The Pink Finger Utility Curve and other rational choices (original) (raw)

The utility curve of pink fingertips and other rational choices Many a time, I have heard the parable of the frog and the scorpion held out as an explanatory metaphor for the middle east. The scorpion, as the story goes, begs a ride across the Nile from a rather dubious frog; who finds the promises of future rewards somewhat disproportionate to the risks involved. The scorpion overcomes the frogs reluctance by explaining their joint passage is the ultimate hostage situation: " if I sting you, I will drown. " With this credible commitment in hand, the pair proceeded across the Nile. Halfway through, the scorpion stings the frog. " Why?!? " gasps the frog as he slips beneath the surface, " because this is the Middle East, " says the scorpion. And they drown. The morale of the story, the point to be underscored, is that the Middle East and those who live in it, are inherently irrational; culturally, historically and pathologically incapable of pursuing a rational course of action. Why else would the frog take this risk? Why else would the scorpion elect to drown? Our incredulity is based on the assumption that like the chicken, the optimal outcome was to get to the other side. We cannot fathom the horrors that could be lurking in the weeds. We assume they had agency and weren't being forced to flee. We don't consider the possibility that one bank was the frying pan and the other fire. Rational choice, after all, is a process of differentiating between the utility of the choices available. Your ideal preference can still be democracy, but that doesn't make civil war a superior choice to, hopefully, enlightened despotism. Better the stability that goes along with an 80 year old in a wheelchair , than the chaos next door.