Drivers of change in global agriculture (original) (raw)
Related papers
Agriculture in a Global Perspective
2001
In the twenty-first century, it is evident that world agricultural systems will have to supply sufficient food for a population somewhere between 7.5 and 12 billion. Projections for world agriculture in the first half of the twenty-first century very widely, largely depending on assumptions about yield growth. An investigation of the patterns of yield growth for major cereal crops offers evidence that the pattern is logistic, implying that an upper limit to yields is being approached. This pattern is consistent with ecological limits on soil fertility, water availability, and nutrient uptake. It is also evident that current agricultural production is imposing serious strains on ecosystems, with widespread soil degradation, water overdraft and pollution, and ecological impacts such as loss of biodiversity and the proliferation of resistant pest species.
Developing Country-Wide Farming System Typologies
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018
is an agricultural economist in the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Ecosystem Services and Management (ESM) program. Her research focuses on analysing the driving factors of land use change through short-and long-term responses to agricultural shocks and regional-and country-level impacts on food security, deforestation and restoration policies. Prior to joining IIASA, Dr Boere received her PhD from Wageningen University on the effect of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy reform on land use changes.
Agriculture and Its Impact on Land‐Use, Environment, and Ecosystem Services
Landscape Ecology - The Influences of Land Use and Anthropogenic Impacts of Landscape Creation, 2016
Human expansion throughout the world caused that agriculture is a dominant form of land management globally. Human influence on the land is accelerating because of rapid population growth and increasing food requirements. To stress the interactions between society and the environment, the driving forces (D), pressures (P), states (S), impacts (I), and response (R) (DPSIR) framework approach was used for analyzing and assessing the influence of agriculture on land use, environment, and ecosystem services. The DPSIR model was used to identify a series of core indicators and to establish the nature of interactions between different driving forces, pressures, states, impacts, and responses. We assessed selected indicators at global, national, and local levels. Driving force indicators describe growing population trend and linking land-use patterns. The driving forces exert pressure on the environment assessed by indicators describing development in fertilizer and pesticides consumption, by number of livestock, and by intensification joined growing release of ammonia and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, and water abstraction. The pressure reflects in the state of environment, mainly expressed by soil and water quality indicators. Negative changes in the state then have negative impacts on landscape, e.g., traditional landscape disappearance, biodiversity, climate, and ecosystem services. As a response, technological, economic, policy, or legislation measures are adopted.
01-04 "Agriculture in a Global Perspective
In the twenty-first century, it is evident that world agricultural systems will have to supply sufficient food for a population somewhere between 7.5 and 12 billion. Projections for world agriculture in the first half of the twenty-first century very widely, largely depending on assumptions about yield growth. An investigation of the patterns of yield growth for major cereal crops offers evidence that the pattern is logistic, implying that an upper limit to yields is being approached. This pattern is consistent with ecological limits on soil fertility, water availability, and nutrient uptake. It is also evident that current agricultural production is imposing serious strains on ecosystems, with widespread soil degradation, water overdraft and pollution, and ecological impacts such as loss of biodiversity and the proliferation of resistant pest species.
Agricultural activities have dramatically altered our planet's land cover. To understand the 3 extent and spatial distribution of these changes, we have developed a new global data set of 4 croplands and pastures ca. 2000 by combining national and sub-national agricultural inventory 5 data and satellite-derived land cover data. The agricultural inventory data, with much greater 6 spatial detail than previously available, is used to train a land cover classification data set 7 obtained by merging two different satellite-derived products. By utilizing the agreement and 8 disagreement between Boston University's MODIS global land cover product and the GLC2000 9 data set, we are able to predict the spatial pattern of agricultural land better than by using either 10 data set alone. We present a new global 5 min (~10 km) resolution cropland and pasture dataset 11
Global assessment of agricultural system redesign for sustainable intensification
Nature Sustainability
The sustainable intensification (SI) of agricultural systems offers synergistic opportunities for the coproduction of agricultural and natural capital outcomes. Efficiency and Substitution are steps towards SI, but system Redesign is essential to deliver optimum outcomes as ecological and economic conditions change. We show global progress towards SI by farms and hectares, using seven SI sub-types: integrated pest management, conservation agriculture, integrated crop and biodiversity, pasture and forage, trees, irrigation management, and small/patch systems. From 47 SI initiatives at scale (each >10 4 farms or hectares), we estimate 163M farms (29% of all worldwide) have crossed a redesign threshold, practising forms of SI on 453Mha of agricultural land (9% of worldwide total). Key challenges include investing to integrate more forms of SI in farming systems, creating agricultural knowledge economies, and establishing policy measures to scale SI further. We conclude that SI may be approaching a tipping point where it could be transformative. Sustainable intensification (SI) is defined as an agricultural process or system where valued 87 outcomes are maintained or increased while at least maintaining and progressing to substantial 88 enhancement of environmental outcomes. It incorporates the principles of doing this without the 89 cultivation of more land (and thus loss of non-farmed habitats), in which increases in overall system 90 performance incur no net environmental cost (12-15). The concept is open, emphasising outcomes 91 rather than means, applying to any size of enterprise, and not predetermining technologies, 92 production type, or particular design components. SI seeks synergies between agricultural and 93 landscape-wide system components, and can be distinguished from earlier manifestations of 94 intensification because of the explicit emphasis on a wider set of environmental as well as socially-95 progressive outcomes. Central to the concept of SI is an acceptance that there will be no perfect end 96 point due to the multi-objective nature of sustainability. Thus, no designed system is expected to 97 succeed forever, with no package of practices fitting the shifting dynamics of every location. 98 99 SI is a necessary but not sufficient component of transformation in the wider food system. Changes in consumption behaviours (e.g., in animal products), as well as reductions in food waste, may make greater contributions to the overall sustainability of food and agriculture systems (7), as well as helping to address the challenge of over-consumption of calorie-dense food, which has become a global threat to health. System level changes will be necessary from production to consumption, and eating better is now a priority for affluent countries. At the farm and landscape level, the need for effective SI is nonetheless urgent. Pressure continues to grow on existing agricultural lands. Environmental degradation reduces the asset base (4, 16), expansion of urban and road infrastructure captures agricultural land (in the EU28, agricultural land area fell by 31Mha over 50 years from 1961; in the USA and Canada, 0.5Mha are lost annually (17-18)); and climate change and associated extreme weather create new stresses, testing the resilience of the global food system (19). Attempts to implement SI can result in beneficial outcomes for both agricultural output and natural capital (14, 20-21). The largest increases in food productivity have occurred in less developed countries, mostly starting from a lower output base. In industrialised countries, systems have tended to see increases in efficiency (lower costs), minimizing harm to ecosystem services, and often some reductions in crop and livestock yields (22). However, the global challenge is significant: planetary boundaries are under threat or have been exceeded, world population will continue to grow from 7.6 billion (2018) to 10 billion by 2050 (23), and consumption patterns are converging on those typical in affluent countries for some sections of populations, yet still leaving some 800 million people hungry worldwide. One question centres on scale: can agriculture still provide sufficient nutritious food whilst improving natural capital and not compromising other aspects of well-being; and can this occur at a scale to benefit millions of lives, reverse biodiversity loss and environmental contamination, and limit greenhouse gas emissions? A further question centres on how much wider food system changes towards healthier diets could shape the requirements for agricultural production to focus on both food and environmental outcomes: healthier diets tend to be higher in fruit, pulse and nut content, therefore more dependent on pollination services (24). Healthier diets could also generate enhanced consumer demand for lower pesticide residues. As SI is an umbrella term that includes a wide range of different agricultural practices and technologies, the precise extent of existing SI practice has been largely unknown. We use an
Advances in Ecological Research, 2020
Multiple anthropogenic challenges threaten nature's contributions to human well-being. Agricultural expansion and conventional intensification are degrading biodiversity and ecosystem functions, thereby undermining the natural foundations on which agriculture is itself built. Averting the worst effects of global environmental change and assuring ecosystem benefits, requires a transformation of agriculture. Alternative agricultural systems to conventional intensification exist, ranging from adjustments to efficiency (e.g. sustainable intensification) to a redesign (e.g. ecological intensification, climate-smart agriculture) of the farm management system. These alternatives vary in their reliance on nature or technology, the level of systemic change required to operate, and impacts on biodiversity, landscapes and agricultural production. Different socio-economic, ecological and political settings mean there is no universal solution, instead there are a suite of interoperable practices that can be adapted to different contexts to maximise efficiency, sustainability and resilience. Social, economic, technological and demographic issues will influence the form of sustainable agriculture and effects on landscapes and biodiversity. These include: (1) the socio-technical-ecological architecture of agricultural and food systems and trends such as urbanisation in affecting the mode of production, diets, lifestyles and attitudes; (2) emerging technologies, such as gene editing, synthetic biology and 3D bioprinting of meat; and (3) the scale or state of the existing farm system, especially pertinent for smallholder agriculture. Agricultural transformation will require multifunctional landscape planning with cross-sectoral and participatory management to avoid unintended consequences and ultimately depends on people's capacity to accept new ways of operating in response to the current environmental crisis.