MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE DECISION PROCESS (original) (raw)

Currently, financial audit has a role to play in assessing the efficiency, economy and effectiveness of the organization's control environment, with other recommendations for improving the system and control processes, including anticipating the future of the institution's decision-making system. Risk analyzes during the audit planning phase are directed to management approaches and methods that establish a link with mathematics and computation, which is responsible for substantiating the managerial decision-making process in terms of auditing effectiveness. Audit recommendations in shaping a decision-making process under uncertain conditions determine us to specify its elements, namely: risk, problem formulation and specification of the minimization / maximization objectives of some technical / economic indicators, the set of possible alternatives / alternatives that characterize a decision maker of the situation, set of anticipated consequences for each variant,-independent factors of the decision makers and the conjuncture type. From the set of possible variants calculated by one or more mathematical methods, the auditor should choose only one, that is, the most convenient solution. The evaluation of risk and uncertainty decisions in the process of knowledge and analysis of the current situation is accomplished through a multitude of methods, ways and means to identify, determine the audit planning activity. The method of mathematical models or models whose significance is described and applied in the analysis and evaluation of scientific research which does not constitute a new discovery but which reproduces certain aspects of the studied objectives in order to facilitate the analysis of processes or systems. Today, it is impossible to conceive an audit, an economic discipline, or a financial discipline that does not use quantification, numerical expression, law, interdependence, and measurement of trends in decision-making in its knowledge process. Moreover, the complexity of the interconnection of the activity in the decision making process of several disciplines makes it necessary for the audit of its evaluation to use this modern tool, which guarantees not only the precision of the formulation of the conclusions but also the efficiency of the recommendations on this basis in the concrete economic activity .