The Dream of Security (original) (raw)
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The Arabist: Budapest Studies in Arabic
The terminology and theory of “regional security complexes” (RSC) may be new, yet, the underlying factors, causes and characteristics are as old as human civilization and/or the River Nile. Out of the eleven countries the Nile is flowing through, Ethiopia and Egypt – with in-between Sudan – are “hosting” the Blue Nile, which carries about 85% of all the river’s water. With both Egypt and Ethiopia trying to cope with a rapidly growing (exploding) population of already over one hundred million each, as well as the necessity of providing food and electricity, water sharing has become an imminent task and a direct threat for both. Thus, the recent – but already decade-long – hostility between Egypt and Ethiopia over the sharing of the water of the river resulted in the emergence of a new regional security sub-complex, that of the Nile basin.
EGYPT'S WATER PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS: THE HYDRO POLITICS OF THE NILE RIVER.
COVENANT UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, 2021
The Nile River dictated Egypt's fate for thousands of years. It lets life grow at its banks. The journey down the River Nile starts in Assuan-Assouan from the Nile Island of Elephantine to the Camel market in Daraw and unto Louxor with its famous temples and the Valley of the Kings which has been a major source of tourism and exploration for the nation of Egypt [Weeks, Hetherington, Bakhoum; 2014]. Near Amarna in Middle Egypt, the locals proudly preserve their traditions. The river then turns into a delta after Kairo (Le Caire) and enters the Mediterranean Sea after 6,853 kilometers. While some may perceive Egypt's attempt to monopolize the Nile as Cairo's quest for Hegemony, to others, it is merely a struggle for survival. As the Nile is Egypt's primary source of water. Furthermore, the dilemma of an increasing population and the continuous decline of the water supply has altogether made the survival of the region questionable. The middle east has experienced numerous environmental concerns and these concerns are so sensitive that they threaten the very survival of the region. Hence, beyond the Egyptian State, water resources have become increasingly scarce and the prospects of possible importation of water as a natural resource have become even more likely than ever. The majority of the countries in the middle east lack access to sanitary water; and in addition to its both strategic and controversial location, it is safe to say however wealthy the middle east is today, many of its member states face some degree of a water crisis. Nations such as Yemen, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iraq find themselves in more compound conditions as they face distinctive difficulty that require worldwide, instantaneous consideration. For this research, I will look to interrogate the dynamics of international relations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan with an appraisal as to the implications and repercussions of Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam.
Egypt and the Nile, Environment and Security
2012
Did the changing climate ignite the Arab Spring? Did failures of Egyptian agriculture and the global increase in food process accelerate the fall of the Mubarak regime? The causes of the wave of revolt sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa are complex and multiple. This reports highlits the fact that environmental security and the preservation and just distribution of basic resources are the keys to peace and stability.
Security as a threat to development: the geopolitics of water scarcity in the Nile River basin
Focus Paper - Royal Higher Institute for Defence, 2009
The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at the reasons which lay behind the sensitive geopolitical context of the water of the Nile. It will situate the discourse on ‘water wars’ within the framework of securitisation of water resources. This is further illustrated by the case of the Nile basin. Then the author will explore the possibilities/necessity for de-securitisation of water resources, with some conclusions for policies aimed at turning water into a resource for broader cooperation and integration.
Aquatic Sciences-Research Across Boundaries, 2005
The following paper examines the Nile question from an Egyptian perspective. The Nile is Egypt's main source of water, and 96 % of this water originates from outside of its territory. This explains why Aquatic Sciences of view, cooperation with the upstream Nile countries is the only way forward. Egypt's water policy focuses on demand management, environmental protection and international joint projects to increase the water supply (e.g. Jonglei canal).
African Security Review Hydropolitics of the Nile: The case of Ethiopia and Egypt
This article analyses the political relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt. It aims to provide an analytical framework to unpack this complex relationship and assess the impacts that the Nile River has on the nature of this relationship. It further identifies geopolitical factors determining the impacts of the Nile River on frameworks of actions and political opportunity structures in which political actors operate. Accordingly, the different combinations of these determinants lead to the formation of political actors and ensuing actions that can fuel conflict, sustain the status quo or build peace. The article seeks to provide tentative answers to the following questions: what can be done or what mechanisms might be used to reduce the risk of conflict? What parties should participate and what will be their roles? And how can modern technology and science contribute to a possible solution?
THE GERD CONFLICT: CHALLENGES TO EGYPT'S WATER SECURITY
Center for Middle East Studies, 2020
The phenomenon of conflict, within the international relations framework, has a set of intellectual theses that may contribute to the interpretation of the external behavior of states, within the priorities of national and international institutions in conflict resolution. Trying to simulate these theses is done to solve the conflict with the least possible losses. Therefore, we must understand the stage of severity of which this crisis has reached to tackle realities realistically, especially in the pre-armed conflict phases. In these earlier phases, the conflict management is broader particularly in adapting issues to pressures while retaining the ability to choose between alternatives that are available to each side involved directly or indirectly. In recent decades, access to energy resources has become the most important form and cause of conflicts and wars and, in the future, conflicts will be about the world’s most expensive natural resource, water. Water is a strategic necessity for all people as it is the basis of life on Earth. It is associated with socio-economic development as well as food and energy production and is at the heart of climate change adaptation. Water has also become a rights issue as the world’s population increases. With the need to create a balance between community requirements and the available resources, the challenges involved in the following years will be even more pressing. While water covers 72% of the earth’s surface, all freshwater represents only 2.8% of the overall volume. Of this 2.45% of the freshwater is represented as ice-shaped and groundwater. Thus, humans have only 0.35% of the world’s total water supply1. And according to FAO* this will be reduced during the coming years due to climate change. In return, 17 countries in the world suffer from a severe shortage of water resources, 12 of them are located in the Middle East and North Africa2. Hence the importance of establishing the GERD subject, the main cause of the conflict over the Nile waters between Egypt and Ethiopia, because Egypt is coming to a real problem that will affect its water security and its existence as a state. To understand it and the impacts on Egypt’s water security, we must go back in history.
The purpose of this study is to employ estimates of precipitation and temperature changes from a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to determine the potential effect of climate change on the carrying capacity (volume) of the Nile River throughout the 21 st Century. We employ estimates from 33 General Circulation Models (GCM), inclusive of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, within a Vensim model in order to model the dynamic interplay between climate change and river hydrology for the Nile River Basin. We subdivided the time periods into 30-year intervals for 2010-2039 (early century), 2040-2069 (mid century), and 2070-2099 (late century). Our analysis offers several key findings. First, precipitation is likely to increase throughout the Nile River Basin with the possible exception of Egypt. Second, temperature is likely to increase throughout the Nile River Basin with the most pronounced increases in Sudan and Egypt. Third, the effect of climate change on the Nile River is likely to result in a net increase in water within that portion of the region where the Nile originates but a net decrease in water among downstream countries in the region. We use these results to discuss the potential effect of the proposed reservoir fill rate for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is anticipated to be on-line in 2017.