues, especially Iran’s nuclear program have dominated the more recent analysis of these regional relations, there are a number of other aspects such as cultural and religious ties as well as business and economic interaction. Suffice to say that in the past decade, the UAE has been one of Iran’s top trading partners, while Iraq has been Iran’s most significant export market for non-oil commodities as well as the fact that Iran and Qatar share the largest gas field1 in the world. This paper will take a closer look at energy relations among the countries bordering the Persian Gulf, i.e. Iran, Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). As energy interconnectivity is one of the parameters in Iran’s regional relations, the paper will pay special attention to the potential role that natural gas can play in regional relations. As will be seen below, energy sector realities may actually pave the way for gas and electricity interconnectivity to become a platform for regional collaboration and a means of greater confidence building. Key to the constructive use of the energy factor is to understand the actual and emerging energy needs in this region as opposed to just analyzing the Persian Gulf countries as producers of oil and gas, hence competitors as exporters of hydrocarbon resources.

Economic Necessities and Iranian-Saudi Cooperation within OPEC

2011

Since Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran and Saudi Arabia have faced different challenges within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) concerning oil price and quota. However, in the late 1990s the two countries reached an agreement on the related issues for the first time after the revolution. This paper, from the perspective of the functionalism theory, attempts to examine the factors that played a significant role in Tehran-Riyadh cooperation within OPEC in 1999. The paper reveals that the Iranian-Saudi cooperation was derived from two factors: internal and external. The internal factor involved Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s domestic economic problems during the decade of 1990 and the external factor was the decline of the world oil price in the late years of the decade. In other words, internal economic pressures coincided with the external factor and contributed to cooperation of the two countries.

The Middle East and the New Era in the World Oil Market

Between 2014 and 2016 the oil market underwent sharp fluctuations and the price of WTI oil dropped by 80%.This reflected the changes that were taking place in the oil industry such as the rise in the status of oil shale in US, improved pumping abilities, the end of economic sanctions against Iran, the removal of the threat to Iraqi oil caused by internal instability, the increased role played by speculators and banks in the determination of oil prices based on increasing interest rates and internal conflicts within OPEC. The objective of this article is to reexamine some of the assumptions which have influenced the policies of governments, investors and traders and aims to present the 2014 oil crisis as both a turning point in the oil market and as an event that has limited OPEC's power to determine oil prices. The article also seeks to analyze the factors that have led to the change in the oil market, the effects of the crisis on OPEC oil policy and to examine the implications of the decline in oil prices on social, political and economic aspects.

Energy Geopolitics in the Middle East after the OPEC Summit

Oil’s role as the most important commodity in the world is evident in its impact on political developments around the world. As the epicenter of the global economy and the demand for oil shifts from the West to fast-growing Asian markets, the Middle East has gained competitive advantage and heightened in importance by its crucial geostrategic location, both as a rich supplier and as a conduit. Oil’s role as the most important commodity in the world is evident in its impact on political developments around the world. As the epicenter of the global economy and the demand for oil shifts from the West to fast-growing Asian markets, the Middle East has gained competitive advantage and heightened in importance by its crucial geostrategic location, both as a rich supplier and as a conduit. requires vigilance to shifting regional dynamics and raises sensitivities to realities of the multipolar world order. Great power politics occupies an important place in world affairs, albeit to a smaller extent in comparison to a unipolar or bipolar order. Regional alliances are formed with greater flexibility, creating micro spheres of influence, and raising uncertainty. The US assumes an offshore balancer role with focus on Asia-Pacific while the Middle East appears ever-more divided along ethnic, religious, and sectarian lines. Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two arch-rivals of the Gulf, aim to improve their standing while Turkey and Israel play pivotal roles to sustain their influence over developments in the region. The ultimate arena of this power politics is Syria, the fate of which depends on negotiation skills of intervening parties to create a framework agreement where there are no winners or losers.

Future Energy Breakthroughs: Implications for the Hydrocarbon Economies of the Arabian Gulf

Global Challenges, 2024

Countries in the Arabian Gulf are reliant upon hydrocarbons for revenues, exports, industries and funding services. It is largely assumed that the global energy transition will be gradual, as reflected in planning and strategy documents. However, energy breakthroughs can change the global energy system. This Perspective article seeks to provoke a discussion about potential energy breakthroughs, the plausibility of their rapid expansion at scale, and the implications they may have for the hydrocarbon economies in the Arabian Gulf. Based upon feasibility, scalability, and adoption potential potential energy breakthroughs are outlined, their probability are assessed, and potential impacts on the hydrocarbon economics of the region are evaluated. The calls to actions are concluded with aim to support the region to be better prepared to track breakthroughs, and be proactively engaged to benefit from them. These include: 1) annual regional research-policy interface meetings, 2) tailored research and development funding that fosters regional collaboration, 3) investment into breakthrough technologies and energy transition inputs, and 4) seeking synergy in economic diversification regionally to avoid duplication and counterproductive competition.