Risk Analysis Method in Struggle with Terror (original) (raw)

These first years of our twenty-first century will probably be considered as a period in which terrorism has changed dimension and turned out to be an issue that threats the globalized world rather than a problem of some specific countries. Only a small period of the human history of five millenniums has passed without a war since the invention of writing. All the sides and the fronts in these wars are always known. With the twentieth century, first the definition of the war and front changed, the battlefield became any place in the world and the war hit every person in every second without mentioning the differences between soldiers and civilians or morning and evening. Besides, the twentieth century turned out to be a century when the age of the wars of triumph and honor closed and each member of the both sides of a war suffered harm in any case. With the beginning of the twenty-first century, while the world is away from the threat of a global war, the danger of terror and terrorism as the most serious thereat to the humanity and the governmental system became more terrible than any war and a catastrophe for which it is impossible to be completely alert and ready. As a consequence of this, it seems that the age of wars and triumphs closed and the age of strugle between terrorism and anti-terrorism has started. As there is no real victory in this battle, a hindered terrorist intention or operation doesn't give honor or a model to a person like a victory attained after a war does. The battle field of terrorism may be anywhere, the attack time may be any time, the weapons to be used may be anything and the soldiers may be potentially anybody. As a result, in this battle of which the winner is not evident and the loser is everybody, the need to re-analyze the methods and understanding of struggling with terror has emerged. In the light of the ideas above, it would be helpful to divide the struggle with terror into three subsequent steps. The first one of these steps is 'Controlling the Risk' which has been used up to now. The second one is 'Managing the Risk' which is accepted as a more developed understanding and becoming more popular now. The last and the newly one is 'Analyzing the Risk' method. Now we can discuss and evaluate these steps. A) Risk Control: We can define it as preventing or disabling an operation or an action which has a criminal value against a state, a person or an institution beforehand by the help of utilizing different information and intelligence resources. This method, which has been being used, is the most common method in terms of public safety. A great number of highly qualified intelligence staff, expensive technical equipment and being alert all the time are vital issues in this method. It is probable to disturb the public peace for the public safety and